Utah State at New Mexico - 2023 Matchup Preview
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Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico logo
Friday, November 24th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Utah State -4.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Utah State 44 - New Mexico: 41  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNM is playing their 7th straight game
USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Utah State -0.5  (SP+ USU -8.5)
Projected Score: USU: 29 - UNM: 28 (57)
USU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
USU Travel: 540 miles
Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Utah State at Iowa+24.043.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 9/9 Utah State vs Idaho State-24.061.0W 78 - 28OY
Fri 9/15 Utah State at Air Force+9.045.5L 21 - 39ON
Sat 9/23 Utah State vs James Madison+5.553.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 9/30 Utah State at UConn-4.050.5W 34 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Utah State vs Colorado State+3.062.0W 44 - 24OY
Fri 10/13 Utah State vs Fresno State+5.556.0L 32 - 37OY
Sat 10/21 Utah State at San José State+4.065.0L 21 - 42UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Utah State at San Diego State-2.056.5W 32 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Utah State vs Nevada-14.554.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 11/18 Utah State vs Boise State+5.562.5L 10 - 45UN
Fri 11/24 Utah State at New Mexico-4.558.5W 44 - 41ON
Sat 12/23 Utah State vs Georgia State-2.058.0L 22 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 New Mexico at Texas A&M+37.548.5L 10 - 52ON
Sat 9/9 New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech-16.051.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 9/16 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2.552.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 9/23 New Mexico at Massachusetts+3.548.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 9/30 New Mexico at Wyoming+14.540.5L 26 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 New Mexico vs San José State+6.555.0L 24 - 52ON
Sat 10/21 New Mexico vs Hawai'i+1.560.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 10/28 New Mexico at Nevada-1.050.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 11/4 New Mexico vs UNLV+10.061.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 11/11 New Mexico at Boise State+27.558.5L 14 - 42UN
Sat 11/18 New Mexico at Fresno State+22.558.5W 25 - 17UY
Fri 11/24 New Mexico vs Utah State+4.558.5L 41 - 44OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU.0738%30.939%3.1315938%1953.15.1741%28.744%39%4.0577.52.11.7
UNM-.0633%27.139%2.9712125%1063.04.1743%22.347%40%3.5551.21.21.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1330.925.237.9%3.152.1203541591953.855%44%39%38%17%.07
UNM Defense1222.318.743.2%3.551.9 - - - - - 55%44%47%40%17%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1328.73741.2%4.051.7 - - - - - 55%44%44%39%17%.17
UNM Offense1227.128.333%3.041.2132271211063.357%41%39%25%24%-.06

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1328:4719.833%53%8.577.52.11.75.82.7330.4
New Mexico1228:5713.122%29%6.151.21.21.95.22.1228.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1355%39%42.2159.33.814.083.1372%9%0.92
UNM Defense1255%47% - - - - .173.1777%10%0.92
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1355%44% - - - - .17371%11%1.1
UNM Offense1257%39%36.5121.33.312.062.9756%17%0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1344%38%17.730.6195.26.4111821.131.532%26%.088%1.7
UNM Defense1244%40% - - - - - - 9.241.627%23%.17%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1344%39% - - - - - - 11.261.731%29%.246%2.2
UNM Offense1241%25%11.521.3105.559.239-.151.235%18%.016%1.9

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.91  #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84  #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07  #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99  #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5  #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -7.91   New Mexico: -8.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -8.5   New Mexico: -16.8




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -8.65  #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20  #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08  #130
2023 Talent Rating: 375.35  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8  #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3  #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2  #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Utah State 29
New Mexico 28

Projected Total Points: 57
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25New Mexico33Utah State14New Mexico -3New Mexico61.5Under
202410/19Utah State45New Mexico50New Mexico -1New Mexico78.5Over
202311/24New Mexico41Utah State44Utah State -4.5New Mexico58.5Over
202211/05Utah State27New Mexico10Utah State -14.5Utah State42.5Under
202111/26New Mexico10Utah State35Utah State -17Utah State48.0Under
202011/26Utah State41New Mexico27New Mexico -6Utah State49.0Over
201911/30New Mexico25Utah State38Utah State -12Utah State63.0Push
201810/27Utah State61New Mexico19Utah State -20Utah State64.0Over
201711/04New Mexico10Utah State24New Mexico -3.5Utah State52.5Under
201611/12Utah State21New Mexico24Utah State -2.5New Mexico57.0Under
201511/07New Mexico14Utah State13Utah State -14.5New Mexico57.5Under
201411/15Utah State28New Mexico21Utah State -16New Mexico0
201310/19New Mexico10Utah State45Utah State -10Utah State0
200310/04New Mexico34Utah State7
200210/19Utah State45New Mexico44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico564 Overs
Utah State1076 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 76 - 73 - 33 - 4
Road Teams7 - 87 - 64 - 33 - 3

(#107) USU at (#94) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSUUNM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #107 #94
SP+SP+ #97 #124
Perf GradeGrade #113 #121
OffenseOff #67 #30
DefenseDef #131 #136
Spec TeamsST #91 #133
TalentTal #104 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Utah State on Offense
CategoryCat
USU OffUNM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #67 #136
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #72 #130
SP+SP+ #49 #128
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Utah State Run Game
CategoryCat
USU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #27 #136
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #135
Utah State Pass Game
CategoryCat
USU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #66 #129
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #135
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
New Mexico on Offense
CategoryCatUNM OffUSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #30 #131
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #12 #103
SP+SP+ #88 #129
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico Run Game
CategoryCat
UNM OffUSU Def
Run GameRun #24 #135
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #126
New Mexico Pass Game
CategoryCatUNM OffUSU Def
Pass GamePass #79 #81
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #28 #111
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Utah State 4.5 (58.5)
Utah State won at New Mexico this year (44-41)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Utah State last year (33-14)
New Mexico beat Utah State in 2024 (50-45)
Utah State beat New Mexico in 2023 (44-41)

  
USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cooper Legas13821365%18151988.5
McCae Hillstead9415860%10621186.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth12080566.765
Rahsul Faison11873656.260
Robert Briggs8042025.358
Levi Williams4520934.629
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Royals7110801515.271
Terrell Vaughn909371110.476
Micah Davis36628617.476
Colby Bowman (Tr)11247222.563

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MJ Tafisi1429021
Ike Larsen1025016
Anthony Switzer858354
Devin Dye822007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Paul Fitzgerald469711
Blaine Spires2685101
Anthony Switzer858354
Hale Motu'apuaka336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Dye822007
Jordan Drew270006
Avante Dickerson170006

UNM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)15728256%20741197.4
Devon Dampier406463%525608.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacory Merritt1891185176.355
Andrew Henry (Tr)5235036.764
Devon Dampier5933345.637
Sherod White3715514.212
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)30551218.459
Jeremiah Hixon39482512.459
D.J. Washington29336311.635
Andrew Erickson20263113.252

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Troy Reffett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Marenco644123
Christian Ellis580004
Dereck Moore510000
Syaire Riley484120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyler Drake256410
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)274210
Hunter Rapolla194211
Mihalis Santorineos203200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Morris332007
Donte Martin232006
Christian Ellis580004