West Virginia at Cincinnati Week 11 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Cincinnati Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Nippert Stadium Cincinnati, OH · Turf · 40,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 246 miSame TZ
31 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
26
Cincinnati
29
P&R Line Cincinnati -2.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Cincinnati -5.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -5.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Cincinnati Coming off BYE 🛋 West Virginia Coming off BYE
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Cincinnati vs Towson-33.5W38–2056.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/7Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.5L27–2862.5L27–28UY
Sat 9/14Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.5W27–1647.5W27–16UY
Sat 9/21Cincinnati vs Houston-4.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/28Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.0L41–4460.0L41–44OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Cincinnati at UCF+2.0W19–1358.0W19–13UY
Sat 10/19Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.5W24–1451.0W24–14UY
Sat 10/26Cincinnati at Colorado+6.0L23–3457.0L23–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
Sat 11/16Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.0L17–3452.5L17–34UN
Sat 11/23Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.5L15–4154.5L15–41ON
Sat 11/30Cincinnati vs TCU+2.5L13–2058.5L13–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #63
+0.376
Cincinnati #59
+0.505
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #65
+0.498
Cincinnati #63
+0.791
Cincinnati Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #119
0.130
Cincinnati #67
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Cincinnati Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #16
+8.104
Cincinnati #118
+8.071
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #69
+0.847
Cincinnati #43
+0.895
Cincinnati Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #87
71.6
Cincinnati #124
73.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
West Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.3
Cincinnati
-1.3
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Cincinnati
13.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.5
Cincinnati
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Cincinnati Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #56
1.14
Cincinnati #38
1.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #105
1.29
Cincinnati #73
0.57
Cincinnati +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
45.4
Cincinnati #1
64.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #85
37.6
Cincinnati #66
20.8
Cincinnati +19.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
West Virginia
16.4 — 63.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Cincinnati with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Fuqua Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself