Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee - 2023 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Wednesday, October 4th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -2.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Jacksonville State 45 - Middle Tennessee: 30 (Conference USA)

Gamecocks (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (11 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (30 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

JVST 2nd straight Road Game
MTSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Jacksonville State -4.5 (SP+ JVST -8.5)
Projected Score: JVST: 28 - MTSU: 24 (52)
MTSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
JVST Travel: 144 miles

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (32 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Jacksonville State vs UTEP	+1.5	54.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State	-20.0	55.0	W 49 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina	+13.5	61.0	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	51.0	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Jacksonville State at Sam Houston	-6.5	36.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Wed 10/4	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	+2.5	52.0	W 45 - 30	O	Y
Tue 10/10	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+7.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/17	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+7.5	60.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/25	Jacksonville State at Florida International	-9.0	48.0	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Jacksonville State at South Carolina	+15.5	55.0	L 28 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech	-8.5	53.5	W 56 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Jacksonville State at New Mexico State	+2.0	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana	-3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#103 (.13)	42% (65)	30.2	46% (41)	3.08 (73)	237	38% (101)	171	3.77 (79)	#10 (.07)	36% (15)	21.2	33% (6)	39% (39)	3.33 (24)	43.4	1.6	1.9
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	24.3	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	28.1	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)		49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)		44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	13	30.2	30.3	42.3%	3.77	1.6	22	408	237	171	4.8	61%	38%	46%	38%	16%	.13
MTSU Defense	12	28.1	24.8	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	13	21.2	27	35.9%	3.33	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	33%	39%	18%	.07
MTSU Offense	12	24.3	32.2	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	13	26:43	22.2	38%	52%	4.8	43.4	1.6	1.9	7	2.9	1	30.6
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	13	61% (8)	46% (41)	49.8	236.7	4.8	35 (5)	.18 (51)	3.08 (73)	72% (82)	9% (54)	0.99 (73)
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	13	50% (66)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (2)	2.45 (4)	71% (57)	12% (28)	0.85 (12)
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (101)	14	26.9	171	6.4	12.2	12 (113)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.6 (75)	31% (47)	30% (71)	.15 (119)	6% (90)	2 (90)
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	13	48% (53)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.27 (69)	1.7 (106)	35% (30)	25% (12)	.18 (10)	6% (68)	2 (63)
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -2.40 #79
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 13.61 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 1.52 #13
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Jacksonville State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
Jacksonville State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.7 #67
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #77
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -2.40 Middle Tennessee: -5.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -0.7 Middle Tennessee: -9.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -5.82 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Jacksonville State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Jacksonville State 28
Middle Tennessee 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Middle Tennessee 26
Jacksonville State 25

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Jacksonville State 28
Middle Tennessee 26

Total Points: 54

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/29	Middle Tennessee	21	Jacksonville State	24	Jacksonville State -4.5	Middle Tennessee	54.0	Under
2024	10/23	Jacksonville State	42	Middle Tennessee	20	Jacksonville State -20.5	Jacksonville State	64.5	Under
2023	10/04	Middle Tennessee	30	Jacksonville State	45	Middle Tennessee -2.5	Jacksonville State	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	0	1	1 Overs
Jacksonville State	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#79) JVST at (#101) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#101
SP+SP+	#67	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#125
OffenseOff	#68	#122
DefenseDef	#37	#107
Spec TeamsST	#124	#43
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Jacksonville State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense


CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#107
SuccessSuc	#65	#81
ExplosiveExp	#117	#23
PPAPPA	#103	#60
PowerPwr	#93	#69
SP+SP+	#77	#89
Pts POPPO	#79	#100
HavocHav	#66	#49

Jacksonville State Run Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#88
Run ExplRExp	#73	#13
PPAExp	#51	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#31
TackleTak	-	#93

Jacksonville State Pass Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#47
PPAExp	#119	#96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#78
F7 HavocF7	#54	#65
DB HavocDB	#90	#31

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#37
SuccessSuc	#104	#15
ExplosiveExp	#14	#80
PPAPPA	#95	#10
PowerPwr	#109	#13
SP+SP+	#92	#51
Pts POPPO	#115	#24
HavocHav	#89	#37

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#96	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#6
Run ExplRExp	#28	#12
PPAExp	#93	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#13
TackleTak	-	#73

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#106
PPAExp	#84	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#36
F7 HavocF7	#95	#28
DB HavocDB	#70	#68

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70°

Rematch from Week 6
Middle Tennessee -2.5 (52.0)
Jacksonville State won at Middle Tennessee this year (45-30)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee last year (42-20)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (45-30)

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zion Webb	111	220	51%	1437	6	8	6.5
Logan Smothers	66	117	56%	735	6	4	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Jackson	146	897	7	6.1	68
Zion Webb	132	708	7	5.4	61
Ron Wiggins	92	468	6	5.1	37
Anwar Lewis	93	452	3	4.9	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perry Carter	38	687	4	18.1	63
Quinton Lane	31	346	1	11.2	30
Sean Brown	19	294	5	15.5	58
Michael Pettway	17	196	1	11.5	37

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quae Drake	92	7	2	2	2
Kolbi Fuqua	86	6	3	6	1
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Jeremiah Harris	65	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Hardie	59	14	8	4	1
Curley Young Jr.	33	6	5	3	0
Jaylen Swain	30	7	4	4	2
Kamari Stephens	12	6	4	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derek Carter	44	2	0	0	8
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Kekoura Tarnue	53	2	1	0	4

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6