SMU at Virginia - 2021 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, December 29th 2021 (11:00 AM EST)
Virginia -2.5 (71.0)
Fenway Park - Boston, MA

Mustangs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1 (SP+ SMU -1.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 25 - UVA: 28 (53)
UVA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
SMU Travel: 1544 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
SMU Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	SMU vs Abilene Christian	-32.0	66.0	W 56 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/11	SMU vs North Texas	-22.5	75.5	W 35 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/18	SMU at Louisiana Tech	-11.0	65.0	W 39 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/25	SMU at TCU	+8.0	66.0	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/2	SMU vs South Florida	-21.5	68.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/9	SMU at Navy	-13.5	57.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	SMU vs Tulane	-14.0	70.5	W 55 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/30	SMU at Houston	-1.0	61.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	SMU at Memphis	-3.5	72.0	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	SMU vs UCF	-7.0	61.5	W 55 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/20	SMU at Cincinnati	+9.5	65.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/27	SMU vs Tulsa	-6.0	63.0	L 31 - 34	O	N
Wed 12/29	SMU vs Virginia	+2.5	71.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Virginia's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	52.5	W 43 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Virginia vs Illinois	-10.5	57.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Virginia at North Carolina	+7.5	67.0	L 39 - 59	O	N
Fri 9/24	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-3.5	71.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 9/30	Virginia at Miami	+3.5	63.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Virginia at Louisville	+2.5	69.5	W 34 - 33	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Virginia vs Duke	-10.5	69.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-6.5	66.0	W 48 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Virginia at BYU	+2.5	66.5	L 49 - 66	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Virginia vs Notre Dame	+7.5	62.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/20	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+12.5	69.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	63.5	L 24 - 29	U	N
Wed 12/29	Virginia vs SMU	-2.5	71.0

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	.26	45%	32.2	46%	3.03	178	44%	318	3.75	.24	43%	20.5	43%	43%	4.68	61.7	1.2	1.6
UVA	.19	44%	30.8	48%	3.42	163	40%	261	4.05	.2	41%	19.6	37%	44%	3.04	48.3	1.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	10	32.2	29.8	45.3%	3.75	1.2	25	496	178	318	4.7	46%	54%	46%	44%	14%	.26
UVA Defense	10	19.6	17.7	40.6%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	44%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	10	20.5	22.2	43%	4.68	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	43%	43%	18%	.24
UVA Offense	10	30.8	36.4	44%	4.05	1.9	24	423	163	261	4.5	46%	54%	48%	40%	14%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	10	29:22	25	47%	41%	6.9	61.7	1.2	1.6	7.5	2.5	1	31.2
Virginia	10	31:04	23.6	37%	64%	5.3	48.3	1.9	1.8	7.2	3.2	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	10	46%	46%	37.6	177.8	4.7	24	.14	3.03	83%	9%	0.98
UVA Defense	10	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.6	76%	12%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	10	53%	43%	-	-	-	-	.17	2.9	67%	12%	1.09
UVA Offense	10	46%	48%	36.6	162.9	4.5	16	.2	3.42	77%	7%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	10	54%	44%	24.6	37.6	318	8.5	12.9	23	6	.36	1.7	33%	37%	.49	6%	2.3
UVA Defense	10	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.9	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	10	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.31	1.7	34%	36%	.41	6%	2
UVA Offense	10	54%	40%	22.1	37.9	260.5	6.9	11.8	22	14	.17	1.6	29%	31%	.33	8%	1.9

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
SMU's 2021 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #69

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: Virginia: 3.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.9 Virginia: 7.2

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 3.6 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 28
SMU 25

Projected Total Points: 53

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Virginia	7	SMU	33	SMU -11.5	SMU	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	0	0	0 Overs
SMU	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

SMU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2019	Raton Bowl	SMU vs Florida Atlantic	-7.5	64.0	L 28 - 52
2017	Frisco Bowl	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-4.0	70.5	L 10 - 51

Virginia Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2019	Orange Bowl	Virginia vs Florida	+16.0	55.5	L 28 - 36
2018	N/A	Virginia vs South Carolina	+3.5	54.0	W 28 - 0
2017	Military Bowl	Virginia vs Navy	+2.5	51.0	L 7 - 49

(#) SMU at (#) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#69
OffenseOff	#43	#19
DefenseDef	#73	#121
Spec TeamsST	#15	#63
TalentTal	#63	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

SMU Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#18	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#34	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#32	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#98

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#15
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fenway Park
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Virginia in 2024 (33-7)

SMU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Jim Leavitt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD