Michigan State at Indiana - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers(#2)

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Indiana -3.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Michigan State 24 - Indiana: 21 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 16 - 28 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU 2nd straight Road Game
IND is playing their 6th straight game
MSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Indiana -1.5 (SP+ MSU -0.5)
Projected Score: MSU: 22 - IND: 24 (46)
IND Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 267 miles

Hoosiers (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tom Allen (31 - 42)
Avg Score : 22 - 30 (21 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
IND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Indiana's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Indiana vs Ohio State	+30.0	59.0	L 3 - 23	U	Y
Fri 9/8	Indiana vs Indiana State	-31.0	44.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Indiana vs Louisville	+10.0	51.0	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Indiana vs Akron	-16.5	45.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/30	Indiana at Maryland	+14.5	50.0	L 17 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Indiana at Michigan	+33.5	45.5	L 7 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	Indiana vs Rutgers	+6.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/28	Indiana at Penn State	+31.0	45.0	L 24 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Indiana vs Wisconsin	+9.5	45.0	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Indiana at Illinois	+4.5	43.5	L 45 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Indiana vs Michigan State	-3.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/25	Indiana at Purdue	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#131 (.03)	38% (115)	15.9	38% (122)	2.84 (114)	89	38% (99)	197	2.97 (125)	#75 (.19)	44% (95)	28.3	45% (85)	44% (105)	3.89 (76)	59	1.8	1.3
IND	#106 (.12)	41% (85)	22.2	39% (117)	3.26 (38)	121	44% (48)	212	3.11 (119)	#103 (.24)	46% (120)	29.9	47% (109)	45% (118)	4.08 (95)	51	1.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
IND	#6 (.33)	52% (2)		50% (13)	3.09 (55)	166	56% (2)	261	5.03 (1)	#19 (.09)	38% (24)		35% (7)	40% (70)	3.66 (55)	43.9	0.7	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	15.9	15.8	37.6%	2.97	1.8	17	286	89	197	2.9	45%	54%	38%	38%	19%	.03
IND Defense	12	29.9	21	45.8%	4.08	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	47%	45%	17%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	28.3	27.8	43.9%	3.89	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	45%	44%	16%	.19
IND Offense	12	22.2	21.3	40.9%	3.11	1.5	20	334	121	212	3.4	50%	49%	39%	44%	17%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	28:05	16.5	30%	50%	6.8	59	1.8	1.3	5.6	2.5	0	27.6
Indiana	12	29:25	19.7	37%	35%	5.5	51	1.5	1	6.1	1.8	2	26.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	45% (104)	38% (122)	30.9	88.7	2.9	7 (131)	-.03 (131)	2.84 (114)	76% (50)	12% (119)	0.85 (124)
IND Defense	12	52% (96)	47% (109)	-	-	-	-	.14 (65)	3.24 (100)	75% (80)	10% (58)	0.85 (14)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	48% (48)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (83)	3.28 (106)	87% (128)	10% (72)	0.93 (35)
IND Offense	12	50% (68)	39% (117)	36.2	121.3	3.4	13 (108)	.07 (112)	3.26 (38)	69% (105)	11% (83)	0.91 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	54% (33)	38% (99)	18.5	31.8	197.2	6.2	10.7	14 (106)	13 (97)	.17 (101)	1.4 (121)	35% (113)	26% (107)	.16 (115)	7% (105)	2 (97)
IND Defense	12	47% (36)	45% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.39 (117)	1.6 (77)	29% (115)	33% (104)	.41 (110)	6% (69)	2.2 (103)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	51% (85)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (78)	1.5 (26)	29% (116)	32% (92)	.36 (92)	6% (66)	2 (58)
IND Offense	12	49% (70)	44% (48)	17.9	30.5	212.3	7	11.9	18 (81)	10 (56)	.26 (76)	1.5 (119)	30% (43)	28% (91)	.16 (118)	6% (82)	1.9 (107)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Indiana: -4.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Indiana: -7.4

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: -4.57 #98
Indiana's Offense Rating: 13.48 #95
Indiana's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #41
Indiana's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Indiana's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #103
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 15.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Indiana 24
Michigan State 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Indiana 27
Michigan State 18

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Indiana 25
Michigan State 21

Total Points: 46

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.3
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Indiana's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Indiana	38	Michigan State	13	Indiana -26.5	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2024	11/02	Michigan State	10	Indiana	47	Indiana -7.5	Indiana	53.5	Over
2023	11/18	Indiana	21	Michigan State	24	Indiana -3.5	Michigan State	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Michigan State	31	Indiana	39	Michigan State -12	Indiana	47.0	Over
2021	10/16	Indiana	15	Michigan State	20	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	48.5	Under
2020	11/14	Michigan State	0	Indiana	24	Indiana -7.5	Indiana	53.0	Under
2019	09/28	Michigan State	40	Indiana	31	Michigan State -14	Indiana	43.5	Over
2018	09/22	Indiana	21	Michigan State	35	Michigan State -5.5	Michigan State	51.0	Over
2017	10/21	Michigan State	17	Indiana	9	Michigan State -6.5	Michigan State	47.5	Under
2016	10/01	Indiana	24	Michigan State	21	Michigan State -8	Indiana	52.5	Under
2015	10/24	Michigan State	52	Indiana	26	Michigan State -17	Michigan State	59.0	Over
2014	10/18	Indiana	17	Michigan State	56	Michigan State -14	Michigan State	0
2013	10/12	Michigan State	42	Indiana	28	Michigan State -7.5	Michigan State	0
2012	10/06	Indiana	27	Michigan State	31
2011	11/19	Michigan State	55	Indiana	3
2008	09/27	Indiana	29	Michigan State	42
2007	10/13	Michigan State	52	Indiana	27
2006	10/28	Indiana	46	Michigan State	21
2005	10/29	Michigan State	46	Indiana	15
2004	09/25	Indiana	20	Michigan State	30
2003	10/04	Michigan State	31	Indiana	3
2002	11/09	Indiana	21	Michigan State	56
2001	11/10	Michigan State	28	Indiana	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Indiana	7	5	6 Overs
Michigan State	16	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	4 - 9	3 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	12 - 11	9 - 4	5 - 1	4 - 3

(#92) MSU at (#98) IND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	IND
Power RatePwr	#92	#98
SP+SP+	#86	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#101
OffenseOff	#125	#96
DefenseDef	#115	#104
Spec TeamsST	#68	#83
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#41

Michigan State Injury Report

Indiana Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Perf GradePerf	#125	#104
SuccessSuc	#115	#120
ExplosiveExp	#119	#26
PPAPPA	#131	#103
PowerPwr	#127	#114
SP+SP+	#122	#72
Pts POPPO	#125	#95
HavocHav	#115	#59

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#122	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	#109
Run ExplRExp	#124	#14
PPAExp	#131	#65
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#100
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#81
TackleTak	-	#64

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#77
PPAExp	#101	#117
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#132
F7 HavocF7	#119	#58
DB HavocDB	#105	#69

Indiana on Offense


CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#115
SuccessSuc	#85	#95
ExplosiveExp	#114	#24
PPAPPA	#106	#75
PowerPwr	#95	#82
SP+SP+	#103	#47
Pts POPPO	#119	#76
HavocHav	#88	#68

Indiana Run Game


CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#130	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#85
Run ExplRExp	#108	#35
PPAExp	#112	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#38	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#111
TackleTak	-	#74

Indiana Pass Game


CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#80	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#105
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#26
PPAExp	#76	#78
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#70
F7 HavocF7	#83	#72
DB HavocDB	#82	#66

Program Comparison
IND 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50°

Rematch from Week 12
Indiana -3.5 (47.5)
Michigan State won at Indiana this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Michigan State last year (47-10)
Michigan State beat Indiana in 2023 (24-21)
Indiana beat Michigan State in 2022 (39-31)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5

IND's OC Walt Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	135	236	57%	1582	15	5	6.7
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	78	128	61%	914	2	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trenten Howland	76	354	2	4.7	19
Josh Henderson	81	337	2	4.2	29
Brendan Sorsby	113	291	4	2.6	25
Jaylin Lucas	67	275	2	4.1	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donaven McCulley	48	644	6	13.4	69
Dequece Carter (Tr)	27	395	3	14.6	90
Cam Camper	17	285	1	16.8	41
E.J. Williams (Tr)	23	276	0	12.0	27

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Matt Guerrieri (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Casey	108	20	7	1	3
Louis Moore	84	1	0	0	1
Jacob Mangum-Farrar (Tr)	62	4	0	3	4
Phillip Dunnam	53	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Casey	108	20	7	1	3
Lanell Carr (Tr)	33	9	5	2	2
Andre Carter (Tr)	49	11	2	3	3
Myles Jackson	25	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Phillip Dunnam	53	1	0	6
Jacob Mangum-Farrar (Tr)	62	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	29	0	0	4