Boise State at San Diego State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Friday, November 26th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Boise State -3 (44.0)
San Diego State 27 - Boise State: 16  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (7 - 5) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Andy Avalos (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (28 - 19 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SDSU is playing their 8th straight game
BSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -2  (SP+ BSU -1)
Projected Score: BSU: 26 - SDSU: 20 (46)
BSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BSU Travel: 1672 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brady Hoke (7 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (28 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Boise State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 Boise State at UCF+6.567.0L 31 - 36UY
Fri 9/10 Boise State vs UTEP-25.056.0W 54 - 13OY
Sat 9/18 Boise State vs Oklahoma State-3.558.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 9/25 Boise State at Utah State-9.569.5W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/2 Boise State vs Nevada-3.559.0L 31 - 41ON
Sat 10/9 Boise State at BYU+6.058.0W 26 - 17UY
Sat 10/16 Boise State vs Air Force-3.052.0L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Boise State at Colorado State-2.051.5W 28 - 19UY
Sat 11/6 Boise State at Fresno State+4.061.5W 40 - 14UY
Fri 11/12 Boise State vs Wyoming-14.049.0W 23 - 13UN
Sat 11/20 Boise State vs New Mexico-27.548.0W 37 - 0UY
Fri 11/26 Boise State at San Diego State-3.044.0L 16 - 27UN
Fri 12/31 Boise State vs Central Michigan-7.555.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.051.0W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/11 San Diego State at Arizona+1.546.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/18 San Diego State vs Utah+8.042.5W 33 - 31OY
Sat 9/25 San Diego State vs Towson-23.041.0W 48 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9 San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.542.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 10/15 San Diego State at San José State-10.041.0W 19 - 13UN
Sat 10/23 San Diego State at Air Force+3.038.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/30 San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.043.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 11/6 San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.045.0W 17 - 10UN
Sat 11/13 San Diego State vs Nevada-2.545.0W 23 - 21UN
Fri 11/19 San Diego State at UNLV-11.041.0W 28 - 20ON
Fri 11/26 San Diego State vs Boise State+3.044.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 12/4 San Diego State vs Utah State-6.549.5L 13 - 46ON
Tue 12/21 San Diego State vs UTSA-3.048.0W 38 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU.1943%29.241%2.7512244%2613.99.1338%1940%37%3.2649.61.31.9
SDSU.1540%27.440%317539%1683.57.0736%19.833%38%3.4667.911.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1229.22843%3.991.3223831222613.247%53%41%44%15%.19
SDSU Defense1419.822.835.8%3.461.9 - - - - - 39%61%33%38%20%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense121919.338.5%3.261.9 - - - - - 55%45%40%37%17%.13
SDSU Offense1427.427.939.7%3.571193431751684.356%43%40%39%15%.15

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1229:572244%38%549.61.31.95.52.3429.8
San Diego State1432:0418.632%63%7.467.911.96.82.9530.5
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1247%41%38.3122.23.215.052.7569%10%0.84
SDSU Defense1439%33% - - - - -.062.6165%12%0.84
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1255%40% - - - - .12.9367%11%0.93
SDSU Offense1456%40%40.8174.94.326.17376%10%1.14

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1253%44%21.234.2260.67.612.32010.311.532%34%.455%2
SDSU Defense1461%38% - - - - - - 17.181.536%26%.198%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1245%37% - - - - - - 13.221.734%26%.226%2.2
SDSU Offense1443%39%14.925.8167.96.511.3165.171.433%28%.245%1.9

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Boise State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4  #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4  #69
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #23

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State:    San Diego State: 6.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.4   San Diego State: 8.3




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 6.65 NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San Diego State's 2021 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #93
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.3

Boise State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 26
San Diego State 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 28
San Diego State 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 25
San Diego State 23

Total Points: 48
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.9
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

San Diego State's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15San Diego State17Boise State7San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16Boise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19Boise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31San Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31Boise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State563 Overs
Boise State634 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 56 - 33 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 63 - 60 - 33 - 3

(#) BSU at (#) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUSDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #41 #50
Perf GradeGrade #42 #34
OffenseOff #77 #54
DefenseDef #32 #21
Spec TeamsST #66 #18
TalentTal #70 #95
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Boise State on Offense
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #77 #21
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #69 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Boise State Run Game
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #61 #55
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #48
Boise State Pass Game
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #34 #13
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #23
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
San Diego State on Offense
CategoryCatSDSU OffBSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #54 #32
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #93 #23
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
San Diego State Run Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #100 #51
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #26
San Diego State Pass Game
CategoryCatSDSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #91 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #112
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in StubHub Center
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Boise State 3.0 (44.0)
San Diego State won vs Boise State this year (27-16)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

  
BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD