Memphis at West Virginia Week 1 College Football Matchup Memphis at West Virginia Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 18 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Toyota Stadium Frisco, TX · Turf · 20,500 cap
Memphis✈ 414 miSame TZ West Virginia✈ 1,038 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
42 37
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
34
West Virginia
26
P&R Line Memphis -7.5
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Memphis -5 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -5
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Memphis 2nd straight Road Game
Memphis 2024 Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Memphis vs North Alabama-38.5W40–062.5W40–0UY
Sat 9/7Memphis vs Troy-18.5W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/14Memphis at Florida State+7.0W20–1252.0W20–12UY
Sat 9/21Memphis at Navy-9.5L44–5647.0L44–56ON
Sat 9/28Memphis vs Middle Tennessee-27.0W24–762.0W24–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Memphis vs South Florida-10.0W21–361.0W21–3UY
Sat 10/19Memphis vs North Texas-10.5W52–4467.5W52–44ON
Sat 10/26Memphis vs Charlotte-17.0W33–2856.5W33–28ON
Sat 11/2Memphis at UTSA-7.0L36–4462.0L36–44ON
Fri 11/8Memphis vs Rice-7.5W27–2050.5W27–20UN
Sat 11/16Memphis vs UAB-16.0W53–1862.0W53–18OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/28Memphis at Tulane+12.5W34–2454.5W34–24OY
Tue 12/17Memphis vs West Virginia-5.0W42–3760.0W42–37ON
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis #23
+0.570
West Virginia #63
+0.390
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #42
+0.841
West Virginia #65
+0.542
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis #11
0.199
West Virginia #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #14
+9.398
West Virginia #16
+8.644
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis #57
+0.885
West Virginia #69
+0.826
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis #12
67.7
West Virginia #87
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.2
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #11
1.36
West Virginia #56
0.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #65
1.00
West Virginia #105
1.82
Memphis +0.46
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
63.5
West Virginia #1
44.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #4
19.9
West Virginia #85
39.5
Memphis +19.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Memphis
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Memphis
7.4 — 84.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
31–19 (62%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself