South Florida at SMU - 2021 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo   South Florida Bulls at SMU Mustangs  SMU logo
Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
SMU -21.5 (68.5)
SMU 41 - South Florida: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Charlie Weis Jr. (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
USF 2nd straight Road Game
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
USF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -13  (SP+ SMU -21)
Projected Score: USF: 29 - SMU: 31 (60)
SMU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 914 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
South Florida's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 South Florida at NC State+20.058.0L 0 - 45UN
Sat 9/11 South Florida vs Florida+29.057.0L 20 - 42OY
Sat 9/18 South Florida vs Florida A&M-22.550.0W 38 - 17ON
Sat 9/25 South Florida at BYU+23.554.5L 27 - 35OY
Sat 10/2 South Florida at SMU+21.568.5L 17 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 South Florida vs Tulsa+7.556.0L 31 - 32OY
Sat 10/23 South Florida vs Temple-1.554.5W 34 - 14UY
Thu 10/28 South Florida at East Carolina+9.555.5L 14 - 29UN
Sat 11/6 South Florida vs Houston+13.553.0L 42 - 54OY
Fri 11/12 South Florida vs Cincinnati+24.558.5L 28 - 45OY
Sat 11/20 South Florida at Tulane+5.559.5L 14 - 45UN
Fri 11/26 South Florida at UCF+17.062.0L 13 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
SMU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 SMU vs Abilene Christian-32.066.0W 56 - 9UY
Sat 9/11 SMU vs North Texas-22.575.5W 35 - 12UY
Sat 9/18 SMU at Louisiana Tech-11.065.0W 39 - 37ON
Sat 9/25 SMU at TCU+8.066.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/2 SMU vs South Florida-21.568.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 10/9 SMU at Navy-13.557.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21 SMU vs Tulane-14.070.5W 55 - 26OY
Sat 10/30 SMU at Houston-1.061.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 11/6 SMU at Memphis-3.572.0L 25 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 SMU vs UCF-7.061.5W 55 - 28OY
Sat 11/20 SMU at Cincinnati+9.565.5L 14 - 48UN
Sat 11/27 SMU vs Tulsa-6.063.0L 31 - 34ON
Wed 12/29 SMU vs Virginia+2.571.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF.0840%40.540%2.8314941%2172.29.2247%23.446%48%4.2948.91.91.4
SMU.2645%32.246%3.0317844%3183.75.2443%20.543%43%4.6861.71.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense940.53540.3%2.291.921365149217448%51%40%41%20%.08
SMU Defense1020.519.243%4.681.6 - - - - - 53%47%43%43%18%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense923.432.346.6%4.291.4 - - - - - 56%44%46%48%13%.22
SMU Offense1032.23645.3%3.751.2254961783184.746%54%46%44%14%.26

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida928:272131%29%5.348.91.91.44.80.8328.5
SMU1029:222547%41%6.961.71.21.67.52.5131.2
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense948%40%37.4148.8411.072.8372%14%0.93
SMU Defense1053%43% - - - - .172.967%12%1.09
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense956%46% - - - - .132.9479%8%0.95
SMU Offense1046%46%37.6177.84.724.143.0383%9%0.98

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense951%41%20.834.7216.66.310.4126.091.434%25%.096%2
SMU Defense1047%43% - - - - - - 7.311.734%36%.416%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense944%48% - - - - - - 10.341.629%34%.464%2.1
SMU Offense1054%44%24.637.63188.512.9236.361.733%37%.496%2.3

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: NR
South Florida's Offense Rating: NR
South Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1  #111
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #118

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida:    SMU: 6.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -12.1   SMU: 8.9




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 6.95 NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
SMU's 2021 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #69

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 31
South Florida 29

Projected Total Points: 60
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202211/12South Florida23SMU41SMU -17.5SMU72.5Under
202110/02SMU41South Florida17SMU -21.5SMU68.5Under
201909/28South Florida21SMU48SMU -7SMU62.0Over
201611/19SMU27South Florida35South Florida -12.5SMU73.0Under
201510/24South Florida38SMU14South Florida -13South Florida62.0Under
201411/15SMU13South Florida14South Florida -12SMU0
201311/23South Florida6SMU16SMU -5.5SMU0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU461 Overs
South Florida314 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 54 - 32 - 02 - 3
Road Teams5 - 23 - 43 - 20 - 2

(#) USF at (#) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #111 #44
Perf GradeGrade #114 #40
OffenseOff #111 #43
DefenseDef #118 #73
Spec TeamsST #29 #15
TalentTal #73 #63
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
South Florida on Offense
CategoryCat
USF OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #96 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
South Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
USF OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #87 #23
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #98
South Florida Pass Game
CategoryCat
USF OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #124 #129
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #15
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCatSMU OffUSF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #118
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #18 #118
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #34 #117
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #135
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCatSMU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #18 #111
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #124
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

USF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
SMU -21.5 (68.5)
SMU won vs South Florida this year (41-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USF's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Glenn Spencer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

SMU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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SMU's DC Jim Leavitt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD