Penn State at Michigan State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans  Michigan State logo
Friday, November 24th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Penn State -20 (42.0) (-2400)  Open: -13.0
Penn State 42 - Michigan State: 0  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU is playing their 7th straight game
PSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -29.5  (SP+ PSU -33)
Projected Score: PSU: 39 - MSU: 10 (49)
PSU Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
PSU Travel: 288 miles
Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Michigan State vs Central Michigan-14.045.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Michigan State vs Richmond-29.543.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/16 Michigan State vs Washington+14.557.0L 7 - 41UN
Sat 9/23 Michigan State vs Maryland+7.052.5L 9 - 31UN
Sat 9/30 Michigan State at Iowa+10.036.5L 16 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Michigan State at Rutgers+4.038.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/21 Michigan State vs Michigan+25.547.0L 0 - 49ON
Sat 10/28 Michigan State at Minnesota+6.541.5L 12 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Michigan State vs Nebraska+3.034.5W 20 - 17OY
Sat 11/11 Michigan State at Ohio State+30.548.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 11/18 Michigan State at Indiana+3.547.5W 24 - 21UY
Fri 11/24 Michigan State vs Penn State+20.042.0L 0 - 42UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU.2643%3141%3.0318146%2534.61.0838%20.543%36%3.3948.31.12.7
MSU.1440%24.639%2.711342%2403.77.2646%29.943%49%3.8154.51.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.643.4%4.611.1214341812534.851%49%41%46%13%.26
MSU Defense1229.927.845.8%3.811.3 - - - - - 54%46%43%49%15%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.238.5%3.392.7 - - - - - 41%59%43%36%25%.08
MSU Offense1224.624.839.9%3.771.3203531132403.844%55%39%42%16%.14

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1330:3321.238%70%5.348.31.12.77.83.2230.1
Michigan State1226:1220.139%43%5.854.51.31.36.32.4128.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1351%41%37.6181.14.828.183.0375%8%1.17
MSU Defense1254%43% - - - - .113.0463%11%0.96
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1341%43% - - - - .132.6672%15%0.99
MSU Offense1244%39%30.11133.816.052.763%9%0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349%46%20.832.5252.57.812.2297.341.630%33%.425%2.1
MSU Defense1246%49% - - - - - - 2.451.629%35%.484%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1359%36% - - - - - - 14.061.537%29%.2911%2.1
MSU Offense1255%42%21.534.3240711.22312.241.532%31%.287%2

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 858.06  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Michigan State: -6.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Michigan State: -6.9




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -6.14  #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07  #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68  #82
2023 Talent Rating: 747.34  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 18  #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 39
Michigan State 10

Projected Total Points: 49
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Michigan State10Penn State28Penn State -7Penn State48.5Under
202311/24Michigan State0Penn State42Penn State -20Penn State42.0Push
202211/26Penn State35Michigan State16Penn State -19Push54.5Under
202111/27Michigan State30Penn State27Penn State -3.5Michigan State51.5Over
202012/12Penn State39Michigan State24Penn State -14.5Penn State45.5Over
201910/26Michigan State7Penn State28Penn State -5.5Penn State41.0Under
201810/13Penn State17Michigan State21Penn State -13.5Michigan State53.5Under
201711/04Michigan State27Penn State24Penn State -10Michigan State46.0Over
201611/26Penn State45Michigan State12Penn State -13.5Penn State53.5Over
201511/28Michigan State55Penn State16Michigan State -11Michigan State43.5Over
201411/29Penn State10Michigan State34Michigan State -11.5Michigan State0
201011/27Penn State22Michigan State28
200911/21Michigan State14Penn State42
200811/22Penn State49Michigan State18
200711/17Michigan State35Penn State31
200611/18Penn State17Michigan State13
200511/19Michigan State22Penn State31
200411/20Penn State37Michigan State13
200311/22Michigan State41Penn State10
200111/24Michigan State37Penn State42
200011/17Penn State42Michigan State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State855 Overs
Penn State1354 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 95 - 53 - 12 - 4
Road Teams9 - 125 - 54 - 21 - 3

(#5) PSU at (#92) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #5 #92
SP+SP+ #4 #86
Perf GradeGrade #6 #124
OffenseOff #27 #125
DefenseDef #4 #115
Spec TeamsST #8 #68
TalentTal #13 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #34
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #115
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #31 #82
SP+SP+ #26 #47
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #27 #56
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #74
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #34 #133
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #70
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Michigan State on Offense
CategoryCatMSU OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #125 #4
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #127 #2
SP+SP+ #122 #4
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Michigan State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSU OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #122 #6
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Michigan State Pass Game
CategoryCatMSU OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #130 #19
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #113 #1
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Penn State 20.0 (42.0)
Penn State won at Michigan State this year (42-0)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Michigan State last year (28-10)
Penn State beat Michigan State in 2023 (42-0)

  
PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser11319359%1098655.7
Noah Kim9116057%1090666.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)18679244.344
Jalen Berger259313.712
Jaren Mangham (Tr)307102.48
Sam Leavitt136705.222
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Montorie Foster43575313.442
Maliq Carr32335310.536
Tre Mosley28288210.330
Jaron Glover14261018.633

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cal Haladay916110
Angelo Grose723105
Malik Spencer722016
Jordan Hall678501
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Brule649512
Jordan Hall678501
Simeon Barrow Jr.366470
Brandon Wright192251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Tatum453017
Malik Spencer722016
Angelo Grose723105