Sat, Oct 5 2024
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK
·
Turf
·
60,218 cap
West Virginia✈ 962 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -2.5
O/U 65.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → West Virginia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | West Virginia vs Penn State | +7.5L12–34 | 48.0 | L12–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | West Virginia vs UAlbany | -38.5W49–14 | 53.5 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | West Virginia at Pittsburgh | -2.5L34–38 | 60.5 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | West Virginia vs Kansas | -1.5W32–28 | 56.0 | W32–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | West Virginia at Oklahoma State | +2.5W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | West Virginia vs Iowa State | +3.0L16–28 | 54.0 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | West Virginia vs Kansas State | +2.5L18–45 | 56.5 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | West Virginia at Arizona | +5.5W31–26 | 51.5 | W31–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | West Virginia at Cincinnati | +5.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | West Virginia vs Baylor | +2.0L35–49 | 60.0 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | West Virginia vs UCF | +3.0W31–21 | 60.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | +2.5L15–52 | 61.5 | L15–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/17 | West Virginia vs Memphis | +5.0L37–42 | 60.0 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State | -9.5W44–20 | 54.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Oklahoma State vs Arkansas | -10.5W39–31 | 60.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oklahoma State at Tulsa | -17.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Oklahoma State vs Utah | +1.0L19–22 | 53.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +6.0L20–42 | 58.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia | -2.5L14–38 | 65.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Oklahoma State at BYU | +8.5L35–38 | 53.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oklahoma State at Baylor | +7.0L28–38 | 64.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Oklahoma State vs Arizona State | +5.0L21–42 | 57.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Oklahoma State at TCU | +10.5L13–38 | 68.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | +5.0L48–56 | 63.5 | L48–56 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Oklahoma State at Colorado | +14.5L0–52 | 66.5 | L0–52 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +1.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chad Scott
Yr 2
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 3
#1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%)
· Yr 20 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bryan Nardo
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

