Hawai'i at New Mexico - 2023 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at New Mexico Lobos

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (6:00 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -1.5 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico 42 - Hawai'i: 21 (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (4 - 13)
Avg Score : 21 - 32 (19 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 8.6 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNM 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: New Mexico -6 (SP+ HAW -0)
Projected Score: HAW: 27 - UNM: 33 (61)
HAW Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
HAW Travel: 3223 miles, 3 hrs behind

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 35 (32 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Hawai'i at Vanderbilt	+17.0	54.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Fri 9/1	Hawai'i vs Stanford	+2.0	54.0	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	Hawai'i vs UAlbany	-10.5	58.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Hawai'i at Oregon	+38.5	67.5	L 10 - 55	U	N
Sat 9/23	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-4.0	54.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Hawai'i at UNLV	+10.5	58.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	+6.0	51.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Hawai'i at New Mexico	-1.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/28	Hawai'i vs San José State	+10.5	57.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	Hawai'i at Nevada	+3.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Hawai'i vs Air Force	+22.5	47.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Hawai'i at Wyoming	+13.5	45.5	L 9 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Hawai'i vs Colorado State	+6.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#94 (.14)	41% (82)	21.4	40% (98)	2.79 (119)	76	42% (64)	276	3.22 (111)	#102 (.24)	43% (84)	32.2	44% (77)	43% (88)	4.14 (101)	56.4	1.8	1.1
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	27.3	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	35.1	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	13	21.4	19.2	41%	3.22	1.8	19	352	76	276	3.1	34%	65%	40%	42%	18%	.14
UNM Defense	12	35.1	35	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	13	32.2	38.7	43.2%	4.14	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	44%	43%	16%	.24
UNM Offense	12	27.3	32.3	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	13	29:39	19.3	37%	52%	6.2	56.4	1.8	1.1	5.2	1.7	0	29.1
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	13	34% (133)	40% (98)	24.9	76.1	3.1	6 (133)	.09 (103)	2.79 (119)	62% (126)	11% (90)	1 (67)
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	13	57% (127)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (87)	3.16 (83)	75% (82)	10% (66)	1.06 (94)
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	13	65% (2)	42% (64)	25.9	41.3	276.4	6.7	10.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.2 (94)	1.5 (104)	34% (96)	32% (62)	.33 (69)	7% (100)	2 (84)
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	13	43% (7)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.38 (114)	1.7 (110)	31% (89)	31% (80)	.4 (107)	6% (58)	2.1 (84)
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -12.94 #127
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 14.83 #118
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Hawai'i's 2023 Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60
Hawai'i's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #123
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -12.94 New Mexico: -8.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -16.7 New Mexico: -16.8

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -8.65 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.7

Hawai'i's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 33
Hawai'i 27

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 34
Hawai'i 28

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 33
Hawai'i 28

Total Points: 61

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	Hawai'i	38	New Mexico	30	New Mexico -6.5	Hawai'i	61.5	Over
2023	10/21	New Mexico	42	Hawai'i	21	Hawai'i -1.5	New Mexico	60.0	Over
2020	11/07	Hawai'i	39	New Mexico	33	Hawai'i -15	New Mexico	61.5	Over
2019	10/26	New Mexico	31	Hawai'i	45	Hawai'i -10	Hawai'i	70.5	Over
2016	10/29	Hawai'i	21	New Mexico	28	Hawai'i -3	New Mexico	65.5	Under
2015	10/17	New Mexico	28	Hawai'i	27	New Mexico -3.5	Hawai'i	51.5	Over
2012	10/14	Hawai'i	23	New Mexico	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	4	3	5 Overs
Hawai'i	3	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	2 - 4	0 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	4 - 2	1 - 2	3 - 0

(#127) HAW at (#94) UNM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	UNM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#94
SP+SP+	#123	#124
Perf GradeGrade	#110	#121
OffenseOff	#76	#30
DefenseDef	#121	#136
Spec TeamsST	#118	#133
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Hawai'i Injury Report

New Mexico Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense


CategoryCat	HAW Off	UNM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#136
SuccessSuc	#82	#130
ExplosiveExp	#45	#64
PPAPPA	#94	#127
PowerPwr	#103	#130
SP+SP+	#111	#128
Pts POPPO	#111	#109
HavocHav	#99	#54

Hawai'i Run Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#108	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#126
Run ExplRExp	#67	#20
PPAExp	#103	#106
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#66
TackleTak	-	#135

Hawai'i Pass Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#118
PPAExp	#94	#128
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#30	#135
F7 HavocF7	#90	#80
DB HavocDB	#100	#28

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#121
SuccessSuc	#12	#84
ExplosiveExp	#65	#97
PPAPPA	#15	#102
PowerPwr	#12	#118
SP+SP+	#88	#121
Pts POPPO	#49	#101
HavocHav	#126	#63

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#24	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#77
Run ExplRExp	#54	#94
PPAExp	#16	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#60
TackleTak	-	#127

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#23	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#110
PPAExp	#23	#114
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#109
F7 HavocF7	#110	#66
DB HavocDB	#129	#58

Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82°

Rematch from Week 8
Hawai'i 1.5 (60.0)
New Mexico won vs Hawai'i this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat New Mexico last year (38-30)
New Mexico beat Hawai'i in 2023 (42-21)

HAW's OC Roman Sapolu (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	332	525	63%	3542	26	14	6.7
Jake Farrell	3	8	38%	14	0	1	1.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	63	255	1	4.0	22
Jordan Johnson	34	198	0	5.8	28
David Cordero	32	138	0	4.3	36
Tylan Hines	27	93	0	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Steven McBride (Tr)	63	1024	9	16.3	65
Pofele Ashlock	83	832	9	10.0	53
Koali Nishigaya	39	322	1	8.3	29
Alex Perry	24	277	3	11.5	38

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Jacob Yoro (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peter Manuma	88	6	0	0	1
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0
Jalen Smith	65	9	2	1	1
Meki Pei	43	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Evaimalo	23	6	4	1	1
Elijah Robinson (Tr)	24	3	3	0	1
Andrew Choi	36	8	3	0	0
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Virdel Edwards	37	1	9
Jojo Forest	12	1	8
Caleb Brown	17	1	7

UNM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)	157	282	56%	2074	11	9	7.4
Devon Dampier	40	64	63%	525	6	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacory Merritt	189	1185	17	6.3	55
Andrew Henry (Tr)	52	350	3	6.7	64
Devon Dampier	59	333	4	5.6	37
Sherod White	37	155	1	4.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)	30	551	2	18.4	59
Jeremiah Hixon	39	482	5	12.4	59
D.J. Washington	29	336	3	11.6	35
Andrew Erickson	20	263	1	13.2	52

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Troy Reffett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Marenco	64	4	1	2	3
Christian Ellis	58	0	0	0	4
Dereck Moore	51	0	0	0	0
Syaire Riley	48	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyler Drake	25	6	4	1	0
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)	27	4	2	1	0
Hunter Rapolla	19	4	2	1	1
Mihalis Santorineos	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zach Morris	33	2	7
Donte Martin	23	2	6
Christian Ellis	58	0	4