Penn State at Ohio State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes  Ohio State logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -4.0 (47.0) (-180)  Open: -10.0 | 45.5
Ohio State 20 - Penn State: 12  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Ohio State -4.5  (SP+ OSU -1)
Projected Score: PSU: 22 - OSU: 27 (49)
OSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 277 miles
Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Ohio State at Indiana-30.059.0W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/9 Ohio State vs Youngstown State-45.556.0W 35 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Ohio State vs Western Kentucky-29.565.0W 63 - 10OY
Sat 9/23 Ohio State at Notre Dame-3.055.5W 17 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Ohio State vs Maryland-17.056.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 10/14 Ohio State at Purdue-17.553.0W 41 - 7UY
Sat 10/21 Ohio State vs Penn State-4.047.0W 20 - 12UY
Sat 10/28 Ohio State at Wisconsin-14.548.0W 24 - 10UN
Sat 11/4 Ohio State at Rutgers-19.042.5W 35 - 16ON
Sat 11/11 Ohio State vs Michigan State-30.548.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 11/18 Ohio State vs Minnesota-27.551.5W 37 - 3UY
Sat 11/25 Ohio State at Michigan+3.047.0L 24 - 30ON
Fri 12/29 Ohio State vs Missouri-4.051.0L 3 - 14UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU.2643%3141%3.0318146%2534.61.0838%20.543%36%3.3948.31.12.7
OSU.3953%33.453%3.619253%2985.18.1136%9.335%37%4.02480.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.643.4%4.611.1214341812534.851%49%41%46%13%.26
OSU Defense139.37.435.7%4.021.5 - - - - - 50%50%35%37%19%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.238.5%3.392.7 - - - - - 41%59%43%36%25%.08
OSU Offense1333.441.652.8%5.180.8244911922985.450%50%53%53%12%.39

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1330:3321.238%70%5.348.31.12.77.83.2230.1
Ohio State1330:4523.845%71%5.6480.81.56.52.6231.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1351%41%37.6181.14.828.183.0375%8%1.17
OSU Defense1350%35% - - - - .052.5258%12%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1341%43% - - - - .132.6672%15%0.99
OSU Offense1350%53%35.8192.45.430.263.663%7%0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349%46%20.832.5252.57.812.2297.341.630%33%.425%2.1
OSU Defense1350%37% - - - - - - 11.181.733%24%.276%2.5
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1359%36% - - - - - - 14.061.537%29%.2911%2.1
OSU Offense1350%53%21.131.5298.39.514.2426.511.624%34%.515%2.2

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 858.06  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Ohio State: 27.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Ohio State: 26.7




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 27.55  #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07  #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66  #6
2023 Talent Rating: 974.79  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 85  #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7  #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8  #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 27
Penn State 22

Projected Total Points: 49
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Ohio State38Penn State14Ohio State -17.5Ohio State45.5Over
202411/02Penn State13Ohio State20Ohio State -3Ohio State47.5Under
202310/21Ohio State20Penn State12Ohio State -4.0Ohio State47.0Under
202210/29Penn State31Ohio State44Ohio State -15.5Penn State60.5Over
202110/30Ohio State33Penn State24Ohio State -18.5Penn State60.5Under
202010/31Penn State25Ohio State38Ohio State -13.0NA0
201911/23Ohio State28Penn State17Ohio State -20.0Penn State59.0Under
201809/29Penn State26Ohio State27Ohio State -3Penn State68.5Under
201710/28Ohio State39Penn State38Ohio State -7Penn State57.5Over
201610/22Penn State24Ohio State21Ohio State -20Penn State55.0Under
201510/17Ohio State38Penn State10Ohio State -17.5Ohio State49.0Under
201410/25Penn State24Ohio State31Ohio State -11.5Penn State0
201310/26Ohio State63Penn State14Ohio State -14Ohio State0
201210/27Penn State23Ohio State35
201111/19Ohio State14Penn State20
201011/13Ohio State38Penn State14
200911/07Penn State7Ohio State24
200810/25Ohio State6Penn State13
200710/27Penn State17Ohio State37
200609/23Ohio State28Penn State6
200510/08Penn State17Ohio State10
200410/30Ohio State21Penn State10
200311/01Penn State20Ohio State21
200210/26Ohio State13Penn State7
200110/27Penn State29Ohio State27
200009/22Ohio State45Penn State6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State2153 Overs
Penn State577 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 118 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 154 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#5) PSU at (#3) OSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUOSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #5 #3
SP+SP+ #4 #3
Perf GradeGrade #6 #7
OffenseOff #27 #19
DefenseDef #4 #7
Spec TeamsST #8 #14
TalentTal #13 #3
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #2
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #7
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #31 #6
SP+SP+ #26 #3
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #27 #13
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #6
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #34 #6
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #12
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Ohio State on Offense
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #19 #4
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #13 #2
SP+SP+ #25 #4
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Ohio State Run Game
CategoryCat
OSU OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #30 #6
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Ohio State Pass Game
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #39 #19
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #64 #1
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Ohio State -4.0 (47.0)
Ohio State won vs Penn State this year (20-12)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Penn State last year (38-14)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2024 (20-13)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2023 (20-12)

  
PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kyle McCord22934866%31702469.1
Devin Brown162857%217217.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TreVeyon Henderson156926115.975
DeaMonte Trayanum8537334.440
Xavier Johnson2819006.827
Miyan Williams4915833.212
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.6712111418.175
Cade Stover41576514.049
Emeka Egbuka41514412.528
Julian Fleming26271010.437

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steele Chambers832011
Tommy Eichenberg803140
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)591005
Cody Simon572002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Sawyer4810732
J.T. Tuimoloau387562
Tyleik Williams5410315
Sonny Styles535201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Denzel Burke243008
Josh Proctor474018
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)591005