Nevada at Boise State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -3.5 (59.0)
Nevada 41 - Boise State: 31 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (27 - 23)
Avg Score : 36 - 27 (31 - 26 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV coming off BYE
BSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ BSU -6)
Projected Score: NEV: 23 - BSU: 30 (53)
BSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs behind

Broncos (7 - 5) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Andy Avalos (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Nevada at California	+2.5	52.5	W 22 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Nevada vs Idaho State	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Nevada at Kansas State	-1.5	51.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Nevada at Boise State	+3.5	59.0	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Nevada vs New Mexico State	-28.5	64.5	W 55 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/16	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-14.0	61.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Nevada at Fresno State	+3.5	64.5	L 32 - 34	O	Y
Fri 10/29	Nevada vs UNLV	-19.0	58.0	W 51 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Nevada vs San José State	-11.5	55.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/13	Nevada at San Diego State	+2.5	45.0	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Fri 11/19	Nevada vs Air Force	+1.5	53.5	L 39 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/27	Nevada at Colorado State	-3.0	57.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Mon 12/27	Nevada vs Western Michigan	+7.0	56.0	L 24 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Boise State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Boise State at UCF	+6.5	67.0	L 31 - 36	U	Y
Fri 9/10	Boise State vs UTEP	-25.0	56.0	W 54 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Boise State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	58.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/25	Boise State at Utah State	-9.5	69.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Boise State vs Nevada	-3.5	59.0	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/9	Boise State at BYU	+6.0	58.0	W 26 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Boise State vs Air Force	-3.0	52.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Boise State at Colorado State	-2.0	51.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Boise State at Fresno State	+4.0	61.5	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/12	Boise State vs Wyoming	-14.0	49.0	W 23 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/20	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	48.0	W 37 - 0	U	Y
Fri 11/26	Boise State at San Diego State	-3.0	44.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 12/31	Boise State vs Central Michigan	-7.5	55.5

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.27	43%	35.7	40%	2.77	77	45%	347	4.01	.21	46%	26.5	52%	41%	3.75	55.1	0.8	2.7
BSU	.19	43%	29.2	41%	2.75	122	44%	261	3.99	.13	38%	19	40%	37%	3.26	49.6	1.3	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	13	35.7	30.8	42.9%	4.01	0.8	22	424	77	347	3	32%	67%	40%	45%	16%	.27
BSU Defense	12	19	18.7	38.5%	3.26	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	37%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	13	26.5	25.5	46.2%	3.75	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	52%	41%	18%	.21
BSU Offense	12	29.2	30.3	43%	3.99	1.3	22	383	122	261	3.2	47%	53%	41%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	13	28:52	22.2	41%	57%	6.5	55.1	0.8	2.7	6.1	3.2	3	31.2
Boise State	12	29:57	22	44%	38%	5	49.6	1.3	1.9	5.5	2.3	4	29.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	13	32%	40%	25.9	77.4	3	13	.07	2.77	70%	11%	0.96
BSU Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.93	67%	11%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	13	50%	52%	-	-	-	-	.27	3.56	82%	11%	1.01
BSU Offense	12	47%	41%	38.3	122.2	3.2	15	.05	2.75	69%	10%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	13	67%	45%	30.4	44	347	7.9	11.4	38	9	.39	1.6	32%	34%	.44	5%	2
BSU Defense	12	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.22	1.7	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.5	28%	29%	.22	7%	2
BSU Offense	12	53%	44%	21.2	34.2	260.6	7.6	12.3	20	10	.31	1.5	32%	34%	.45	5%	2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Nevada's 2021 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6 #67
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #54
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: Boise State: 7.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: 3.6 Boise State: 9.4

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 7.2 NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Boise State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #69
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #23

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Nevada's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 30
Nevada 23

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 32
Nevada 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 28
Nevada 26

Total Points: 54

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Boise State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/24	Nevada	3	Boise State	24	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	51.5	Under
2024	11/09	Boise State	28	Nevada	21	Boise State -23.5	Nevada	60.5	Under
2022	11/12	Nevada	3	Boise State	41	Boise State -21	Boise State	47.0	Under
2021	10/02	Boise State	31	Nevada	41	Boise State -3.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2018	10/13	Nevada	27	Boise State	31	Boise State -15	Nevada	59.5	Under
2017	11/04	Boise State	41	Nevada	14	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	63.0	Under
2014	10/04	Nevada	46	Boise State	51	Boise State -1.5	Boise State	0
2013	10/19	Boise State	34	Nevada	17	Boise State -21.5	Nevada	0
2012	12/01	Nevada	21	Boise State	27
2011	10/01	Boise State	30	Nevada	10
2010	11/26	Nevada	34	Boise State	31
2009	11/27	Boise State	44	Nevada	33
2008	11/22	Nevada	34	Boise State	41
2007	10/14	Boise State	69	Nevada	67
2006	11/25	Nevada	7	Boise State	38
2005	10/29	Boise State	49	Nevada	14
2004	11/27	Nevada	21	Boise State	58
2003	11/29	Boise State	56	Nevada	3
2001	10/27	Boise State	49	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	17	4	1 Overs
Nevada	2	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 10	6 - 2	3 - 1	3 - 1

(#) NEV at (#) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	BSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#42
OffenseOff	#58	#77
DefenseDef	#74	#32
Spec TeamsST	#42	#66
TalentTal	#98	#70
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Nevada Injury Report

Boise State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#32
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#23
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#112
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#77	#74
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#69	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#61	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#38
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74°

Rematch from Week 5
Boise State -3.5 (59.0)
Nevada won at Boise State this year (41-31)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (28-21)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-3)

NEV's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD