Boise State at Fresno State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 6th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -4 (61.5)
Boise State 40 - Fresno State: 14 (Mountain West)

Broncos (7 - 5) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Andy Avalos (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (28 - 19 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ FRES -1)
Projected Score: BSU: 25 - FRES: 26 (51)
FRES Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (6 - 4)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Boise State at UCF	+6.5	67.0	L 31 - 36	U	Y
Fri 9/10	Boise State vs UTEP	-25.0	56.0	W 54 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Boise State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	58.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/25	Boise State at Utah State	-9.5	69.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Boise State vs Nevada	-3.5	59.0	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/9	Boise State at BYU	+6.0	58.0	W 26 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Boise State vs Air Force	-3.0	52.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Boise State at Colorado State	-2.0	51.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Boise State at Fresno State	+4.0	61.5	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/12	Boise State vs Wyoming	-14.0	49.0	W 23 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/20	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	48.0	W 37 - 0	U	Y
Fri 11/26	Boise State at San Diego State	-3.0	44.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 12/31	Boise State vs Central Michigan	-7.5	55.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Fresno State vs UConn	-28.0	63.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Fresno State at Oregon	+18.0	62.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-32.5	59.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Fresno State at UCLA	+11.0	64.0	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Fresno State vs UNLV	-30.0	59.0	W 38 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/2	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-10.5	64.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Fresno State at Wyoming	-3.0	53.5	W 17 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Fresno State vs Nevada	-3.5	64.5	W 34 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/30	Fresno State at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Fresno State vs Boise State	-4.0	61.5	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/13	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-24.0	51.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/25	Fresno State at San José State	-7.0	52.5	W 40 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/18	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	.19	43%	29.2	41%	2.75	122	44%	261	3.99	.13	38%	19	40%	37%	3.26	49.6	1.3	1.9
FRES	.26	48%	33.4	46%	2.86	137	49%	327	3.86	.11	38%	20.5	41%	36%	3.54	71.2	1.7	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	12	29.2	28	43%	3.99	1.3	22	383	122	261	3.2	47%	53%	41%	44%	15%	.19
FRES Defense	13	20.5	19.8	38.5%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	36%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	12	19	19.3	38.5%	3.26	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	37%	17%	.13
FRES Offense	13	33.4	38	47.6%	3.86	1.7	24	464	137	327	4.1	40%	60%	46%	49%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	12	29:57	22	44%	38%	5	49.6	1.3	1.9	5.5	2.3	4	29.8
Fresno State	13	31:26	24.3	43%	53%	7.6	71.2	1.7	2.2	6.9	2.3	0	30.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	12	47%	41%	38.3	122.2	3.2	15	.05	2.75	69%	10%	0.84
FRES Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.81	68%	13%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.93	67%	11%	0.93
FRES Offense	13	40%	46%	33.8	137.2	4.1	17	.06	2.86	64%	9%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	12	53%	44%	21.2	34.2	260.6	7.6	12.3	20	10	.31	1.5	32%	34%	.45	5%	2
FRES Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.17	1.8	34%	28%	.29	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	12	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.22	1.7	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.2
FRES Offense	13	60%	49%	26.3	39.5	326.7	8.3	12.4	35	10	.39	1.5	28%	35%	.34	5%	1.9

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Boise State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #69
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #23

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: Fresno State: 7.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.4 Fresno State: 10.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 7.9 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #27
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #49

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.3

Boise State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 26
Boise State 25

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 26
Fresno State 26

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 27
Boise State 24

Total Points: 51

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Fresno State's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Boise State	7	Fresno State	30	Boise State -17.5	Fresno State	47.5	Under
2023	11/04	Fresno State	37	Boise State	30	Fresno State -2.5	Fresno State	53.5	Over
2022	10/08	Boise State	40	Fresno State	20	Boise State -9	Boise State	45.0	Over
2022	12/03	Boise State	16	Fresno State	28	Boise State -3	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2021	11/06	Fresno State	14	Boise State	40	Fresno State -4	Boise State	61.5	Under
2018	11/09	Boise State	24	Fresno State	17	Fresno State -2.5	Boise State	56.0	Under
2018	12/01	Boise State	16	Fresno State	19	Boise State -2	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2017	12/02	Boise State	17	Fresno State	14	Boise State -9.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2017	11/25	Fresno State	28	Boise State	17	Boise State -6.5	Fresno State	49.0	Under
2014	10/17	Boise State	37	Fresno State	27	Boise State -16	Fresno State	0
2014	12/06	Boise State	28	Fresno State	14	Boise State -17	Fresno State	0
2013	09/20	Fresno State	41	Boise State	40	Fresno State -3	Boise State	0
2012	10/13	Boise State	20	Fresno State	10
2011	10/07	Fresno State	7	Boise State	57
2010	11/19	Boise State	51	Fresno State	0
2009	09/18	Fresno State	34	Boise State	51
2008	11/28	Boise State	61	Fresno State	10
2007	10/26	Fresno State	21	Boise State	34
2006	11/01	Boise State	45	Fresno State	21
2005	11/10	Fresno State	27	Boise State	7
2004	10/23	Boise State	33	Fresno State	16
2003	11/21	Fresno State	17	Boise State	31
2002	10/18	Boise State	67	Fresno State	21
2001	10/19	Fresno State	30	Boise State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	7	8	2 Overs
Boise State	17	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 8	2 - 0
Road Teams	9 - 15	8 - 4	0 - 2	8 - 2

(#) BSU at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#41	#32
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#38
OffenseOff	#77	#67
DefenseDef	#32	#17
Spec TeamsST	#66	#104
TalentTal	#70	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Boise State Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#77	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#69	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#61	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#18

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#46
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#32
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#27	#23
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#112
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Fresno State -4.0 (61.5)
Boise State won at Fresno State this year (40-14)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2023 (37-30)
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2022 (28-16)

BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC William Inge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD