SMU at Cincinnati - 2021 Matchup Preview
SMU logo   SMU Mustangs at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Saturday, November 20th 2021 (3:30 PM EST)
Cincinnati -9.5 (65.5)
Cincinnati 48 - SMU: 14  (American Athletic)

 
Mustangs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CIN is playing their 8th straight game
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -8.5  (SP+ CIN -12)
Projected Score: SMU: 27 - CIN: 27 (54)
CIN Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
SMU Travel: 811 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (13 - 1) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (38 - 14)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 SMU vs Abilene Christian-32.066.0W 56 - 9UY
Sat 9/11 SMU vs North Texas-22.575.5W 35 - 12UY
Sat 9/18 SMU at Louisiana Tech-11.065.0W 39 - 37ON
Sat 9/25 SMU at TCU+8.066.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/2 SMU vs South Florida-21.568.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 10/9 SMU at Navy-13.557.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21 SMU vs Tulane-14.070.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/30 SMU at Houston-1.061.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 11/6 SMU at Memphis-3.572.0L 25 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 SMU vs UCF-7.061.5W 55 - 28OY
Sat 11/20 SMU at Cincinnati+9.565.5L 14 - 48UN
Sat 11/27 SMU vs Tulsa-6.063.0L 31 - 34ON
Wed 12/29 SMU vs Virginia+2.571.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)-22.549.0W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/11 Cincinnati vs Murray State-36.551.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/18 Cincinnati at Indiana-4.050.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2 Cincinnati at Notre Dame-2.550.0W 24 - 13UY
Fri 10/8 Cincinnati vs Temple-30.052.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 10/16 Cincinnati vs UCF-21.556.0W 56 - 21OY
Sat 10/23 Cincinnati at Navy-28.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 10/30 Cincinnati at Tulane-27.561.5W 31 - 12UN
Sat 11/6 Cincinnati vs Tulsa-22.556.0W 28 - 20UN
Fri 11/12 Cincinnati at South Florida-24.558.5W 45 - 28ON
Sat 11/20 Cincinnati vs SMU-9.565.5W 48 - 14UY
Fri 11/26 Cincinnati at East Carolina-14.556.5W 35 - 13UY
Sat 12/4 Cincinnati vs Houston-10.552.5W 35 - 20OY
Fri 12/31 Cincinnati vs Alabama+13.057.5L 6 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU.2645%32.246%3.0317844%3183.75.2443%20.543%43%4.6861.71.21.6
CIN.2546%30.342%2.8821351%2394.01.0134%25.638%31%1.9876.21.62
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1032.229.845.3%3.751.2254961783184.746%54%46%44%14%.26
CIN Defense1025.619.634.2%1.982 - - - - - 46%54%38%31%20%.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1020.522.243%4.681.6 - - - - - 53%47%43%43%18%.24
CIN Offense1030.334.446.2%4.011.6224512132395.653%47%42%51%16%.25

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1029:222547%41%6.961.71.21.67.52.5131.2
Cincinnati1032:0021.945%67%8.776.21.627.22.9236.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1046%46%37.6177.84.724.143.0383%9%0.98
CIN Defense1046%38% - - - - .022.5781%12%0.92
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1053%43% - - - - .172.967%12%1.09
CIN Offense1053%42%38.1212.65.629.132.8860%11%1.12

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1054%44%24.637.63188.512.9236.361.733%37%.496%2.3
CIN Defense1054%31% - - - - - - 16-1.635%25%.148%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1047%43% - - - - - - 7.311.734%36%.416%2
CIN Offense1047%51%19.729.5238.68.112.1206.391.529%38%.435%1.8

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
SMU's 2021 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #69

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU:    Cincinnati: 13.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.9   Cincinnati: 21.2




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 13.1 NR
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: NR
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Cincinnati's 2021 Expected Record: -
Cincinnati's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.2  #5
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #13
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.9  #11

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 27
Cincinnati 27

Projected Total Points: 54
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2021 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/22SMU27Cincinnati29Cincinnati -3.5SMU59.5Under
202111/20Cincinnati48SMU14Cincinnati -9.5Cincinnati65.5Under
202010/24SMU13Cincinnati42SMU -1.5Cincinnati56.5Under
201810/27SMU20Cincinnati26Cincinnati -9.5SMU50.0Under
201710/21Cincinnati28SMU31SMU -6Cincinnati66.0Under
201410/18SMU3Cincinnati41Cincinnati -14.5Cincinnati0
201311/09Cincinnati28SMU25Cincinnati -10.5SMU0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati640 Overs
SMU135 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 54 - 31 - 23 - 1
Road Teams5 - 23 - 41 - 32 - 1

(#) SMU at (#) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #44 #5
Perf GradeGrade #40 #11
OffenseOff #43 #32
DefenseDef #73 #5
Spec TeamsST #15 #9
TalentTal #63 #52
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCat
SMU OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #5
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #18 #11
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #34 #17
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #13
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #18 #3
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #4
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Cincinnati on Offense
CategoryCatCIN OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #32 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #13 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Cincinnati Run Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #8 #23
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #98
Cincinnati Pass Game
CategoryCatCIN OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #13 #129
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #81 #15
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'21 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Cincinnati -9.5 (65.5)
Cincinnati won vs SMU this year (48-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SMU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Jim Leavitt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

CIN's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD