Penn State at Maryland - 2023 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland TerrapinsMaryland logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -8.5 (50.5) (-415)  Open: -10.0 | 50.0
Penn State 51 - Maryland: 15  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (34 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -13  (SP+ PSU -17)
Projected Score: PSU: 32 - MD: 19 (51)
PSU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
PSU Travel: 135 miles
Terrapins (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (24 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (32 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 5.1 (#46)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Maryland's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Maryland vs Towson-38.555.5W 38 - 6UN
Sat 9/9 Maryland vs Charlotte-24.550.0W 38 - 20ON
Fri 9/15 Maryland vs Virginia-16.548.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 Maryland at Michigan State-7.052.5W 31 - 9UY
Sat 9/30 Maryland vs Indiana-14.550.0W 44 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Maryland at Ohio State+17.056.5L 17 - 37UN
Sat 10/14 Maryland vs Illinois-13.552.0L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Maryland at Northwestern-14.048.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Maryland vs Penn State+8.550.5L 15 - 51ON
Sat 11/11 Maryland at Nebraska-1.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Maryland vs Michigan+17.550.5L 24 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Maryland at Rutgers-2.045.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 12/30 Maryland vs Auburn+4.047.5W 31 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Maryland's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)36.249% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)13.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
MD#43 (.24)44% (45)29.742% (76)3.07 (79)10845% (30)2794.15 (43)#24 (.11)41% (53)22.544% (81)39% (32)3.62 (53)56.51.61.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
MD#106 (.13)41% (92)41% (97)2.89 (94)11141% (74)2763.62 (95)#84 (.19)43% (86)42% (65)44% (107)4.34 (116)58.61.71.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1336.233.546.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
MD Defense1322.523.740.7%3.621.8 - - - - - 50%49%44%39%14%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1313.515.333.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
MD Offense1329.732.144%4.151.6213871082793.741%58%42%45%17%.24

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Maryland1327:5620.842%68%5.556.51.61.84.72.4230.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
MD Defense1350% (60)44% (81) - - - - .12 (57)3.17 (87)73% (72)8% (116)0.84 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
MD Offense1341% (121)42% (76)29.4108.43.720 (61).17 (54)3.07 (79)69% (101)10% (77)1.07 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
MD Defense1349% (57)39% (32) - - - - - - 17 (3).19 (22)1.5 (31)29% (118)30% (58).27 (45)6% (65)1.8 (12)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
MD Offense1358% (11)45% (30)23.636.7278.97.611.827 (25)13 (97).31 (56)1.5 (98)32% (65)35% (28).32 (73)6% (75)2 (94)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Maryland: 10.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Maryland: 9.2




Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: 10.43  #31
Maryland's Offense Rating: 18.55  #48
Maryland's Defense Rating: 7.24  #40
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #33
Maryland's 2023 Expected Record: 7.90 - 5.10
Maryland's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2  #33
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #50
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #20

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.3

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 32
Maryland 19

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 29
Maryland 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 29
Maryland 23

Total Points: 52
Maryland Scoring
Offense: 29.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.1
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.7

Maryland's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Penn State44Maryland7Penn State -26.5Penn State50.5Over
202311/04Maryland15Penn State51Penn State -8.5Penn State50.5Over
202211/12Penn State30Maryland0Penn State -10.5Penn State56.5Under
202111/06Maryland14Penn State31Penn State -10Penn State56.5Under
202011/07Penn State19Maryland35Penn State -27Maryland62.5Under
201909/27Maryland0Penn State59Penn State -6.5Penn State62.0Under
201811/24Penn State38Maryland3Penn State -12Penn State51.5Under
201711/25Maryland3Penn State66Penn State -23.5Penn State57.5Over
201610/08Penn State38Maryland14Penn State -3Penn State56.0Under
201510/24Maryland30Penn State31Penn State -7.5Maryland46.5Over
201411/01Penn State19Maryland20Penn State -2.5Maryland0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Maryland234 Overs
Penn State986 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 75 - 64 - 21 - 4
Road Teams7 - 46 - 54 - 12 - 4

(#5) PSU at (#31) MD
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUMD
Power RatePwr #5 #31
SP+SP+ #4 #33
Perf GradeGrade #6 #67
OffenseOff #27 #63
DefenseDef #4 #57
Spec TeamsST #8 #64
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #33
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCat
PSU OffMD Def
Perf GradePerf #27 #57
SuccessSuc #25 #53
ExplosiveExp #124 #8
PPAPPA #40 #24
PowerPwr #31 #40
SP+SP+ #26 #20
Pts POPPO #5 #53
HavocHav #4 #109
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffMD Def
Run GameRun #27 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #81
Run ExplRExp #123 #8
PPAExp #46 #57
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #87
Stuff RateStuff #2 #119
TackleTak -  #32
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffMD Def
Pass GamePass #34 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #32
Pass ExplPExl #115 #31
PPAExp #62 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #77
F7 HavocF7 #8 #116
DB HavocDB #7 #65
Maryland on Offense
CategoryCatMD OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #4
SuccessSuc #45 #3
ExplosiveExp #38 #101
PPAPPA #43 #8
PowerPwr #48 #2
SP+SP+ #50 #4
Pts POPPO #43 #15
HavocHav #80 #2
Maryland Run Game
CategoryCat
MD OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #70 #6
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #3
Run ExplRExp #32 #46
PPAExp #54 #7
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #79 #2
Stuff RateStuff #45 #3
TackleTak -  #34
Maryland Pass Game
CategoryCatMD OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #10
Pass ExplPExl #98 #94
PPAExp #56 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #1
F7 HavocF7 #77 #1
DB HavocDB #75 #86
Program Comparison
MD 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Maryland Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 69°
Rematch from Week 10
Penn State 8.5 (50.5)
Penn State won at Maryland this year (51-15)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Maryland last year (44-7)
Penn State beat Maryland in 2023 (51-15)
Penn State beat Maryland in 2022 (30-0)

  
PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taulia Tagovailoa29043766%337725117.7
Billy Edwards103033%128114.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Roman Hemby14368044.840
Colby McDonald5330625.835
Antwain Littleton II6925523.732
Billy Edwards299173.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeshaun Jones56790414.164
Tai Felton48723615.157
Kaden Prather (Tr)42666515.957
Corey Dyches49491210.044

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Brade754006
Ruben Hyppolite II663101
Dante Trader Jr.531007
Tarheeb Still452002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kellan Wyatt347531
Caleb Wheatland416421
Tre Colbert273300
Jaishawn Barham373331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquan Sheppard313108
Dante Trader Jr.531007
Beau Brade754006