Murray State at Middle Tennessee - 2023 Matchup Preview

Murray State Racers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -34.5 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Middle Tennessee 35 - Murray State: 14

Racers (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 16 - 41 (16 - 41 on Road)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MURR 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -6 (SP+ MTSU -9)
MTSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MURR Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Murray State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Thu 9/7	Murray State at Louisville	+43.5	55.5	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/16	Murray State at Middle Tennessee	+34.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Murray State's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MURR		0%	15.5	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	41	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU	.14	40%	22.4	40%	2.69	109	41%	265	3.45	.1	41%	30.9	40%	43%	3.63	58.8	1.4	2.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MURR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MURR Offense	2	15.5	15.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Defense	13	30.9	32.5	40.9%	3.63	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	43%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MURR Defense	2	41	41	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Offense	13	22.4	24	40.3%	3.45	1.4	20	374	109	265	3.2	40%	59%	40%	41%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Murray State	2	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Middle Tennessee	13	28:42	20.2	34%	58%	6.6	58.8	1.4	2.8	6.4	2.7	6	31.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MURR Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.64	55%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MURR Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Offense	13	40%	40%	34.7	109.5	3.2	20	.1	2.69	76%	12%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MURR Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Defense	13	58%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.25	1.6	33%	35%	.36	9%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MURR Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Offense	13	59%	41%	26.2	39.4	264.8	6.7	10.1	21	11	.21	1.5	33%	32%	.33	5%	1.9

Murray State's Power Ratings
Murray State's Power Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: 80.00 #179
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Murray State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Murray State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Murray State: Middle Tennessee: -5.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Murray State: Middle Tennessee: -9.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -5.82 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 487.98 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Murray State Scoring
Offense: 15.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 41 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Murray State's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 32
Murray State 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Middle Tennessee	35	Murray State	14	Middle Tennessee -34.5	Murray State	51.0	Under
2000	09/15	Middle Tennessee	44	Murray State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	2	0	0 Overs
Murray State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) MURR at (#101) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MURR	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#101
SP+SP+	NR	#100
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#125
OffenseOff	NR	#122
DefenseDef	NR	#107
Spec TeamsST	NR	#43
TalentTal	#179	#90
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#75

Murray State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Murray State on Offense


CategoryCat	MURR Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	#69
SP+SP+	NR	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Murray State Run Game


CategoryCat	MURR Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#93

Murray State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MURR Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MURR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#109	NR
SP+SP+	#92	NR
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MURR Def
Run GameRun	#96	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MURR Def
Pass GamePass	#59	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

MURR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Middle Tennessee -34.5 (51.0)
Middle Tennessee won vs Murray State this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Murray State in 2023 (35-14)

MURR's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
DJ Williams	221	352	63%	2846	22	5	8.1
Orion Phillips	1	1	100%	25	0	0	25.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Williams	145	847	18	5.8	75
Jawaun Northington	157	765	6	4.9	66
Q'Darryius Jennings	89	597	10	6.7	58
Kylan Galbreath	1	2	0	2.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cole Rusk	19	217	1	11.4	27
Q'Darryius Jennings	15	95	1	6.3	23
Kylan Galbreath	4	42	0	10.5	17
Jawaun Northington	4	29	1	7.3	13

View Murray State's Full Roster

MURR's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Caldra Williford	16	1	4
Nick Walker	4	0	0
Zayteak McGhee	3	0	0
Matt Maldonado	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Caldra Williford	16	1	4
Nick Walker	4	0	0
Zayteak McGhee	3	0	0
Matt Maldonado	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Caldra Williford	16	1	4
Justus Johnson	1	0	1
Nick Walker	4	0	0

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6