Middle Tennessee at Missouri - 2023 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Missouri Tigers

Missouri logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -21 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Missouri 23 - Middle Tennessee: 19

 
Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MTSU 2nd straight Road Game
MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Missouri -26  (SP+ MIZ -27)
Projected Score: MTSU: 12 - MIZ: 38 (51)
MIZ Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
MTSU Travel: 391 miles
Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Middle Tennessee at Alabama+39.552.0L 7 - 56ON
Sat 9/9 Middle Tennessee at Missouri+21.047.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/16 Middle Tennessee vs Murray State-34.551.0W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State-3.550.0L 23 - 31ON
Thu 9/28 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+6.561.0L 10 - 31UN
Wed 10/4 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State-2.552.0L 30 - 45ON
Tue 10/10 Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech-3.053.5W 31 - 23OY
Tue 10/17 Middle Tennessee at Liberty+16.056.5L 35 - 42OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.055.5L 7 - 13UN
Sat 11/11 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-10.550.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Middle Tennessee vs UTEP-8.548.5W 34 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston-3.549.5L 20 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Missouri's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Missouri vs South Dakota-27.044.5W 35 - 10ON
Sat 9/9 Missouri vs Middle Tennessee-21.047.5W 23 - 19UN
Sat 9/16 Missouri vs Kansas State+3.548.0W 30 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Missouri vs Memphis-6.552.0W 34 - 27OY
Sat 9/30 Missouri at Vanderbilt-14.053.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/7 Missouri vs LSU+6.063.5L 39 - 49ON
Sat 10/14 Missouri at Kentucky+1.550.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Missouri vs South Carolina-7.557.5W 34 - 12UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Missouri at Georgia+15.056.5L 21 - 30UY
Sat 11/11 Missouri vs Tennessee+1.058.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Missouri vs Florida-12.556.5W 33 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Missouri at Arkansas-9.553.5W 48 - 14OY
Fri 12/29 Missouri vs Ohio State+4.051.0W 14 - 3UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU.1440%22.440%2.6910941%2653.45.141%30.940%43%3.6358.81.42.8
MIZ.1641%30.241%2.8915641%2134.26.1538%18.937%39%3.863.71.51.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1322.420.840.3%3.451.4203741092653.240%59%40%41%18%.14
MIZ Defense1318.920.637.7%3.81.8 - - - - - 49%51%37%39%21%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1330.929.340.9%3.632.8 - - - - - 41%58%40%43%20%.1
MIZ Offense1330.239.540.6%4.261.5193701562134.151%48%41%41%17%.16

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1328:4220.234%58%6.658.81.42.86.42.7631.8
Missouri1331:0518.540%50%7.863.71.51.872.7328.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1340%40%34.7109.53.220.12.6976%12%1
MIZ Defense1349%37% - - - - .12.7267%14%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1341%40% - - - - .042.6455%10%0.95
MIZ Offense1351%41%37.9156.54.121.112.8970%13%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1359%41%26.239.4264.86.710.12111.211.533%32%.335%1.9
MIZ Defense1351%39% - - - - - - 11.221.634%28%.228%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1358%43% - - - - - - 20.251.633%35%.369%2
MIZ Offense1348%41%1930.1213.27.111.2139.251.634%33%.344%2

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24  #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27  #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72  #69
2023 Talent Rating: 487.98  #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4  #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24   Missouri: 17.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4   Missouri: 17.8




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 17.615  #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36  #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05  #38
2023 Talent Rating: 755.40  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 23  #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8  #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 38
Middle Tennessee 12

Projected Total Points: 51
Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Missouri23Middle Tennessee19Missouri -21Middle Tennessee47.5Under
201610/22Missouri45Middle Tennessee51Missouri -4Middle Tennessee72.0Over
200309/20Missouri41Middle Tennessee40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri201 Overs
Middle Tennessee121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#101) MTSU at (#14) MIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUMIZ
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #101 #14
SP+SP+ #100 #12
Perf GradeGrade #125 #19
OffenseOff #122 #14
DefenseDef #107 #49
Spec TeamsST #43 #67
TalentTal #90 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #30
Middle Tennessee on Offense
CategoryCat
MTSU OffMIZ Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #122 #49
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #109 #38
SP+SP+ #92 #23
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Middle Tennessee Run Game
CategoryCat
MTSU OffMIZ Def
Run GameRun #96 #78
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #72
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
CategoryCat
MTSU OffMIZ Def
Pass GamePass #59 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #35
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Missouri on Offense
CategoryCatMIZ OffMTSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #14 #107
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #15 #69
SP+SP+ #11 #89
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Missouri Run Game
CategoryCat
MIZ OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #53 #96
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #5 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #93
Missouri Pass Game
CategoryCatMIZ OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #18 #100
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #78
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Missouri -21.0 (47.5)
Missouri won vs Middle Tennessee this year (23-19)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (23-19)

  
MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato28642867%308723137.2
DJ Riles7888%78009.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)8942724.871
Nick Vattiato13940222.930
Frank Peasant8230643.737
Terry Wilkins1814618.175
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Holden Willis (Tr)46697515.262
Elijah Metcalf54634611.771
Justin Olson (Tr)43450110.542
DJ England-Chisolm28347312.472

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield827480
Jakobe Thomas713005
Tra Fluellen643013
Parker Hughes537321
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield827480
Richard Kinley207333
Zaylin Wood164322
Parker Hughes537321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quindarius Dunnigan349258
Tyrell Raby (Tr)290006
De'Arre McDonald184106

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brady Cook24336766%33022169.0
Sam Horn3650%54119.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cody Schrader2761617145.952
Brady Cook11331982.825
Nathaniel Peat7631734.219
Luther Burden III83804.820
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luther Burden III851205914.256
Theo Wease48661613.877
Mookie Cooper36447012.441
Marquis Johnson13383329.576

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylon Carlies645224
Joseph Charleston601034
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Charles Hicks5311221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Robinson4314960
Johnny Walker4311690
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)224430
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kris Abrams-Draine5030112
Daylan Carnell516387
Jaylon Carlies645224