SMU at Navy - 2021 Matchup Preview
SMU logo   SMU Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen  Navy logo
Saturday, October 9th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
SMU -13.5 (57.0)
SMU 31 - Navy: 24  (American Athletic)

 
Mustangs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
SMU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -6  (SP+ SMU -17.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 28 - NAVY: 28 (56)
SMU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
SMU Travel: 1208 miles, 1 hrs behind
Midshipmen (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (101 - 69)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 SMU vs Abilene Christian-32.066.0W 56 - 9UY
Sat 9/11 SMU vs North Texas-22.575.5W 35 - 12UY
Sat 9/18 SMU at Louisiana Tech-11.065.0W 39 - 37ON
Sat 9/25 SMU at TCU+8.066.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/2 SMU vs South Florida-21.568.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 10/9 SMU at Navy-13.557.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21 SMU vs Tulane-14.070.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/30 SMU at Houston-1.061.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 11/6 SMU at Memphis-3.572.0L 25 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 SMU vs UCF-7.061.5W 55 - 28OY
Sat 11/20 SMU at Cincinnati+9.565.5L 14 - 48UN
Sat 11/27 SMU vs Tulsa-6.063.0L 31 - 34ON
Wed 12/29 SMU vs Virginia+2.571.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Navy's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Navy vs Marshall+3.546.5L 7 - 49ON
Sat 9/11 Navy vs Air Force+6.040.0L 3 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25 Navy at Houston+20.047.0L 20 - 28OY
Sat 10/2 Navy vs UCF+15.052.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 10/9 Navy vs SMU+13.557.0L 24 - 31UY
Thu 10/14 Navy at Memphis+11.055.5L 17 - 35UN
Sat 10/23 Navy vs Cincinnati+28.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Fri 10/29 Navy at Tulsa+11.046.0W 20 - 17UY
Sat 11/6 Navy at Notre Dame+21.047.5L 6 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 Navy vs East Carolina+3.546.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/27 Navy at Temple-13.542.0W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/11 Navy at Army-7.035.5W 17 - 13UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU.2645%32.246%3.0317844%3183.75.2443%20.543%43%4.6861.71.21.6
NAVY.0935%31.536%2.6217833%973.6.2143%2543%43%3.9740.21.10.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1032.229.845.3%3.751.2254961783184.746%54%46%44%14%.26
NAVY Defense102524.243.4%3.970.9 - - - - - 62%38%43%43%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1020.522.243%4.681.6 - - - - - 53%47%43%43%18%.24
NAVY Offense1031.53835.1%3.61.114275178973.776%23%36%33%15%.09

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1029:222547%41%6.961.71.21.67.52.5131.2
Navy1030:1914.334%67%4.440.21.10.94.50.6027.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1046%46%37.6177.84.724.143.0383%9%0.98
NAVY Defense1062%43% - - - - .173.0583%9%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1053%43% - - - - .172.967%12%1.09
NAVY Offense1076%36%48.3177.63.715.032.6271%12%1.04

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1054%44%24.637.63188.512.9236.361.733%37%.496%2.3
NAVY Defense1038%43% - - - - - - 3.281.531%33%.435%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1047%43% - - - - - - 7.311.734%36%.416%2
NAVY Offense1023%33%5.712.497.47.917.164.272.334%24%.263%2.3

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
SMU's 2021 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #69

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU:    Navy: -1.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.9   Navy: -8.5




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -1.75 NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #141
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Navy's 2021 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5  #103
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #116
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 28
Navy 28

Projected Total Points: 56
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25SMU59Navy14SMU -20SMU46.0Over
202210/14SMU40Navy34SMU -12.5Navy59.0Over
202110/09Navy24SMU31SMU -13.5Navy57.0Under
202010/31SMU51Navy37SMU -14.0Push0
201911/23Navy35SMU28Navy -3.5Navy68.5Under
201809/22SMU31Navy30Navy -6.5SMU57.5Over
201711/11Navy43SMU40Navy -1.5Navy66.0Over
201611/26SMU31Navy75Navy -8Navy65.5Over
201511/14Navy55SMU14Navy -20Navy59.5Over
201111/12SMU17Navy24
201010/16Navy28SMU21
200910/17SMU35Navy38
200810/25Navy34SMU7
200208/31SMU7Navy38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy966 Overs
SMU522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 56 - 24 - 12 - 1
Road Teams5 - 92 - 61 - 21 - 4

(#) SMU at (#) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUNAVY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #44 #103
Perf GradeGrade #40 #115
OffenseOff #43 #93
DefenseDef #73 #125
Spec TeamsST #15 #39
TalentTal #63 #141
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCat
SMU OffNAVY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #125
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #18 #75
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #34 #109
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #94
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #18 #120
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #136
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Navy on Offense
CategoryCatNAVY OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #116 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #125 #23
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #98
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCatNAVY OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #116 #129
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #136 #15
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
SMU 13.5 (57.0)
SMU won at Navy this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Navy in 2023 (59-14)

  
SMU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Jim Leavitt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NAVY's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC Brian Newberry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD