Maryland at Michigan State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Maryland -7 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Maryland 31 - Michigan State: 9 (Big Ten)

Terrapins (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (24 - 28)
Avg Score : 24 - 27 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 5.1 (#46)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU 4th straight Home Game
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
MD is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Maryland -11.5 (SP+ MD -16)
Projected Score: MD: 31 - MSU: 20 (51)
MD Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MD Travel: 471 miles

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MD Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Maryland's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Maryland vs Towson	-38.5	55.5	W 38 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/9	Maryland vs Charlotte	-24.5	50.0	W 38 - 20	O	N
Fri 9/15	Maryland vs Virginia	-16.5	48.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Maryland at Michigan State	-7.0	52.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Maryland vs Indiana	-14.5	50.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Maryland at Ohio State	+17.0	56.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Maryland vs Illinois	-13.5	52.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Maryland at Northwestern	-14.0	48.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Maryland vs Penn State	+8.5	50.5	L 15 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/11	Maryland at Nebraska	-1.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Maryland vs Michigan	+17.5	50.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Maryland at Rutgers	-2.0	45.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Maryland vs Auburn	+4.0	47.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Maryland's Schedule

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MD	.19	41%	23.5	42%	2.95	141	41%	260	4.19	.1	40%	26.5	41%	40%	3.44	71.1	1.2	1.6
MSU	.14	40%	24.6	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	29.9	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MD		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MD Offense	13	23.5	17.5	41%	4.19	1.2	20	402	141	260	3.9	46%	53%	42%	41%	17%	.19
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MD Defense	13	26.5	22.3	40.2%	3.44	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	40%	15%	.1
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Maryland	13	31:06	20.2	42%	61%	7.8	71.1	1.2	1.6	4.8	1.8	0	28.7
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MD Offense	13	46%	42%	36.1	141.3	3.9	23	.13	2.95	66%	12%	1.02
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MD Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.94	76%	9%	0.94
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MD Offense	13	53%	41%	22.6	34.3	260.2	7.6	11.5	21	8	.25	1.6	32%	25%	.23	5%	2.2
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MD Defense	13	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.16	1.4	32%	28%	.2	6%	1.9
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: 6.66 #31
Maryland's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Maryland's Defense Rating: 7.24 #40
2023 Talent Rating: 685.75 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #33
Maryland's 2023 Expected Record: 7.90 - 5.10
Maryland's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #20

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Maryland: 6.66 Michigan State: -3.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Maryland: 9.2 Michigan State: -6.9

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -3.64 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 747.34 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.3

Maryland's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Maryland 31
Michigan State 20

Projected Total Points: 51

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Michigan State	38	Maryland	28	Michigan State -4.0	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2024	09/07	Maryland	24	Michigan State	27	Maryland -7.5	Michigan State	44.5	Over
2023	09/23	Michigan State	9	Maryland	31	Maryland -7	Maryland	52.5	Under
2022	10/01	Maryland	27	Michigan State	13	Maryland -7.5	Maryland	58.5	Under
2021	11/13	Michigan State	40	Maryland	21	Michigan State -11.5	Michigan State	60.0	Over
2019	11/30	Michigan State	19	Maryland	16	Michigan State -21.5	Maryland	47.5	Under
2018	11/03	Maryland	3	Michigan State	24	Michigan State -3	Michigan State	43.0	Under
2017	11/18	Michigan State	17	Maryland	7	Michigan State -14	Maryland	44.5	Under
2016	10/22	Maryland	28	Michigan State	17	Michigan State -2.5	Maryland	49.0	Under
2015	11/14	Michigan State	24	Maryland	7	Michigan State -16	Michigan State	54.0	Under
2014	11/15	Maryland	15	Michigan State	37	Michigan State -10.5	Michigan State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	8	6	3 Overs
Maryland	3	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	5 - 6	4 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 7	6 - 5	3 - 1	3 - 4

(#31) MD at (#92) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MD	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#31	#92
SP+SP+	#33	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#67	#124
OffenseOff	#63	#125
DefenseDef	#57	#115
Spec TeamsST	#64	#68
TalentTal	#43	#27
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#34

Maryland Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Maryland on Offense


CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#115
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#82
SP+SP+	#50	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Maryland Run Game


CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#74

Maryland Pass Game


CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#54	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#57
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#127	#40
SP+SP+	#122	#20
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
Run GameRun	#122	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#20
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#77
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

MD 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Maryland 7.0 (52.5)
Maryland won at Michigan State this year (31-9)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Maryland last year (38-28)
Michigan State beat Maryland in 2024 (27-24)
Maryland beat Michigan State in 2023 (31-9)

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taulia Tagovailoa	290	437	66%	3377	25	11	7.7
Billy Edwards	10	30	33%	128	1	1	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	143	680	4	4.8	40
Colby McDonald	53	306	2	5.8	35
Antwain Littleton II	69	255	2	3.7	32
Billy Edwards	29	91	7	3.1	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeshaun Jones	56	790	4	14.1	64
Tai Felton	48	723	6	15.1	57
Kaden Prather (Tr)	42	666	5	15.9	57
Corey Dyches	49	491	2	10.0	44

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Beau Brade	75	4	0	6
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	3	1	1
Dante Trader Jr.	53	1	0	7
Tarheeb Still	45	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kellan Wyatt	34	7	5	3	1
Caleb Wheatland	41	6	4	2	1
Tre Colbert	27	3	3	0	0
Jaishawn Barham	37	3	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaquan Sheppard	31	3	1	8
Dante Trader Jr.	53	1	0	7
Beau Brade	75	4	0	6

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5