Tennessee at Missouri - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#25)Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers(#22)

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Tennessee -1 (58.5) (-130) Open: -1.0
Missouri 36 - Tennessee: 7 (SEC)

Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (19 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TENN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -6.5 (SP+ MIZ -5)
Projected Score: TENN: 25 - MIZ: 32 (57)
TENN Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
TENN Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TENN Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Tennessee vs Virginia	-27.5	56.0	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-48.0	65.5	W 30 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/16	Tennessee at Florida	-5.0	57.0	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/23	Tennessee vs UTSA	-24.0	59.0	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Tennessee vs South Carolina	-12.0	59.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Tennessee vs Texas A&M	-3.0	54.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Tennessee at Alabama	+8.5	47.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	Tennessee at Kentucky	-4.0	50.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Tennessee vs UConn	-35.0	55.5	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Tennessee at Missouri	-1.0	58.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/18	Tennessee vs Georgia	+9.0	59.0	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tennessee vs Vanderbilt	-27.0	58.0	W 48 - 24	O	N
Mon 1/1	Tennessee vs Iowa	-4.5	37.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Missouri's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Missouri vs South Dakota	-27.0	44.5	W 35 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/9	Missouri vs Middle Tennessee	-21.0	47.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/16	Missouri vs Kansas State	+3.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Missouri vs Memphis	-6.5	52.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Missouri at Vanderbilt	-14.0	53.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Missouri vs LSU	+6.0	63.5	L 39 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/14	Missouri at Kentucky	+1.5	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Missouri vs South Carolina	-7.5	57.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Missouri at Georgia	+15.0	56.5	L 21 - 30	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Missouri vs Tennessee	+1.0	58.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Missouri vs Florida	-12.5	56.5	W 33 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Missouri at Arkansas	-9.5	53.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN	#36 (.27)	46% (24)	31.8	46% (39)	3.31 (30)	187	47% (25)	232	3.56 (94)	#54 (.16)	39% (35)	20.3	37% (19)	41% (65)	3.41 (34)	65.6	0.9	1.2
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	32.5	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	20.8	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN	#46 (.23)	47% (18)		48% (23)	3.4 (13)	227	47% (19)	221	4.02 (55)	#13 (.07)	38% (17)		36% (9)	39% (48)	3.03 (10)	66.8	1.2	1.6
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)		47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)		42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Offense	13	31.8	19	46.3%	3.56	0.9	20	419	187	232	5.6	51%	49%	46%	47%	13%	.27
MIZ Defense	13	20.8	22.1	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Defense	13	20.3	31.5	38.9%	3.41	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	37%	41%	18%	.16
MIZ Offense	13	32.5	32.9	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tennessee	13	22:32	19.9	43%	31%	7.5	65.6	0.9	1.2	7.2	2.8	4	30.3
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Offense	13	51% (60)	46% (39)	33.5	186.9	5.6	20 (61)	.22 (28)	3.31 (30)	72% (80)	7% (16)	1.05 (39)
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Defense	13	48% (41)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	.05 (21)	2.71 (15)	65% (24)	13% (11)	1.03 (85)
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Offense	13	49% (69)	47% (25)	19.3	30.1	231.7	7.7	12	21 (65)	5 (6)	.35 (39)	1.5 (110)	30% (39)	32% (64)	.38 (54)	6% (68)	2.1 (63)
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Defense	13	52% (96)	41% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.29 (85)	1.6 (85)	35% (27)	31% (82)	.36 (93)	5% (100)	2 (41)
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 9.71 Missouri: 17.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.0 Missouri: 17.8

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 17.615 #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36 #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05 #38
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 23 #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8 #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.5

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 32
Tennessee 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri 30
Tennessee 30

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 29
Tennessee 23

Total Points: 52

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Missouri	36	Tennessee	7	Tennessee -1	Missouri	58.5	Under
2022	11/12	Tennessee	66	Missouri	24	Tennessee -18.5	Tennessee	57.5	Over
2021	10/02	Missouri	24	Tennessee	62	Missouri -2.5	Tennessee	66.5	Over
2020	10/03	Tennessee	35	Missouri	12	Tennessee -10	Tennessee	48.5	Under
2019	11/23	Missouri	20	Tennessee	24	Missouri -3	Tennessee	47.0	Under
2018	11/17	Tennessee	17	Missouri	50	Missouri -5.5	Missouri	58.0	Over
2017	11/11	Missouri	50	Tennessee	17	Missouri -13	Missouri	62.5	Over
2016	11/19	Tennessee	63	Missouri	37	Tennessee -14.5	Tennessee	69.5	Over
2015	11/21	Missouri	8	Tennessee	19	Tennessee -9	Tennessee	43.0	Under
2014	11/22	Tennessee	21	Missouri	29	Tennessee -3	Missouri	0
2013	11/02	Missouri	31	Tennessee	3	Missouri -13	Missouri	0
2012	11/10	Tennessee	48	Missouri	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	6	5	5 Overs
Tennessee	6	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	6 - 5	5 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 6	5 - 6	2 - 1	3 - 5

(#24) TENN at (#14) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TENN	MIZ
Power RatePwr	#24	#14
SP+SP+	#19	#12
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#19
OffenseOff	#59	#14
DefenseDef	#33	#49
Spec TeamsST	#13	#67
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#17	#30

Tennessee Injury Report

Missouri Injury Report

Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	TENN Off	MIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#59	#49
SuccessSuc	#24	#19
ExplosiveExp	#86	#102
PPAPPA	#36	#47
PowerPwr	#36	#38
SP+SP+	#28	#23
Pts POPPO	#94	#81
HavocHav	#21	#19

Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#22	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#13
Run ExplRExp	#39	#97
PPAExp	#28	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#30	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#14
TackleTak	-	#72

Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#110	#58
PPAExp	#39	#46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#73	#35
F7 HavocF7	#16	#11
DB HavocDB	#68	#64

Missouri on Offense


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	TENN Def
Perf GradePerf	#14	#33
SuccessSuc	#26	#35
ExplosiveExp	#63	#104
PPAPPA	#21	#54
PowerPwr	#15	#31
SP+SP+	#11	#31
Pts POPPO	#22	#34
HavocHav	#24	#35

Missouri Run Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#53	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#19
Run ExplRExp	#84	#85
PPAExp	#50	#21
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#15
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#28
TackleTak	-	#44

Missouri Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#65
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#85
PPAExp	#18	#85
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#36	#11
F7 HavocF7	#46	#11
DB HavocDB	#16	#100

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54°

Rematch from Week 11
Tennessee 1.0 (58.5)
Missouri won vs Tennessee this year (36-7)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Tennessee in 2023 (36-7)
Tennessee beat Missouri in 2022 (66-24)

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Milton	230	355	65%	2814	20	5	7.9
Nico Iamaleava	28	45	62%	314	2	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylen Wright	137	1013	4	7.4	82
Dylan Sampson	106	603	7	5.7	44
Jabari Small	95	475	2	5.0	40
Joe Milton	78	299	7	3.8	81

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Squirrel White	68	804	2	11.8	83
Ramel Keyton	35	642	6	18.3	60
McCallan Castles (Tr)	22	283	5	12.9	43
Dont'E Thornton	13	224	1	17.2	47

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Herring	79	5	1	1	1
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4
Wesley Walker	53	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Pearce Jr.	27	14	10	15	0
Tyler Baron	28	11	6	5	2
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)	26	6	6	1	0
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamal Hadden	19	0	0	1	7
Tamarion McDonald	40	4	1	1	4
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	243	367	66%	3302	21	6	9.0
Sam Horn	3	6	50%	54	1	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cody Schrader	276	1617	14	5.9	52
Brady Cook	113	319	8	2.8	25
Nathaniel Peat	76	317	3	4.2	19
Luther Burden III	8	38	0	4.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luther Burden III	85	1205	9	14.2	56
Theo Wease	48	661	6	13.8	77
Mookie Cooper	36	447	0	12.4	41
Marquis Johnson	13	383	3	29.5	76

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4
Joseph Charleston	60	1	0	3	4
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3
Charles Hicks	53	11	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Robinson	43	14	9	6	0
Johnny Walker	43	11	6	9	0
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)	22	4	4	3	0
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kris Abrams-Draine	50	3	0	1	12
Daylan Carnell	51	6	3	8	7
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4