Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Louisiana Tech -8.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Sam Houston 42 - Louisiana Tech: 27 (Conference USA)

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SHSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -3.5 (SP+ LT -1)
Projected Score: SHSU: 24 - LT: 27 (51)
LT Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
SHSU Travel: 211 miles

Bulldogs (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (5 - 11)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
LT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Louisiana Tech vs Florida International	-12.0	57.5	W 22 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/2	Louisiana Tech at SMU	+21.0	66.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/9	Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State	-23.0	58.5	W 51 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisiana Tech vs North Texas	-4.5	66.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Louisiana Tech at Nebraska	+20.5	44.5	L 14 - 28	U	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisiana Tech at UTEP	-2.0	49.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky	+6.0	59.0	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/10	Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee	+3.0	53.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/24	Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State	-3.0	55.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Louisiana Tech at Liberty	+16.5	58.0	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston	-8.5	49.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State	+8.5	53.5	L 17 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		35%	17.8	41%	2.69	0	30%	0	2.55	.06	35%	37.8	36%	35%	2.98	0	0	0
LT	.14	39%	27.3	40%	2.78	125	39%	267	3.34	.27	43%	20.8	46%	40%	4.14	63.9	2.1	2.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	1	17.8	15.1	35.3%	2.55	0	0	0	0	0	0	49%	51%	41%	30%	1398%
LT Defense	12	20.8	17.3	42.6%	4.14	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	46%	40%	14%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	1	37.8	39	35%	2.98	0	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	36%	35%	2884%	.06
LT Offense	12	27.3	36.5	38.9%	3.34	2.1	19	393	125	267	3.8	44%	55%	40%	39%	21%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30.1
Louisiana Tech	12	30:05	19.4	37%	45%	6.8	63.9	2.1	2.5	4.6	1.3	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	1	49%	41%	0	0	0	0	.08	2.69	71%	1396%	1.06
LT Defense	12	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	.33	3.36	81%	9%	1.25

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	1	45%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.36	70%	2882%	0.91
LT Offense	12	44%	40%	33.3	125.4	3.8	14	.11	2.78	58%	11%	1.03

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	1	51%	30%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-.07	1.6	36%	28%	.26	2%	2.2
LT Defense	12	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.24	1.7	34%	34%	.4	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	1	54%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.18	1.7	37%	25%	.22	2%	2.1
LT Offense	12	55%	39%	21.2	36.2	267.3	7.4	12.6	25	19	.25	1.8	32%	28%	.18	10%	2.1

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 240.42 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -9.92 Louisiana Tech: -8.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -13.5 Louisiana Tech: -12.5

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -8.065 #113
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 15.14 #80
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 14.18 #112
2023 Talent Rating: 433.72 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.5 #110
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #87
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.9 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 27
Sam Houston 24

Projected Total Points: 51

Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/31	Louisiana Tech	55	Sam Houston	14	Louisiana Tech -16.5	Louisiana Tech	48.0	Over
2024	10/29	Sam Houston	9	Louisiana Tech	3	Sam Houston -10.5	Louisiana Tech	45.5	Under
2023	11/11	Louisiana Tech	27	Sam Houston	42	Louisiana Tech -8.5	Sam Houston	49.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisiana Tech	1	2	2 Overs
Sam Houston	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#118) SHSU at (#113) LT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SHSU	LT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#113
SP+SP+	#112	#110
Perf GradeGrade	#103	#104
OffenseOff	#121	#89
DefenseDef	#28	#116
Spec TeamsST	#129	#76
TalentTal	#132	#105
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Sam Houston Injury Report

Louisiana Tech Injury Report

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#116
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#113	#112
SP+SP+	#120	#122
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LT Def
Run GameRun	#136	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#67

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LT Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisiana Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	LT Off	SHSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#89	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#80	#57
SP+SP+	#87	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisiana Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	LT Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#98	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#13

Louisiana Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	LT Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#81	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Louisiana Tech -8.5 (49.5)
Sam Houston won at Louisiana Tech this year (42-27)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat Sam Houston last year (55-14)
Sam Houston beat Louisiana Tech in 2024 (9-3)
Sam Houston beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (42-27)

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4

LT's OC Jake Brown (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	182	269	68%	2058	10	5	7.7
Jack Turner	84	147	57%	1017	5	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyre Shelton (Tr)	97	551	5	5.7	56
Keith Willis	51	288	7	5.6	68
Charvis Thornton	55	270	1	4.9	47
Keldric Moody	34	149	0	4.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Smoke Harris	83	796	4	9.6	64
Cyrus Allen	46	778	4	16.9	85
Kyle Maxwell	20	363	2	18.2	47
Tru Edwards	23	284	2	12.3	36

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Scott Power (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeslord Boateng (Tr)	93	9	1	0	1
Myles Heard (Tr)	88	6	0	3	4
Brevin Randle (Tr)	74	9	2	1	2
Cecil Singleton	74	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshon Hall	30	5	4	1	0
Rason Williams II	23	5	3	2	0
Jessie Evans	32	7	3	0	1
Brevin Randle (Tr)	74	9	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Willie Roberts	38	1	0	12
Michael Richard Jr.	32	2	2	7
Jhamal Shelby Jr.	9	1	0	4