Michigan State at Ohio State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio State -30.5 (48.5) (-20000) Open: -25.5
Ohio State 38 - Michigan State: 3 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OSU is playing their 6th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -33.5 (SP+ OSU -34)
Projected Score: MSU: 8 - OSU: 42 (50)
OSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
MSU Travel: 203 miles

Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ohio State at Indiana	-30.0	59.0	W 23 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio State vs Youngstown State	-45.5	56.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Ohio State vs Western Kentucky	-29.5	65.0	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio State at Notre Dame	-3.0	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio State vs Maryland	-17.0	56.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio State at Purdue	-17.5	53.0	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ohio State vs Penn State	-4.0	47.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-14.5	48.0	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/4	Ohio State at Rutgers	-19.0	42.5	W 35 - 16	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ohio State vs Michigan State	-30.5	48.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-27.5	51.5	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ohio State at Michigan	+3.0	47.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Fri 12/29	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.14	40%	24.6	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	29.9	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3
OSU	.39	53%	33.4	53%	3.6	192	53%	298	5.18	.11	36%	9.3	35%	37%	4.02	48	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	24.6	21.6	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14
OSU Defense	13	9.3	7.4	35.7%	4.02	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	35%	37%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	29.9	32.8	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26
OSU Offense	13	33.4	41.6	52.8%	5.18	0.8	24	491	192	298	5.4	50%	50%	53%	53%	12%	.39

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1
Ohio State	13	30:45	23.8	45%	71%	5.6	48	0.8	1.5	6.5	2.6	2	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96
OSU Defense	13	50%	35%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.52	58%	12%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96
OSU Offense	13	50%	53%	35.8	192.4	5.4	30	.26	3.6	63%	7%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2
OSU Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.18	1.7	33%	24%	.27	6%	2.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1
OSU Offense	13	50%	53%	21.1	31.5	298.3	9.5	14.2	42	6	.51	1.6	24%	34%	.51	5%	2.2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 747.34 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Ohio State: 27.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Ohio State: 26.7

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 27.55 #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07 #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66 #6
2023 Talent Rating: 974.79 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 85 #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 42
Michigan State 8

Projected Total Points: 50

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Michigan State	7	Ohio State	38	Ohio State -23.5	Ohio State	48.5	Under
2023	11/11	Ohio State	38	Michigan State	3	Ohio State -30.5	Ohio State	48.5	Under
2022	10/08	Michigan State	20	Ohio State	49	Ohio State -27	Ohio State	64.5	Over
2021	11/20	Ohio State	56	Michigan State	7	Ohio State -19.5	Ohio State	70.5	Under
2020	12/05	Michigan State	12	Ohio State	52	Ohio State -22.5	Ohio State	59.0	Over
2019	10/05	Ohio State	34	Michigan State	10	Ohio State -19	Ohio State	51.0	Under
2018	11/10	Michigan State	6	Ohio State	26	Ohio State -3	Ohio State	50.0	Under
2017	11/11	Ohio State	48	Michigan State	3	Ohio State -17.5	Ohio State	56.5	Under
2016	11/19	Michigan State	16	Ohio State	17	Ohio State -23.5	Michigan State	50.0	Under
2015	11/21	Ohio State	14	Michigan State	17	Ohio State -13	Michigan State	53.5	Under
2014	11/08	Michigan State	37	Ohio State	49	Michigan State -2	Ohio State	0
2013	12/07	Michigan State	34	Ohio State	24	Ohio State -6.5	Michigan State	0
2012	09/29	Michigan State	16	Ohio State	17
2011	10/01	Ohio State	7	Michigan State	10
2008	10/18	Michigan State	7	Ohio State	45
2007	10/20	Ohio State	24	Michigan State	17
2006	10/14	Michigan State	7	Ohio State	38
2005	10/15	Ohio State	35	Michigan State	24
2004	11/06	Michigan State	19	Ohio State	32
2003	11/08	Ohio State	33	Michigan State	23
2000	11/03	Ohio State	27	Michigan State	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	18	9	2 Overs
Michigan State	3	3	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 12	6 - 6	4 - 2	2 - 4
Road Teams	12 - 9	6 - 6	4 - 2	2 - 4

(#92) MSU at (#3) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	OSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#3
SP+SP+	#86	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#7
OffenseOff	#125	#19
DefenseDef	#115	#7
Spec TeamsST	#68	#14
TalentTal	#27	#3
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#2

Michigan State Injury Report

Ohio State Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#7
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#127	#6
SP+SP+	#122	#3
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#122	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#6

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#12
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ohio State on Offense


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#115
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#13	#82
SP+SP+	#25	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ohio State Run Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#30	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#74

Ohio State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Ohio State -30.5 (48.5)
Ohio State won vs Michigan State this year (38-3)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Michigan State in 2024 (38-7)
Ohio State beat Michigan State in 2023 (38-3)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyle McCord	229	348	66%	3170	24	6	9.1
Devin Brown	16	28	57%	217	2	1	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TreVeyon Henderson	156	926	11	5.9	75
DeaMonte Trayanum	85	373	3	4.4	40
Xavier Johnson	28	190	0	6.8	27
Miyan Williams	49	158	3	3.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.	67	1211	14	18.1	75
Cade Stover	41	576	5	14.0	49
Emeka Egbuka	41	514	4	12.5	28
Julian Fleming	26	271	0	10.4	37

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steele Chambers	83	2	0	1	1
Tommy Eichenberg	80	3	1	4	0
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	0	5
Cody Simon	57	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Sawyer	48	10	7	3	2
J.T. Tuimoloau	38	7	5	6	2
Tyleik Williams	54	10	3	1	5
Sonny Styles	53	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Denzel Burke	24	3	0	8
Josh Proctor	47	4	1	8
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	5