West Virginia at Arizona Week 9 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Arizona Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,798 mi-3 hr TZ
31 26
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
29
Arizona
25
P&R Line West Virginia -4
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Arizona -5.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona -5.5
O/U 51.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Arizona 2nd straight Home Game
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona vs New Mexico-28.0W61–3960.0W61–39ON
Sat 9/7Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.0W22–1065.0W22–10UN
Fri 9/13Arizona at Kansas State+7.0L7–3158.0L7–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Arizona at Utah+7.5W23–1047.0W23–10UY
Sat 10/5Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.0L22–2864.0L22–28UN
Sat 10/12Arizona at BYU+3.0L19–4148.5L19–41ON
Sat 10/19Arizona vs Colorado-2.5L7–3457.5L7–34UN
Sat 10/26Arizona vs West Virginia-5.5L26–3151.5L26–31ON
Sat 11/2Arizona at UCF+6.5L12–5655.0L12–56ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Arizona vs Houston-1.0W27–346.5W27–3UY
Sat 11/23Arizona at TCU+10.5L28–4960.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/30Arizona vs Arizona State+7.5L7–4952.5L7–49ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #63
+0.435
Arizona #93
+0.447
Arizona Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #65
+0.573
Arizona #88
+0.748
Arizona Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #119
0.130
Arizona #99
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #16
+9.151
Arizona #101
+8.275
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #69
+0.871
Arizona #117
+0.833
West Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #87
71.6
Arizona #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
West Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.3
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.5
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #56
1.17
Arizona #58
1.17
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #105
1.33
Arizona #114
1.33
West Virginia +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? West Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
40.2
Arizona #1
34.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #85
41.8
Arizona #121
47.3
West Virginia +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
West Virginia
8.0 — 81.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dino Babers Yr 1 #1
DC Duane Akina Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself