Illinois at Virginia - 2021 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday, September 11th 2021 (11:00 AM EDT)
Virginia -10.5 (57.0)
Virginia 42 - Illinois: 14

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -4 (SP+ UVA -3)
Projected Score: ILL: 24 - UVA: 32 (56)
UVA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ILL Travel: 540 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Illinois vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.0	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Illinois vs UTSA	-4.5	52.0	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/11	Illinois at Virginia	+10.5	57.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Fri 9/17	Illinois vs Maryland	+7.0	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Illinois at Purdue	+10.5	53.5	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Illinois vs Charlotte	-10.0	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/9	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+12.5	42.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Illinois at Penn State	+24.5	46.0	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Illinois vs Rutgers	+1.5	41.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/6	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.5	44.5	W 14 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Illinois at Iowa	+12.0	37.5	L 23 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	45.0	W 47 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Virginia's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	52.5	W 43 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Virginia vs Illinois	-10.5	57.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Virginia at North Carolina	+7.5	67.0	L 39 - 59	O	N
Fri 9/24	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-3.5	71.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 9/30	Virginia at Miami	+3.5	63.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Virginia at Louisville	+2.5	69.5	W 34 - 33	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Virginia vs Duke	-10.5	69.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-6.5	66.0	W 48 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Virginia at BYU	+2.5	66.5	L 49 - 66	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Virginia vs Notre Dame	+7.5	62.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/20	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+12.5	69.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	63.5	L 24 - 29	U	N
Wed 12/29	Virginia vs SMU	-2.5	71.0

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.14	39%	29.4	43%	2.94	195	31%	153	2.92	.32	50%	23.6	49%	52%	4.44	50.1	1.1	1.9
UVA	.19	44%	30.8	48%	3.42	163	40%	261	4.05	.2	41%	19.6	37%	44%	3.04	48.3	1.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	8	29.4	26.6	38.6%	2.92	1.1	18	348	195	153	4.8	61%	39%	43%	31%	16%	.14
UVA Defense	10	19.6	17.7	40.6%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	44%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	8	23.6	35.6	50.4%	4.44	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	52%	14%	.32
UVA Offense	10	30.8	36.4	44%	4.05	1.9	24	423	163	261	4.5	46%	54%	48%	40%	14%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	8	27:02	18	38%	47%	4.9	50.1	1.1	1.9	5.6	2.3	0	27.8
Virginia	10	31:04	23.6	37%	64%	5.3	48.3	1.9	1.8	7.2	3.2	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	8	61%	43%	40.6	194.9	4.8	9	.16	2.94	74%	11%	1.11
UVA Defense	10	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.6	76%	12%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	8	58%	49%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.42	85%	10%	0.96
UVA Offense	10	46%	48%	36.6	162.9	4.5	16	.2	3.42	77%	7%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	8	39%	31%	11.4	24.3	152.9	6.3	13.4	10	4	.12	1.9	35%	30%	.24	5%	2.1
UVA Defense	10	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.9	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	8	42%	52%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.47	1.5	25%	32%	.39	4%	2.1
UVA Offense	10	54%	40%	22.1	37.9	260.5	6.9	11.8	22	14	.17	1.6	29%	31%	.33	8%	1.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Virginia: 6.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3 Virginia: 7.2

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 6.1 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 32
Illinois 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/10	Illinois	24	Virginia	3	Illinois -4	Illinois	55.0	Under
2021	09/11	Virginia	42	Illinois	14	Virginia -10.5	Virginia	57.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	1	1	0 Overs
Illinois	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#69
OffenseOff	#84	#19
DefenseDef	#39	#121
Spec TeamsST	#26	#63
TalentTal	#51	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#77	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#32	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Virginia -10.5 (57.0)
Virginia won vs Illinois this year (42-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD