Penn State at Ohio State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes(#1)

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -4.0 (47.0) (-180) Open: -10.0 | 45.5
Ohio State 20 - Penn State: 12 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (34 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Ohio State -4.5 (SP+ OSU -1)
Projected Score: PSU: 22 - OSU: 27 (49)
OSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 277 miles

Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 31 - 11 (38 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ohio State at Indiana	-30.0	59.0	W 23 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio State vs Youngstown State	-45.5	56.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Ohio State vs Western Kentucky	-29.5	65.0	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio State at Notre Dame	-3.0	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio State vs Maryland	-17.0	56.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio State at Purdue	-17.5	53.0	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ohio State vs Penn State	-4.0	47.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-14.5	48.0	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/4	Ohio State at Rutgers	-19.0	42.5	W 35 - 16	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ohio State vs Michigan State	-30.5	48.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-27.5	51.5	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ohio State at Michigan	+3.0	47.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Fri 12/29	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	36.2	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	13.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8
OSU	#14 (.31)	47% (22)	30.5	45% (49)	3.18 (57)	139	49% (12)	269	4.21 (36)	#5 (.03)	36% (11)	11.2	35% (12)	37% (17)	2.69 (5)	44.5	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	36.2	33.5	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25
OSU Defense	13	11.2	8.7	35.8%	2.69	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	35%	37%	15%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	13.5	15.3	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04
OSU Offense	13	30.5	38.3	46.6%	4.21	1	21	408	139	269	4.2	48%	51%	45%	49%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8
Ohio State	13	29:25	20.9	43%	56%	5.7	44.5	1	0.8	4.8	1.7	3	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)
OSU Defense	13	51% (85)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (18)	3.02 (52)	58% (7)	9% (103)	0.98 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)
OSU Offense	13	48% (83)	45% (49)	33.2	138.8	4.2	20 (61)	.15 (72)	3.18 (57)	78% (34)	7% (14)	0.84 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)
OSU Defense	13	49% (62)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.04 (1)	1.4 (2)	33% (51)	26% (21)	.15 (6)	7% (47)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)
OSU Offense	13	51% (49)	49% (12)	19.6	30.8	269.1	8.8	13.7	26 (31)	7 (21)	.5 (10)	1.7 (44)	28% (12)	34% (33)	.48 (23)	7% (95)	2 (99)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44 Ohio State: 27.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0 Ohio State: 26.7

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 27.55 #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07 #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66 #6
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 85 #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.3

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 27
Penn State 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 27
Penn State 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 24
Penn State 23

Total Points: 47

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 11.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.7

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Ohio State	38	Penn State	14	Ohio State -17.5	Ohio State	45.5	Over
2024	11/02	Penn State	13	Ohio State	20	Ohio State -3	Ohio State	47.5	Under
2023	10/21	Ohio State	20	Penn State	12	Ohio State -4.0	Ohio State	47.0	Under
2022	10/29	Penn State	31	Ohio State	44	Ohio State -15.5	Penn State	60.5	Over
2021	10/30	Ohio State	33	Penn State	24	Ohio State -18.5	Penn State	60.5	Under
2020	10/31	Penn State	25	Ohio State	38	Ohio State -13.0	NA	0
2019	11/23	Ohio State	28	Penn State	17	Ohio State -20.0	Penn State	59.0	Under
2018	09/29	Penn State	26	Ohio State	27	Ohio State -3	Penn State	68.5	Under
2017	10/28	Ohio State	39	Penn State	38	Ohio State -7	Penn State	57.5	Over
2016	10/22	Penn State	24	Ohio State	21	Ohio State -20	Penn State	55.0	Under
2015	10/17	Ohio State	38	Penn State	10	Ohio State -17.5	Ohio State	49.0	Under
2014	10/25	Penn State	24	Ohio State	31	Ohio State -11.5	Penn State	0
2013	10/26	Ohio State	63	Penn State	14	Ohio State -14	Ohio State	0
2012	10/27	Penn State	23	Ohio State	35
2011	11/19	Ohio State	14	Penn State	20
2010	11/13	Ohio State	38	Penn State	14
2009	11/07	Penn State	7	Ohio State	24
2008	10/25	Ohio State	6	Penn State	13
2007	10/27	Penn State	17	Ohio State	37
2006	09/23	Ohio State	28	Penn State	6
2005	10/08	Penn State	17	Ohio State	10
2004	10/30	Ohio State	21	Penn State	10
2003	11/01	Penn State	20	Ohio State	21
2002	10/26	Ohio State	13	Penn State	7
2001	10/27	Penn State	29	Ohio State	27
2000	09/22	Ohio State	45	Penn State	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	21	5	3 Overs
Penn State	5	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 11	8 - 4	4 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 15	4 - 8	1 - 4	3 - 4

(#5) PSU at (#3) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PSU	OSU
Power RatePwr	#5	#3
SP+SP+	#4	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#7
OffenseOff	#27	#19
DefenseDef	#4	#7
Spec TeamsST	#8	#14
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#2

Penn State Injury Report

Ohio State Injury Report

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	OSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#27	#7
SuccessSuc	#25	#11
ExplosiveExp	#124	#11
PPAPPA	#40	#5
PowerPwr	#31	#6
SP+SP+	#26	#3
Pts POPPO	#5	#5
HavocHav	#4	#85

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#12
Run ExplRExp	#123	#56
PPAExp	#46	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#86
TackleTak	-	#6

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#2
PPAExp	#62	#1
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#60	#12
F7 HavocF7	#8	#103
DB HavocDB	#7	#47

Ohio State on Offense


CategoryCat	OSU Off	PSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#19	#4
SuccessSuc	#22	#3
ExplosiveExp	#78	#101
PPAPPA	#14	#8
PowerPwr	#13	#2
SP+SP+	#25	#4
Pts POPPO	#36	#15
HavocHav	#29	#2

Ohio State Run Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#30	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#3
Run ExplRExp	#126	#46
PPAExp	#72	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#3
TackleTak	-	#34

Ohio State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#94
PPAExp	#10	#25
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#1
F7 HavocF7	#14	#1
DB HavocDB	#95	#86

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 60° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Ohio State -4.0 (47.0)
Ohio State won vs Penn State this year (20-12)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Penn State last year (20-13)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2023 (20-12)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2022 (44-31)

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	233	388	60%	2631	25	2	6.8
Beau Pribula	11	21	52%	149	4	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	172	902	6	5.2	50
Nicholas Singleton	171	752	8	4.4	24
Beau Pribula	56	329	6	5.9	39
Drew Allar	74	210	4	2.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	53	673	4	12.7	72
Tyler Warren	34	422	7	12.4	75
Theo Johnson	34	341	7	10.0	34
Nicholas Singleton	26	308	2	11.8	53

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Kobe King	59	6	2	1	0
Curtis Jacobs	50	9	3	5	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adisa Isaac	37	16	8	4	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5
John Dixon	26	6	5	0	3
Demeioun Robinson	15	8	4	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daequan Hardy	22	3	1	0	7
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyle McCord	229	348	66%	3170	24	6	9.1
Devin Brown	16	28	57%	217	2	1	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TreVeyon Henderson	156	926	11	5.9	75
DeaMonte Trayanum	85	373	3	4.4	40
Xavier Johnson	28	190	0	6.8	27
Miyan Williams	49	158	3	3.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.	67	1211	14	18.1	75
Cade Stover	41	576	5	14.0	49
Emeka Egbuka	41	514	4	12.5	28
Julian Fleming	26	271	0	10.4	37

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steele Chambers	83	2	0	1	1
Tommy Eichenberg	80	3	1	4	0
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	0	5
Cody Simon	57	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Sawyer	48	10	7	3	2
J.T. Tuimoloau	38	7	5	6	2
Tyleik Williams	54	10	3	1	5
Sonny Styles	53	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Denzel Burke	24	3	0	8
Josh Proctor	47	4	1	8
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	5