UCF at Navy - 2021 Matchup Preview
UCF logo   UCF Knights at Navy Midshipmen  Navy logo
Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -15 (52.5)
Navy 34 - UCF: 30  (American Athletic)

 
Knights (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UCF coming off BYE
Our Line: -4  (SP+ UCF -13.5)
Projected Score: UCF: 22 - NAVY: 32 (54)
UCF Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
UCF Travel: 766 miles
Midshipmen (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (101 - 69)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 UCF vs Boise State-6.567.0W 36 - 31UN
Sat 9/11 UCF vs Bethune-Cookman-46.067.0W 63 - 14OY
Fri 9/17 UCF at Louisville-7.067.5L 35 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2 UCF at Navy-15.052.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 10/9 UCF vs East Carolina-10.065.0W 20 - 16UN
Sat 10/16 UCF at Cincinnati+21.556.0L 21 - 56ON
Fri 10/22 UCF vs Memphis-1.563.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/30 UCF at Temple-12.052.0W 49 - 7OY
Sat 11/6 UCF vs Tulane-13.557.0W 14 - 10UN
Sat 11/13 UCF at SMU+7.061.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/20 UCF vs UConn-30.056.0W 49 - 17OY
Fri 11/26 UCF vs South Florida-17.062.0W 17 - 13UN
Thu 12/23 UCF vs Florida+7.056.0W 29 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Navy's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Navy vs Marshall+3.546.5L 7 - 49ON
Sat 9/11 Navy vs Air Force+6.040.0L 3 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25 Navy at Houston+20.047.0L 20 - 28OY
Sat 10/2 Navy vs UCF+15.052.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 10/9 Navy vs SMU+13.557.0L 24 - 31UY
Thu 10/14 Navy at Memphis+11.055.5L 17 - 35UN
Sat 10/23 Navy vs Cincinnati+28.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Fri 10/29 Navy at Tulsa+11.046.0W 20 - 17UY
Sat 11/6 Navy at Notre Dame+21.047.5L 6 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 Navy vs East Carolina+3.546.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/27 Navy at Temple-13.542.0W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/11 Navy at Army-7.035.5W 17 - 13UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF.3349%24.352%3.1921146%3524.43.2146%23.646%47%4.247512.2
NAVY.0935%31.536%2.6217833%973.6.2143%2543%43%3.9740.21.10.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1024.312.848.7%4.431285632113524.849%51%52%46%14%.33
NAVY Defense102524.243.4%3.970.9 - - - - - 62%38%43%43%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1023.634.646.1%4.242.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%47%18%.21
NAVY Offense1031.53835.1%3.61.114275178973.776%23%36%33%15%.09

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1027:3028.149%55%9.27512.27.12.6029.3
Navy1030:1914.334%67%4.440.21.10.94.50.6027.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1049%52%44.4210.74.823.183.1986%8%0.83
NAVY Defense1062%43% - - - - .173.0583%9%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1051%46% - - - - .042.8464%12%0.82
NAVY Offense1076%36%48.3177.63.715.032.6271%12%1.04

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1051%46%24.440.8352.18.614.4324.471.829%38%.616%2.3
NAVY Defense1038%43% - - - - - - 3.281.531%33%.435%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1049%47% - - - - - - 9.391.732%36%.46%2.1
NAVY Offense1023%33%5.712.497.47.917.164.272.334%24%.263%2.3

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: NR
UCF's Offense Rating: NR
UCF's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UCF's 2021 Expected Record: -
UCF's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #62
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #40

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF:    Navy: -1.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.8   Navy: -8.5




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -1.75 NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #141
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Navy's 2021 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5  #103
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #116
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 32
UCF 22

Projected Total Points: 54
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202211/19UCF14Navy17UCF -14.5Navy53.0Under
202110/02Navy34UCF30UCF -15Navy52.5Over
201811/10UCF35Navy24UCF -23.5Navy68.0Under
201710/21Navy21UCF31UCF -9.5UCF65.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy231 Overs
UCF213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 21 - 30 - 21 - 1
Road Teams2 - 23 - 11 - 12 - 0

(#) UCF at (#) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFNAVY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #62 #103
Perf GradeGrade #61 #115
OffenseOff #69 #93
DefenseDef #39 #125
Spec TeamsST #131 #39
TalentTal #49 #141
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
UCF on Offense
CategoryCat
UCF OffNAVY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #69 #125
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #60 #75
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UCF Run Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #47 #109
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #94
UCF Pass Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #88 #120
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #6 #136
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Navy on Offense
CategoryCatNAVY OffUCF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #39
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #116 #40
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #125 #49
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCatNAVY OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #116 #23
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #136 #75
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
UCF 15.0 (52.5)
Navy won vs UCF this year (34-30)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UCF's OC G. J. Kinne (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NAVY's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC Brian Newberry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD