Sat, Nov 9 2024
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 246 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -5.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | West Virginia vs Penn State | +7.5L12–34 | 48.0 | L12–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | West Virginia vs UAlbany | -38.5W49–14 | 53.5 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | West Virginia at Pittsburgh | -2.5L34–38 | 60.5 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | West Virginia vs Kansas | -1.5W32–28 | 56.0 | W32–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | West Virginia at Oklahoma State | +2.5W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | West Virginia vs Iowa State | +3.0L16–28 | 54.0 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | West Virginia vs Kansas State | +2.5L18–45 | 56.5 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | West Virginia at Arizona | +5.5W31–26 | 51.5 | W31–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | West Virginia at Cincinnati | +5.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | West Virginia vs Baylor | +2.0L35–49 | 60.0 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | West Virginia vs UCF | +3.0W31–21 | 60.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | +2.5L15–52 | 61.5 | L15–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/17 | West Virginia vs Memphis | +5.0L37–42 | 60.0 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Cincinnati vs Towson | -33.5W38–20 | 56.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh | +2.5L27–28 | 62.5 | L27–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Cincinnati at Miami (OH) | -3.5W27–16 | 47.5 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Cincinnati vs Houston | -4.0W34–0 | 47.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Cincinnati at Texas Tech | +3.0L41–44 | 60.0 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Cincinnati at UCF | +2.0W19–13 | 58.0 | W19–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Cincinnati vs Arizona State | -5.5W24–14 | 51.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Cincinnati at Colorado | +6.0L23–34 | 57.0 | L23–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Cincinnati vs West Virginia | -5.5L24–31 | 54.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Cincinnati at Iowa State | +7.0L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Cincinnati at Kansas State | +7.5L15–41 | 54.5 | L15–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Cincinnati vs TCU | +2.5L13–20 | 58.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +19.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
West Virginia
16.4 — 63.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Cincinnati with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chad Scott
Yr 2
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 3
#1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

