West Virginia at Oklahoma State Week 6 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
West Virginia✈ 962 mi-1 hr TZ
38 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
31
Oklahoma State
32
P&R Line Oklahoma State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 64
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Oklahoma State -2.5 · O/U 65.0
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -2.5
O/U 65.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → West Virginia · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 West Virginia Coming off BYE
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.5W44–2054.0W44–20OY
Sat 9/7Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.5W39–3160.5W39–31ON
Sat 9/14Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/21Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.0L19–2253.5L19–22UN
Sat 9/28Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.0L20–4258.0L20–42ON
Sat 10/5Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.5L14–3865.0L14–38UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Oklahoma State at BYU+8.5L35–3853.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/26Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.0L28–3864.5L28–38ON
Sat 11/2Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.0L21–4257.0L21–42ON
Sat 11/9Oklahoma State at TCU+10.5L13–3868.5L13–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.0L48–5663.5L48–56ON
Fri 11/29Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.5L0–5266.5L0–52UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
West Virginia PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #63
+0.535
Oklahoma State #52
+0.514
West Virginia Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #65
+0.635
Oklahoma State #30
+0.869
Oklahoma State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #119
0.130
Oklahoma State #89
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oklahoma State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #16
+8.527
Oklahoma State #42
+8.960
Oklahoma State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #69
+0.882
Oklahoma State #63
+0.880
West Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #87
71.6
Oklahoma State #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
West Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.3
Oklahoma State
4.8
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.5
Oklahoma State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oklahoma State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #56
1.33
Oklahoma State #94
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #105
1.33
Oklahoma State #101
1.50
Oklahoma State +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oklahoma State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
41.5
Oklahoma State #1
42.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #85
37.6
Oklahoma State #124
41.2
Oklahoma State +1.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Bryan Nardo Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself