Nevada at San Diego State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, November 13th 2021 (10:30 PM EST)
San Diego State -2.5 (45.0)
San Diego State 23 - Nevada: 21 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (27 - 23)
Avg Score : 36 - 27 (31 - 26 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
NEV is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ SDSU -5)
Projected Score: NEV: 28 - SDSU: 26 (54)
SDSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 1764 miles

Aztecs (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brady Hoke (7 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (28 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Nevada at California	+2.5	52.5	W 22 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Nevada vs Idaho State	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Nevada at Kansas State	-1.5	51.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Nevada at Boise State	+3.5	59.0	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Nevada vs New Mexico State	-28.5	64.5	W 55 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/16	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-14.0	61.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Nevada at Fresno State	+3.5	64.5	L 32 - 34	O	Y
Fri 10/29	Nevada vs UNLV	-19.0	58.0	W 51 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Nevada vs San José State	-11.5	55.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/13	Nevada at San Diego State	+2.5	45.0	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Fri 11/19	Nevada vs Air Force	+1.5	53.5	L 39 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/27	Nevada at Colorado State	-3.0	57.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Mon 12/27	Nevada vs Western Michigan	+7.0	56.0	L 24 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	San Diego State vs New Mexico State	-31.0	51.0	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/11	San Diego State at Arizona	+1.5	46.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/18	San Diego State vs Utah	+8.0	42.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/25	San Diego State vs Towson	-23.0	41.0	W 48 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-19.5	42.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 10/15	San Diego State at San José State	-10.0	41.0	W 19 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/23	San Diego State at Air Force	+3.0	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+2.0	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/6	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-7.0	45.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/13	San Diego State vs Nevada	-2.5	45.0	W 23 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/19	San Diego State at UNLV	-11.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/26	San Diego State vs Boise State	+3.0	44.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	-6.5	49.5	L 13 - 46	O	N
Tue 12/21	San Diego State vs UTSA	-3.0	48.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.27	43%	35.7	40%	2.77	77	45%	347	4.01	.21	46%	26.5	52%	41%	3.75	55.1	0.8	2.7
SDSU	.15	40%	27.4	40%	3	175	39%	168	3.57	.07	36%	19.8	33%	38%	3.46	67.9	1	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	13	35.7	30.8	42.9%	4.01	0.8	22	424	77	347	3	32%	67%	40%	45%	16%	.27
SDSU Defense	14	19.8	22.8	35.8%	3.46	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	39%	61%	33%	38%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	13	26.5	25.5	46.2%	3.75	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	52%	41%	18%	.21
SDSU Offense	14	27.4	27.9	39.7%	3.57	1	19	343	175	168	4.3	56%	43%	40%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	13	28:52	22.2	41%	57%	6.5	55.1	0.8	2.7	6.1	3.2	3	31.2
San Diego State	14	32:04	18.6	32%	63%	7.4	67.9	1	1.9	6.8	2.9	5	30.5

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	13	32%	40%	25.9	77.4	3	13	.07	2.77	70%	11%	0.96
SDSU Defense	14	39%	33%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.61	65%	12%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	13	50%	52%	-	-	-	-	.27	3.56	82%	11%	1.01
SDSU Offense	14	56%	40%	40.8	174.9	4.3	26	.17	3	76%	10%	1.14

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	13	67%	45%	30.4	44	347	7.9	11.4	38	9	.39	1.6	32%	34%	.44	5%	2
SDSU Defense	14	61%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.18	1.5	36%	26%	.19	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.5	28%	29%	.22	7%	2
SDSU Offense	14	43%	39%	14.9	25.8	167.9	6.5	11.3	16	5	.17	1.4	33%	28%	.24	5%	1.9

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Nevada's 2021 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6 #67
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #54
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: San Diego State: 6.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: 3.6 San Diego State: 8.3

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 6.65 NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San Diego State's 2021 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #93
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #12

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Nevada's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Nevada 28
San Diego State 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 29
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Nevada 27
San Diego State 27

Total Points: 54

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.9
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

San Diego State's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Nevada	10	San Diego State	44	San Diego State -6.5	San Diego State	42.5	Over
2023	10/21	San Diego State	0	Nevada	6	San Diego State -11	Nevada	48.5	Under
2022	10/22	Nevada	7	San Diego State	23	San Diego State -7.5	San Diego State	36.0	Under
2021	11/13	San Diego State	23	Nevada	21	San Diego State -2.5	Nevada	45.0	Under
2020	11/21	Nevada	26	San Diego State	21	San Diego State -1.5	Nevada	46.5	Over
2019	11/09	San Diego State	13	Nevada	17	San Diego State -17	Nevada	39.5	Under
2018	10/27	Nevada	28	San Diego State	24	Nevada -1	Nevada	45.5	Over
2017	11/18	San Diego State	42	Nevada	23	San Diego State -17.5	San Diego State	56.0	Over
2016	11/12	Nevada	16	San Diego State	46	San Diego State -20.5	San Diego State	50.5	Over
2015	11/28	San Diego State	31	Nevada	14	San Diego State -14	San Diego State	48.5	Under
2014	11/01	Nevada	30	San Diego State	14	Nevada -6	Nevada	0
2013	10/04	San Diego State	51	Nevada	44	San Diego State -5.5	San Diego State	0
2012	10/20	Nevada	38	San Diego State	39
2004	09/25	San Diego State	27	Nevada	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	9	6	5 Overs
Nevada	5	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	6 - 6	5 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 8	6 - 6	3 - 1	3 - 5

(#) NEV at (#) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#34
OffenseOff	#58	#54
DefenseDef	#74	#21
Spec TeamsST	#42	#18
TalentTal	#98	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Nevada Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#21
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#12
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#48

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#74
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#93	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#100	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#38
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in StubHub Center
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66°

Rematch from Week 11
San Diego State -2.5 (45.0)
San Diego State won vs Nevada this year (23-21)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat San Diego State in 2023 (6-0)
San Diego State beat Nevada in 2022 (23-7)

NEV's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD