Michigan State at Rutgers - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Rutgers -4 (38.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Rutgers 27 - Michigan State: 24 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 16 - 28 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Predicted
MSU coming off BYE
RUTG is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Rutgers -9.5 (SP+ RUTG -9)
Projected Score: MSU: 17 - RUTG: 26 (43)
RUTG Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 539 miles

Scarlet Knights (7 - 6) (7 - 4 - 2)
Coach Greg Schiano (15 - 22)
Avg Score : 23 - 21 (31 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 7.2 (#81)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
RUTG Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Rutgers's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Rutgers vs Northwestern	-5.0	39.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rutgers vs Temple	-7.5	43.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Rutgers vs Virginia Tech	-6.5	37.5	W 35 - 16	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rutgers at Michigan	+24.0	44.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Rutgers vs Wagner	-46.0	52.5	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Rutgers at Wisconsin	+12.5	44.0	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Rutgers vs Michigan State	-4.0	38.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/21	Rutgers at Indiana	-6.0	39.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Rutgers vs Ohio State	+19.0	42.5	L 16 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rutgers at Iowa	-2.5	27.5	L 0 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rutgers at Penn State	+19.5	39.5	L 6 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Rutgers vs Maryland	+2.0	45.5	L 24 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/28	Rutgers vs Miami	-3.0	41.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#131 (.03)	38% (115)	15.9	38% (122)	2.84 (114)	89	38% (99)	197	2.97 (125)	#75 (.19)	44% (95)	28.3	45% (85)	44% (105)	3.89 (76)	59	1.8	1.3
RUTG	#107 (.12)	40% (91)	23.2	43% (65)	3.03 (84)	169	35% (118)	138	3.95 (62)	#43 (.14)	45% (104)	21.2	48% (123)	42% (69)	3.48 (44)	45.2	1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
RUTG	#84 (.16)	43% (67)		44% (69)	2.92 (88)	164	42% (63)	189	4.19 (44)	#106 (.23)	43% (85)		48% (113)	40% (59)	4.03 (92)	33.8	0.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	15.9	15.8	37.6%	2.97	1.8	17	286	89	197	2.9	45%	54%	38%	38%	19%	.03
RUTG Defense	13	21.2	19.1	44.6%	3.48	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	42%	15%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	28.3	27.8	43.9%	3.89	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	45%	44%	16%	.19
RUTG Offense	13	23.2	30.6	40.1%	3.95	1	17	306	169	138	4.2	62%	38%	43%	35%	12%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	28:05	16.5	30%	50%	6.8	59	1.8	1.3	5.6	2.5	0	27.6
Rutgers	13	31:48	17.5	37%	64%	5.1	45.2	1	1.4	3.8	1.5	1	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	45% (104)	38% (122)	30.9	88.7	2.9	7 (131)	-.03 (131)	2.84 (114)	76% (50)	12% (119)	0.85 (124)
RUTG Defense	13	52% (99)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	.12 (54)	3.2 (91)	71% (53)	8% (122)	0.77 (4)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	48% (48)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (83)	3.28 (106)	87% (128)	10% (72)	0.93 (35)
RUTG Offense	13	62% (7)	43% (65)	39.8	168.8	4.2	24 (41)	.16 (64)	3.03 (84)	77% (38)	7% (11)	0.95 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	54% (33)	38% (99)	18.5	31.8	197.2	6.2	10.7	14 (106)	13 (97)	.17 (101)	1.4 (121)	35% (113)	26% (107)	.16 (115)	7% (105)	2 (97)
RUTG Defense	13	47% (33)	42% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.22 (40)	1.4 (5)	30% (111)	30% (65)	.17 (8)	6% (55)	1.7 (5)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	51% (85)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (78)	1.5 (26)	29% (116)	32% (92)	.36 (92)	6% (66)	2 (58)
RUTG Offense	13	38% (126)	35% (118)	10.9	22.6	137.5	6.1	12.6	10 (120)	8 (30)	.07 (126)	1.7 (46)	30% (42)	33% (52)	.34 (64)	5% (19)	1.8 (127)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Rutgers: 3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Rutgers: 2.3

Rutgers's Power Ratings
Rutgers's Power Rating: 3.5 #64
Rutgers's Offense Rating: 13.71 #92
Rutgers's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
Rutgers's 2023 Expected Record: 5.80 - 7.20
Rutgers's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #59
Rutgers's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #98
Rutgers's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 15.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Rutgers 26
Michigan State 17

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Rutgers 31
Michigan State 16

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Rutgers 28
Michigan State 18

Total Points: 46

Rutgers Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.6
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.1

Rutgers's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	Michigan State	14	Rutgers	41	Michigan State -1.5	Rutgers	46.5	Over
2023	10/14	Rutgers	27	Michigan State	24	Rutgers -4	Michigan State	38.5	Over
2022	11/12	Michigan State	27	Rutgers	21	Michigan State -10.0	Rutgers	41.0	Over
2021	10/09	Rutgers	13	Michigan State	31	Michigan State -4.5	Michigan State	50.0	Under
2020	10/24	Michigan State	27	Rutgers	38	Michigan State -9.5	Rutgers	45.0	Over
2019	11/23	Rutgers	0	Michigan State	27	Michigan State -22.5	Michigan State	43.5	Under
2018	11/24	Michigan State	14	Rutgers	10	Michigan State -24.5	Rutgers	37.0	Under
2017	11/25	Rutgers	7	Michigan State	40	Michigan State -14	Michigan State	42.5	Over
2016	11/12	Michigan State	49	Rutgers	0	Michigan State -15.5	Michigan State	53.5	Under
2015	10/10	Rutgers	24	Michigan State	31	Michigan State -17	Rutgers	56.0	Under
2014	11/22	Michigan State	45	Rutgers	3	Michigan State -22	Michigan State	0
2004	09/04	Rutgers	19	Michigan State	14
2003	09/06	Michigan State	44	Rutgers	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rutgers	4	5	5 Overs
Michigan State	9	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 6	3 - 8	2 - 5	1 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 7	8 - 3	3 - 1	5 - 2

(#92) MSU at (#64) RUTG

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	RUTG
Power RatePwr	#92	#64
SP+SP+	#86	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#50
OffenseOff	#125	#61
DefenseDef	#115	#37
Spec TeamsST	#68	#115
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#53

Michigan State Injury Report

Rutgers Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	RUTG Def
Perf GradePerf	#125	#37
SuccessSuc	#115	#104
ExplosiveExp	#119	#1
PPAPPA	#131	#43
PowerPwr	#127	#59
SP+SP+	#122	#21
Pts POPPO	#125	#44
HavocHav	#115	#107

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	RUTG Def
Run GameRun	#122	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	#123
Run ExplRExp	#124	#4
PPAExp	#131	#54
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#120
TackleTak	-	#4

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	RUTG Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#5
PPAExp	#101	#40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#55
F7 HavocF7	#119	#122
DB HavocDB	#105	#55

Rutgers on Offense


CategoryCat	RUTG Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#61	#115
SuccessSuc	#91	#95
ExplosiveExp	#116	#24
PPAPPA	#107	#75
PowerPwr	#92	#82
SP+SP+	#98	#47
Pts POPPO	#62	#76
HavocHav	#10	#68

Rutgers Run Game


CategoryCat	RUTG Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#33	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	#65	#85
Run ExplRExp	#94	#35
PPAExp	#64	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#84	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#66	#111
TackleTak	-	#74

Rutgers Pass Game


CategoryCat	RUTG Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#94	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#105
Pass ExplPExl	#46	#26
PPAExp	#126	#78
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#70
F7 HavocF7	#11	#72
DB HavocDB	#19	#66

Program Comparison
RUTG 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in SHI Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 52°Rain: 0.079

Rematch from Week 7
Rutgers -4.0 (38.5)
Rutgers won vs Michigan State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Rutgers beat Michigan State last year (41-14)
Rutgers beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-24)
Michigan State beat Rutgers in 2022 (27-21)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5

RUTG's OC Kirk Ciarrocca (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gavin Wimsatt	138	289	48%	1735	9	8	6.0
Evan Simon	2	3	67%	30	1	0	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kyle Monangai	242	1262	8	5.2	55
Gavin Wimsatt	131	497	11	3.8	80
Samuel Brown V	63	217	2	3.4	11
Ja'shon Benjamin	45	172	1	3.8	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christian Dremel	35	463	3	13.2	69
JaQuae Jackson (Tr)	22	361	1	16.4	61
Isaiah Washington	26	326	1	12.5	42
Ian Strong	16	230	2	14.4	29

View Rutgers's Full Roster

RUTG's DC Joe Harasymiak (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deion Jennings	94	5	0	0	4
Mohamed Toure	92	10	5	4	2
Michael Dixon (Tr)	76	2	0	1	5
Desmond Igbinosun	64	7	1	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Toure	92	10	5	4	2
Wesley Bailey	25	5	4	5	3
Tyreem Powell	52	3	3	2	2
Aaron Lewis	49	5	3	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Robert Longerbeam	39	1	1	8
Eric Rogers (Tr)	18	0	0	6
Max Melton	32	4	1	6