SMU at TCU - 2021 Matchup Preview
SMU logo   SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs  TCU logo
Saturday, September 25th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
TCU -8 (66.0)
SMU 42 - TCU: 34

 
Mustangs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU 2nd straight Road Game
TCU coming off BYE
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2.5  (SP+ SMU -9.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 28 - TCU: 28 (56)
TCU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 35 miles
Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (2 - 9 - 1)
Coach Gary Patterson (180 - 74)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 SMU vs Abilene Christian-32.066.0W 56 - 9UY
Sat 9/11 SMU vs North Texas-22.575.5W 35 - 12UY
Sat 9/18 SMU at Louisiana Tech-11.065.0W 39 - 37ON
Sat 9/25 SMU at TCU+8.066.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/2 SMU vs South Florida-21.568.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 10/9 SMU at Navy-13.557.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21 SMU vs Tulane-14.070.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/30 SMU at Houston-1.061.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 11/6 SMU at Memphis-3.572.0L 25 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 SMU vs UCF-7.061.5W 55 - 28OY
Sat 11/20 SMU at Cincinnati+9.565.5L 14 - 48UN
Sat 11/27 SMU vs Tulsa-6.063.0L 31 - 34ON
Wed 12/29 SMU vs Virginia+2.571.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
TCU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 TCU vs Duquesne-42.054.5W 45 - 3UN
Sat 9/11 TCU vs California-11.546.5W 34 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25 TCU vs SMU-8.066.0L 34 - 42ON
Sat 10/2 TCU vs Texas+3.565.5L 27 - 32UN
Sat 10/9 TCU at Texas Tech-2.560.0W 52 - 31OY
Sat 10/16 TCU at Oklahoma+12.564.5L 31 - 52ON
Sat 10/23 TCU vs West Virginia-5.058.0L 17 - 29UN
Sat 10/30 TCU at Kansas State+3.558.5L 12 - 31UN
Sat 11/6 TCU vs Baylor+7.557.0W 30 - 28OY
Sat 11/13 TCU at Oklahoma State+11.053.5L 17 - 63ON
Sat 11/20 TCU vs Kansas-21.064.0W 31 - 28UN
Fri 11/26 TCU at Iowa State+16.061.5L 14 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU.2645%32.246%3.0317844%3183.75.2443%20.543%43%4.6861.71.21.6
TCU.1541%30.746%2.9521535%1932.91.1132%25.331%33%3.262.81.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1032.229.845.3%3.751.2254961783184.746%54%46%44%14%.26
TCU Defense1025.324.232.4%3.21.2 - - - - - 50%50%31%33%21%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1020.522.243%4.681.6 - - - - - 53%47%43%43%18%.24
TCU Offense1030.73640.9%2.911.4194082151935.356%44%46%35%17%.15

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1029:222547%41%6.961.71.21.67.52.5131.2
TCU1030:0519.236%57%7.662.81.41.27.72.3329.1
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1046%46%37.6177.84.724.143.0383%9%0.98
TCU Defense1050%31% - - - - -.012.3865%13%1.15
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1053%43% - - - - .172.967%12%1.09
TCU Offense1056%46%41215.15.323.192.9577%12%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1054%44%24.637.63188.512.9236.361.733%37%.496%2.3
TCU Defense1050%33% - - - - - - 8.231.938%21%.188%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1047%43% - - - - - - 7.311.734%36%.416%2
TCU Offense1044%35%16.327.2193.37.111.9105.111.631%29%.235%2

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
SMU's 2021 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #69

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU:    TCU: 2.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.9   TCU: -0.6




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 2.2 NR
TCU's Offense Rating: NR
TCU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
TCU's 2021 Expected Record: -
TCU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.6  #81
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #38
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 28
TCU 28

Projected Total Points: 56
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20TCU35SMU24TCU -6.5TCU63.5Under
202409/21SMU66TCU42TCU -1SMU58.5Over
202309/23TCU34SMU17TCU -7TCU63.5Under
202209/24SMU34TCU42TCU -2.5TCU72.0Over
202109/25TCU34SMU42TCU -8SMU66.0Over
201909/21TCU38SMU41TCU -7.5SMU54.5Over
201809/07SMU12TCU42TCU -23.5TCU59.5Under
201709/16TCU56SMU36TCU -22SMU64.5Over
201609/23SMU3TCU33TCU -24TCU68.0Under
201509/19TCU56SMU37TCU -38SMU68.5Over
201409/27SMU0TCU56TCU -31TCU0
201309/28TCU48SMU17TCU -19.5TCU0
201209/29SMU16TCU24
201110/01TCU33SMU40
201009/24SMU24TCU41
200910/03TCU39SMU14
200809/20SMU7TCU48
200709/22TCU21SMU7
200509/10SMU21TCU10
200409/11TCU44SMU0
200311/29SMU13TCU20
200209/14TCU17SMU6
200109/08SMU10TCU38
200011/23SMU7TCU62
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU1976 Overs
SMU554 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams13 - 118 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#) SMU at (#) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #44 #81
Perf GradeGrade #40 #95
OffenseOff #43 #41
DefenseDef #73 #126
Spec TeamsST #15 #115
TalentTal #63 #35
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #126
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #18 #110
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #34 #114
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #133
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #18 #126
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #97
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
TCU on Offense
CategoryCatTCU OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #38 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #58 #23
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #98
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCatTCU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #38 #129
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #10 #15
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Down to Average G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
TCU -8.0 (66.0)
SMU won at TCU this year (42-34)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat SMU last year (35-24)
SMU beat TCU in 2024 (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)

  
SMU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Jim Leavitt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TCU's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Chad Glasgow (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD