New Mexico at Boise State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (10:00 PM EST)
Boise State -27.5 (58.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Boise State 42 - New Mexico: 14 (Mountain West)

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 35 (22 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -19.5 (SP+ BSU -24)
Projected Score: UNM: 19 - BSU: 39 (58)
BSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
UNM Travel: 780 miles

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Spencer Danielson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 26 (32 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	27.3	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	35.1	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	32.1	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	25.6	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.3	22.2	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31
BSU Defense	14	25.6	17.2	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	35.1	35.2	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32
BSU Offense	14	32.1	32.3	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.50 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.50 Boise State: 8.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.8 Boise State: 7.4

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 8.485 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 39
New Mexico 19

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 35
New Mexico 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 34
New Mexico 23

Total Points: 57

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Boise State	41	New Mexico	25	Boise State -14.5	Boise State	58.5	Over
2023	11/11	Boise State	42	New Mexico	14	Boise State -27.5	Boise State	58.5	Under
2022	09/09	New Mexico	14	Boise State	31	Boise State -17	NA	43.5	Over
2021	11/20	Boise State	37	New Mexico	0	Boise State -27.5	Boise State	48.0	Under
2019	11/16	Boise State	42	New Mexico	9	Boise State -27.5	Boise State	59.0	Under
2018	11/16	New Mexico	14	Boise State	45	Boise State -21	Boise State	61.0	Under
2017	09/14	Boise State	28	New Mexico	14	Boise State -16	New Mexico	56.5	Under
2016	10/07	New Mexico	21	Boise State	49	Boise State -16.5	Boise State	61.5	Over
2015	11/14	Boise State	24	New Mexico	31	Boise State -29.5	New Mexico	57.0	Under
2014	11/08	New Mexico	49	Boise State	60	Boise State -14.5	New Mexico	0
2013	11/30	Boise State	45	New Mexico	17	Boise State -35	New Mexico	0
2012	09/29	New Mexico	29	Boise State	32
2011	12/03	Boise State	45	New Mexico	0
2000	09/01	New Mexico	14	Boise State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	13	6	3 Overs
New Mexico	1	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	5 - 5	4 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 7	5 - 5	2 - 1	3 - 4

(#94) UNM at (#37) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	BSU
Power RatePwr	#94	#37
SP+SP+	#124	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#121	#51
OffenseOff	#30	#26
DefenseDef	#136	#111
Spec TeamsST	#133	#64
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#69

New Mexico Injury Report

Boise State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	BSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#30	#111
SuccessSuc	#12	#59
ExplosiveExp	#65	#111
PPAPPA	#15	#90
PowerPwr	#12	#58
SP+SP+	#88	#70
Pts POPPO	#49	#90
HavocHav	#126	#45

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#24	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#79
Run ExplRExp	#54	#108
PPAExp	#16	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#48
TackleTak	-	#130

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#23	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#91
PPAExp	#23	#72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#109
F7 HavocF7	#110	#34
DB HavocDB	#129	#72

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNM Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#136
SuccessSuc	#21	#130
ExplosiveExp	#32	#64
PPAPPA	#19	#127
PowerPwr	#28	#130
SP+SP+	#29	#128
Pts POPPO	#38	#109
HavocHav	#40	#54

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#3	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#126
Run ExplRExp	#31	#20
PPAExp	#6	#106
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#66
TackleTak	-	#135

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#118
PPAExp	#29	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#135
F7 HavocF7	#34	#80
DB HavocDB	#66	#28

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 50° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Boise State -27.5 (58.5)
Boise State won vs New Mexico this year (42-14)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat New Mexico in 2023 (42-14)
Boise State beat New Mexico in 2022 (31-14)

UNM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)	157	282	56%	2074	11	9	7.4
Devon Dampier	40	64	63%	525	6	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacory Merritt	189	1185	17	6.3	55
Andrew Henry (Tr)	52	350	3	6.7	64
Devon Dampier	59	333	4	5.6	37
Sherod White	37	155	1	4.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)	30	551	2	18.4	59
Jeremiah Hixon	39	482	5	12.4	59
D.J. Washington	29	336	3	11.6	35
Andrew Erickson	20	263	1	13.2	52

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Troy Reffett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Marenco	64	4	1	2	3
Christian Ellis	58	0	0	0	4
Dereck Moore	51	0	0	0	0
Syaire Riley	48	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyler Drake	25	6	4	1	0
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)	27	4	2	1	0
Hunter Rapolla	19	4	2	1	1
Mihalis Santorineos	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zach Morris	33	2	7
Donte Martin	23	2	6
Christian Ellis	58	0	4

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5