Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV
·
Turf
·
60,000 cap
Penn State✈ 136 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Penn State -7.5
O/U 48.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2024 Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Penn State at West Virginia | -7.5W34–12 | 48.0 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Penn State vs Bowling Green | -35.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Penn State vs Kent State | -49.0W56–0 | 58.0 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Penn State vs Illinois | -19.5W21–7 | 48.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Penn State vs UCLA | -30.0W27–11 | 48.0 | W27–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Penn State at USC | -3.5W33–30 | 51.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Penn State at Wisconsin | -6.5W28–13 | 47.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +3.0L13–20 | 47.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Penn State vs Washington | -13.5W35–6 | 48.0 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Penn State at Purdue | -30.0W49–10 | 51.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Penn State at Minnesota | -11.0W26–25 | 45.0 | W26–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Penn State vs Maryland | -26.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Penn State vs Oregon | +3.5L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Penn State vs SMU | -9.0W38–10 | 52.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Penn State vs Boise State | -11.5W31–14 | 54.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Penn State vs Notre Dame | -1.5L24–27 | 45.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | West Virginia vs Penn State | +7.5L12–34 | 48.0 | L12–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | West Virginia vs UAlbany | -38.5W49–14 | 53.5 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | West Virginia at Pittsburgh | -2.5L34–38 | 60.5 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | West Virginia vs Kansas | -1.5W32–28 | 56.0 | W32–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | West Virginia at Oklahoma State | +2.5W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | West Virginia vs Iowa State | +3.0L16–28 | 54.0 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | West Virginia vs Kansas State | +2.5L18–45 | 56.5 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | West Virginia at Arizona | +5.5W31–26 | 51.5 | W31–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | West Virginia at Cincinnati | +5.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | West Virginia vs Baylor | +2.0L35–49 | 60.0 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | West Virginia vs UCF | +3.0W31–21 | 60.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | +2.5L15–52 | 61.5 | L15–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/17 | West Virginia vs Memphis | +5.0L37–42 | 60.0 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Penn State
8.4 — 79.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Penn State won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on West Virginia, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
88–39 (69%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Allen
Yr 1
#1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chad Scott
Yr 2
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓