Iowa State at West Virginia Week 7 College Football Matchup Iowa State at West Virginia Matchup - Week 7
Sun, Oct 13 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 732 mi+1 hr TZ
28 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
31
West Virginia
23
P&R Line Iowa State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -3 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Iowa State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -3
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #62
+0.496
West Virginia #63
+0.380
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #49
+0.816
West Virginia #65
+0.430
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #84
0.149
West Virginia #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #37
+8.974
West Virginia #16
+8.037
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #99
+0.852
West Virginia #69
+0.851
Even
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #52
70.0
West Virginia #87
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #10
2.25
West Virginia #56
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #6
0.00
West Virginia #105
1.00
Iowa State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
54.0
West Virginia #1
50.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #80
27.5
West Virginia #85
31.1
Iowa State +3.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself