UCF at West Virginia Week 13 College Football Matchup UCF at West Virginia Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
UCF✈ 766 miSame TZ
Away
21 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
29
West Virginia
31
P&R Line West Virginia -1.5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UCF -3 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UCF, while Game Control favors West Virginia. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
West Virginia wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -3
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UCF · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 West Virginia 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 UCF Coming off BYE
UCF 2024 Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29UCF vs New Hampshire-38.5W57–358.5W57–3OY
Sat 9/7UCF vs Sam Houston-21.5W45–1453.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/14UCF at TCU+1.5W35–3461.5W35–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UCF vs Colorado-12.5L21–4860.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/5UCF at Florida-1.0L13–2462.0L13–24UN
Sat 10/12UCF vs Cincinnati-2.0L13–1958.0L13–19UN
Sat 10/19UCF at Iowa State+13.0L35–3849.5L35–38OY
Sat 10/26UCF vs BYU-2.5L24–3753.5L24–37ON
Sat 11/2UCF vs Arizona-6.5W56–1255.0W56–12OY
Sat 11/9UCF at Arizona State+2.5L31–3555.5L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UCF at West Virginia-3.0L21–3160.0L21–31UN
Fri 11/29UCF vs Utah-9.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UCF PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #58
+0.509
West Virginia #63
+0.358
UCF Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #123
+0.623
West Virginia #65
+0.522
UCF Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #64
0.163
West Virginia #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #86
+8.493
West Virginia #16
+8.964
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #28
+0.909
West Virginia #69
+0.825
UCF Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #35
69.4
West Virginia #87
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UCF Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #62
1.22
West Virginia #56
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #75
1.22
West Virginia #105
1.67
UCF +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? West Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
41.3
West Virginia #1
43.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #113
47.0
West Virginia #85
38.5
West Virginia +2.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
West Virginia
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
West Virginia
84.6 — 8.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Harris Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ted Roof Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself