Air Force at Sam Houston - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons vs Sam Houston Bearkats

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -13.5 (36.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 13 - Sam Houston: 3

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (25 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Game in Dome
Our Line: Air Force -14 (SP+ AFA -18.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 26 - SHSU: 12 (37)
AFA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
AFA Travel: 838 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 20 - 26 (27 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	27.8	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	18.2	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	20	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	26.2	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)		41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)		47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	27.8	24.8	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
SHSU Defense	12	26.2	29.2	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	18.2	18.6	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12
SHSU Offense	12	20	27.2	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Sam Houston: -11.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Sam Houston: -13.5

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -11.71 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 26
Sam Houston 12

Total Points: 37

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 19
Sam Houston 8

Total Points: 27

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 27
Sam Houston 21

Total Points: 48

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.2

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Sam Houston	3	Air Force	13	Air Force -13.5	Sam Houston	36.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	0	1	0 Overs
Air Force	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#69) AFA at (#118) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#69	#118
SP+SP+	#45	#112
Perf GradeGrade	#9	#103
OffenseOff	#7	#121
DefenseDef	#19	#28
Spec TeamsST	#38	#129
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Air Force Injury Report

Sam Houston Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#28
SuccessSuc	#31	#58
ExplosiveExp	#115	#39
PPAPPA	#26	#69
PowerPwr	#34	#57
SP+SP+	#76	#82
Pts POPPO	#52	#64
HavocHav	#3	#117

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#55
Run ExplRExp	#56	#82
PPAExp	#14	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#112
TackleTak	-	#13

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#24
PPAExp	#9	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#107
F7 HavocF7	#22	#119
DB HavocDB	#1	#87

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#19
SuccessSuc	#118	#38
ExplosiveExp	#120	#42
PPAPPA	#115	#28
PowerPwr	#113	#34
SP+SP+	#120	#29
Pts POPPO	#97	#85
HavocHav	#56	#113

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#136	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#16
Run ExplRExp	#130	#61
PPAExp	#129	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#44
TackleTak	-	#8

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#19
PPAExp	#81	#36
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#29
F7 HavocF7	#56	#93
DB HavocDB	#55	#103

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 94°

Rematch from Week 2
Air Force 13.5 (36.5)
Air Force won at Sam Houston this year (13-3)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Sam Houston in 2023 (13-3)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4