Jacksonville State at Sam Houston - 2023 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Sam Houston Bearkats

Thursday, September 28th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Jacksonville State -6.5 (36.5) (-258) Open: -6.5 | 36.5
Jacksonville State 35 - Sam Houston: 28 (Conference USA)

Gamecocks (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (11 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (30 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Jacksonville State -7.5 (SP+ JVST -13)
Projected Score: JVST: 23 - SHSU: 16 (39)
JVST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
JVST Travel: 610 miles

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 20 - 26 (27 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Jacksonville State vs UTEP	+1.5	54.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State	-20.0	55.0	W 49 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina	+13.5	61.0	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	51.0	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Jacksonville State at Sam Houston	-6.5	36.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Wed 10/4	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	+2.5	52.0	W 45 - 30	O	Y
Tue 10/10	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+7.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/17	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+7.5	60.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/25	Jacksonville State at Florida International	-9.0	48.0	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Jacksonville State at South Carolina	+15.5	55.0	L 28 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech	-8.5	53.5	W 56 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Jacksonville State at New Mexico State	+2.0	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana	-3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#103 (.13)	42% (65)	30.2	46% (41)	3.08 (73)	237	38% (101)	171	3.77 (79)	#10 (.07)	36% (15)	21.2	33% (6)	39% (39)	3.33 (24)	43.4	1.6	1.9
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	20	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	26.2	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)		49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)		44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)		41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)		47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	13	30.2	30.3	42.3%	3.77	1.6	22	408	237	171	4.8	61%	38%	46%	38%	16%	.13
SHSU Defense	12	26.2	29.2	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	13	21.2	27	35.9%	3.33	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	33%	39%	18%	.07
SHSU Offense	12	20	27.2	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	13	26:43	22.2	38%	52%	4.8	43.4	1.6	1.9	7	2.9	1	30.6
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	13	61% (8)	46% (41)	49.8	236.7	4.8	35 (5)	.18 (51)	3.08 (73)	72% (82)	9% (54)	0.99 (73)
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	13	50% (66)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (2)	2.45 (4)	71% (57)	12% (28)	0.85 (12)
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (101)	14	26.9	171	6.4	12.2	12 (113)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.6 (75)	31% (47)	30% (71)	.15 (119)	6% (90)	2 (90)
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	13	48% (53)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.27 (69)	1.7 (106)	35% (30)	25% (12)	.18 (10)	6% (68)	2 (63)
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -2.40 #79
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 13.61 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 1.52 #13
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Jacksonville State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
Jacksonville State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.7 #67
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #77
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -2.40 Sam Houston: -9.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -0.7 Sam Houston: -13.5

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.21 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Jacksonville State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Jacksonville State 23
Sam Houston 16

Total Points: 39

Based on Last 4 Games
Jacksonville State 18
Sam Houston 12

Total Points: 30

Based on Entire Season
Jacksonville State 29
Sam Houston 24

Total Points: 53

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.2

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/09	Sam Houston	27	Jacksonville State	29	Jacksonville State -7	Sam Houston	53.5	Over
2024	11/23	Jacksonville State	21	Sam Houston	11	Jacksonville State -5.5	Jacksonville State	57.5	Under
2023	09/28	Sam Houston	28	Jacksonville State	35	Jacksonville State -6.5	Jacksonville State	36.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	0	1	2 Overs
Jacksonville State	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1

(#79) JVST at (#118) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#118
SP+SP+	#67	#112
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#103
OffenseOff	#68	#121
DefenseDef	#37	#28
Spec TeamsST	#124	#129
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Jacksonville State Injury Report

Sam Houston Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense


CategoryCat	JVST Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#28
SuccessSuc	#65	#58
ExplosiveExp	#117	#39
PPAPPA	#103	#69
PowerPwr	#93	#57
SP+SP+	#77	#82
Pts POPPO	#79	#64
HavocHav	#66	#117

Jacksonville State Run Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#55
Run ExplRExp	#73	#82
PPAExp	#51	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#112
TackleTak	-	#13

Jacksonville State Pass Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#24
PPAExp	#119	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#107
F7 HavocF7	#54	#119
DB HavocDB	#90	#87

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#37
SuccessSuc	#118	#15
ExplosiveExp	#120	#80
PPAPPA	#115	#10
PowerPwr	#113	#13
SP+SP+	#120	#51
Pts POPPO	#97	#24
HavocHav	#56	#37

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#136	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#6
Run ExplRExp	#130	#12
PPAExp	#129	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#13
TackleTak	-	#73

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#106
PPAExp	#81	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#36
F7 HavocF7	#56	#28
DB HavocDB	#55	#68

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 88° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Jacksonville State 6.5 (36.5)
Jacksonville State won at Sam Houston this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston last year (21-11)
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (35-28)

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zion Webb	111	220	51%	1437	6	8	6.5
Logan Smothers	66	117	56%	735	6	4	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Jackson	146	897	7	6.1	68
Zion Webb	132	708	7	5.4	61
Ron Wiggins	92	468	6	5.1	37
Anwar Lewis	93	452	3	4.9	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perry Carter	38	687	4	18.1	63
Quinton Lane	31	346	1	11.2	30
Sean Brown	19	294	5	15.5	58
Michael Pettway	17	196	1	11.5	37

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quae Drake	92	7	2	2	2
Kolbi Fuqua	86	6	3	6	1
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Jeremiah Harris	65	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Hardie	59	14	8	4	1
Curley Young Jr.	33	6	5	3	0
Jaylen Swain	30	7	4	4	2
Kamari Stephens	12	6	4	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derek Carter	44	2	0	0	8
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Kekoura Tarnue	53	2	1	0	4

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4