Illinois at Virginia - 2021 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo (#11)Illinois Fighting Illini at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Saturday, September 11th 2021 (11:00 AM EDT)
Virginia -10.5 (57.0)
Virginia 42 - Illinois: 14

 
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 22 (16 - 22 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -4  (SP+ UVA -3)
Projected Score: ILL: 20 - UVA: 34 (54)
UVA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ILL Travel: 540 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 35 - 32 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Illinois's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28 Illinois vs Nebraska+6.552.0W 30 - 22UY
Sat 9/4 Illinois vs UTSA-4.552.0L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/11 Illinois at Virginia+10.557.0L 14 - 42UN
Fri 9/17 Illinois vs Maryland+7.061.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/25 Illinois at Purdue+10.553.5L 9 - 13UY
Sat 10/2 Illinois vs Charlotte-10.054.0W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/9 Illinois vs Wisconsin+12.542.0L 0 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Illinois at Penn State+24.546.0W 20 - 18UY
Sat 10/30 Illinois vs Rutgers+1.541.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 11/6 Illinois at Minnesota+14.544.5W 14 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 Illinois at Iowa+12.037.5L 23 - 33OY
Sat 11/27 Illinois vs Northwestern-7.045.0W 47 - 14OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.552.5W 43 - 0UY
Sat 9/11 Virginia vs Illinois-10.557.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 9/18 Virginia at North Carolina+7.567.0L 39 - 59ON
Fri 9/24 Virginia vs Wake Forest-3.571.0L 17 - 37UN
Thu 9/30 Virginia at Miami+3.563.5W 30 - 28UY
Sat 10/9 Virginia at Louisville+2.569.5W 34 - 33UY
Sat 10/16 Virginia vs Duke-10.569.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 10/23 Virginia vs Georgia Tech-6.566.0W 48 - 40OY
Sat 10/30 Virginia at BYU+2.566.5L 49 - 66ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13 Virginia vs Notre Dame+7.562.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/20 Virginia at Pittsburgh+12.569.0L 38 - 48OY
Sat 11/27 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-7.063.5L 24 - 29UN
Wed 12/29 Virginia vs SMU-2.571.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL.1340%20.245%3.3817433%1563.16.1844%21.945%42%3.3452.811.6
UVA.3250%34.651%3.4912450%3924.33.3447%31.849%46%3.856.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense1220.21639.7%3.161183301741564.559%41%45%33%16%.13
UVA Defense1231.821.147%3.81.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%46%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense1221.922.443.6%3.341.6 - - - - - 52%48%45%42%15%.18
UVA Offense1234.632.150.3%4.331.5275161243924.432%67%51%50%18%.32

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois1229:1117.638%38%552.811.65.72.5028
Virginia1230:4226.546%40%6.456.81.51.24.51.6025.7
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense1259%45%39173.64.512.153.3886%9%0.87
UVA Defense1253%49% - - - - .33.5778%8%1.03
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense1252%45% - - - - .143.2178%9%0.83
UVA Offense1232%51%28.3123.64.421.263.4983%10%0.98

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense1241%33%13.826.8156.25.811.4136.121.734%25%.157%1.8
UVA Defense1246%46% - - - - - - 8.441.629%35%.576%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense1248%42% - - - - - - 9.261.431%27%.186%1.7
UVA Offense1267%50%29.346.2392.28.513.43112.381.530%41%.598%2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois:    Virginia: 6.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3   Virginia: 7.2




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 6.1 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.4

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 34
Illinois 20

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 41
Illinois 19

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 28
Illinois 22

Total Points: 50
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.1
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202209/10Illinois24Virginia3Illinois -4Illinois55.0Under
202109/11Virginia42Illinois14Virginia -10.5Virginia57.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia110 Overs
Illinois112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatILLUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #64 #55
Perf GradeGrade #53 #69
OffenseOff #84 #19
DefenseDef #39 #121
Spec TeamsST #26 #63
TalentTal #51 #53
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Illinois on Offense
CategoryCat
ILL OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #121
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #99 #100
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #77 #132
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #59
Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #127 #61
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #100 #128
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Virginia on Offense
CategoryCatUVA OffILL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #19 #39
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #8 #32
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
UVA OffILL Def
Run GameRun #32 #78
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #12
Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCatUVA OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #11 #24
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #34 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 77° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Virginia -10.5 (57.0)
Virginia won vs Illinois this year (42-14)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Virginia in 2022 (24-3)

  
ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD