New Mexico State at Nevada - 2021 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (10:30 PM EDT)
Nevada -28.5 (64.5)
Nevada 55 - New Mexico State: 28

Aggies (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Doug Martin (23 - 67)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -16.5 (SP+ NEV -28)
Projected Score: NMSU: 24 - NEV: 26 (50)
NEV Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
NMSU Travel: 886 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (27 - 23)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	New Mexico State vs UTEP	+9.5	59.0	L 3 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/4	New Mexico State at San Diego State	+31.0	51.0	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/11	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+19.5	55.5	L 25 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/18	New Mexico State vs South Carolina State	-3.5	54.5	W 43 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	+17.0	63.0	L 21 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/2	New Mexico State at San José State	+25.5	51.5	L 31 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	New Mexico State at Nevada	+28.5	64.5	L 28 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+18.0	62.5	L 34 - 48	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	New Mexico State vs Utah State	+18.0	72.0	L 13 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/13	New Mexico State at Alabama	+50.0	67.0	L 3 - 59	U	N
Sat 11/20	New Mexico State at Kentucky	+35.5	61.0	L 16 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/27	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	58.5	W 44 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Nevada's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Nevada at California	+2.5	52.5	W 22 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Nevada vs Idaho State	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Nevada at Kansas State	-1.5	51.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Nevada at Boise State	+3.5	59.0	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Nevada vs New Mexico State	-28.5	64.5	W 55 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/16	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-14.0	61.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Nevada at Fresno State	+3.5	64.5	L 32 - 34	O	Y
Fri 10/29	Nevada vs UNLV	-19.0	58.0	W 51 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Nevada vs San José State	-11.5	55.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/13	Nevada at San Diego State	+2.5	45.0	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Fri 11/19	Nevada vs Air Force	+1.5	53.5	L 39 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/27	Nevada at Colorado State	-3.0	57.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Mon 12/27	Nevada vs Western Michigan	+7.0	56.0	L 24 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	-.12	27%	21.6	43%	2.11	0	23%	0	1.11	.38	39%	27.6	46%	33%	3.15	0	0	0
NEV	.26	43%	17.6	42%	2.62	121	44%	317	3.49	.14	41%	27.5	41%	41%	3.55	69.4	1	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	0	21.6	20	27.3%	1.11	0	0	0	0	0	0	32%	59%	43%	23%	0%	-.12
NEV Defense	9	27.5	25.2	40.9%	3.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	41%	41%	13%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	0	27.6	37.5	39.1%	3.15	0	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	46%	33%	0%	.38
NEV Offense	9	17.6	19.7	42.9%	3.49	1	21	439	121	317	4.3	38%	61%	42%	44%	15%	.26

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	0	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25.5
Nevada	9	31:33	21.2	42%	67%	7.9	69.4	1	1	5.8	2.6	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	0	32%	43%	0	0	0	0	-.1	2.11	50%	0%	0.49
NEV Defense	9	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.86	68%	9%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	0	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	.69	2.97	100%	0%	2.13
NEV Offense	9	38%	42%	28.2	121.2	4.3	7	.1	2.62	57%	11%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	0	59%	23%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-.07	1.8	27%	0%	-.53	0%	0
NEV Defense	9	54%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.2	1.4	32%	29%	.28	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	0	46%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.07	1.4	43%	25%	.46	0%	3
NEV Offense	9	61%	44%	27.7	39.7	317.4	8	11.5	26	4	.37	1.6	30%	34%	.51	4%	2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #147
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2021 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.2 #129
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.7 #130

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Nevada: 4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.2 Nevada: 3.6

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: 4.3 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2021 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6 #67
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #54
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Nevada 26
New Mexico State 24

Projected Total Points: 50

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	08/27	New Mexico State	12	Nevada	23	Nevada -7	Nevada	48.0	Under
2021	10/09	Nevada	55	New Mexico State	28	Nevada -28.5	New Mexico State	64.5	Over
2011	10/29	New Mexico State	34	Nevada	48
2010	11/20	Nevada	52	New Mexico State	6
2009	11/21	New Mexico State	20	Nevada	63
2008	10/11	Nevada	45	New Mexico State	48
2007	11/02	New Mexico State	38	Nevada	40
2006	10/28	Nevada	48	New Mexico State	21
2005	11/12	New Mexico State	24	Nevada	48

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	8	1	1 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 6	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 3	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#) NMSU at (#) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#129	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#135	#58
OffenseOff	#130	#58
DefenseDef	#136	#74
Spec TeamsST	#109	#42
TalentTal	#147	#98
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Nevada Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#130	#74
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#133	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#99	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#38
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#130
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#135
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'21 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Nevada -28.5 (64.5)
Nevada won vs New Mexico State this year (55-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC Doug Martin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Frank Spaziani (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEV's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD