Boise State at UCF - 2021 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo   Boise State Broncos at UCF Knights  UCF logo
Thursday, September 2nd 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
UCF -6.5 (67.0)
UCF 36 - Boise State: 31

 
Broncos (7 - 5) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Andy Avalos (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -0  (SP+ BSU -4.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 22 - UCF: 26 (48)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BSU Travel: 2189 miles, 2 hrs behind
Knights (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Boise State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 Boise State at UCF+6.567.0L 31 - 36UY
Fri 9/10 Boise State vs UTEP-25.056.0W 54 - 13OY
Sat 9/18 Boise State vs Oklahoma State-3.558.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 9/25 Boise State at Utah State-9.569.5W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/2 Boise State vs Nevada-3.559.0L 31 - 41ON
Sat 10/9 Boise State at BYU+6.058.0W 26 - 17UY
Sat 10/16 Boise State vs Air Force-3.052.0L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Boise State at Colorado State-2.051.5W 28 - 19UY
Sat 11/6 Boise State at Fresno State+4.061.5W 40 - 14UY
Fri 11/12 Boise State vs Wyoming-14.049.0W 23 - 13UN
Sat 11/20 Boise State vs New Mexico-27.548.0W 37 - 0UY
Fri 11/26 Boise State at San Diego State-3.044.0L 16 - 27UN
Fri 12/31 Boise State vs Central Michigan-7.555.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 UCF vs Boise State-6.567.0W 36 - 31UN
Sat 9/11 UCF vs Bethune-Cookman-46.067.0W 63 - 14OY
Fri 9/17 UCF at Louisville-7.067.5L 35 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2 UCF at Navy-15.052.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 10/9 UCF vs East Carolina-10.065.0W 20 - 16UN
Sat 10/16 UCF at Cincinnati+21.556.0L 21 - 56ON
Fri 10/22 UCF vs Memphis-1.563.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/30 UCF at Temple-12.052.0W 49 - 7OY
Sat 11/6 UCF vs Tulane-13.557.0W 14 - 10UN
Sat 11/13 UCF at SMU+7.061.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/20 UCF vs UConn-30.056.0W 49 - 17OY
Fri 11/26 UCF vs South Florida-17.062.0W 17 - 13UN
Thu 12/23 UCF vs Florida+7.056.0W 29 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU.2146%29.946%2.6810647%2424.02.1836%24.137%35%4.094810.3
UCF.3349%24.352%3.1921146%3524.43.2146%23.646%47%4.247512.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense729.919.846.4%4.021183481062423.248%52%46%47%16%.21
UCF Defense1023.615.746.1%4.242.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%47%18%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense724.123.836.2%4.090.3 - - - - - 53%47%37%35%16%.18
UCF Offense1024.332.648.7%4.431285632113524.849%51%52%46%14%.33

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State729:3018.444%57%4.94810.37.32.6431.5
UCF1027:3028.149%55%9.27512.27.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense748%46%32.9105.93.213.052.6883%11%0.77
UCF Defense1051%46% - - - - .042.8464%12%0.82
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense753%37% - - - - .132.968%12%1.15
UCF Offense1049%52%44.4210.74.823.183.1986%8%0.83

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense752%47%19.931.6241.97.712.2123.361.531%34%.325%1.9
UCF Defense1049%47% - - - - - - 9.391.732%36%.46%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense747%35% - - - - - - 2.241.736%23%.245%2.2
UCF Offense1051%46%24.440.8352.18.614.4324.471.829%38%.616%2.3

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Boise State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4  #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4  #69
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #23

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State:    UCF: 4.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.4   UCF: 4.8




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.9 NR
UCF's Offense Rating: NR
UCF's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
UCF's 2021 Expected Record: -
UCF's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #62
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #40

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 26
Boise State 22

Projected Total Points: 48
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Boise State16UCF18UCF -3Boise State58.5Under
202109/02UCF36Boise State31UCF -6.5Boise State67.0Push
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF200 Overs
Boise State021 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#) BSU at (#) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUUCF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #41 #62
Perf GradeGrade #42 #61
OffenseOff #77 #69
DefenseDef #32 #39
Spec TeamsST #66 #131
TalentTal #70 #49
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Boise State on Offense
CategoryCat
BSU OffUCF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #77 #39
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #69 #40
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Boise State Run Game
CategoryCat
BSU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #61 #49
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Boise State Pass Game
CategoryCat
BSU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #34 #23
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #75
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
UCF on Offense
CategoryCatUCF OffBSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #69 #32
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #60 #23
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UCF Run Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #47 #51
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #26
UCF Pass Game
CategoryCatUCF OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #88 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #112
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
UCF -6.5 (67.0)
UCF won vs Boise State this year (36-31)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Boise State in 2023 (18-16)

  
BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UCF's OC G. J. Kinne (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD