Kansas at West Virginia Week 4 College Football Matchup Kansas at West Virginia Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Kansas✈ 817 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
28 32
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
30
West Virginia
28
P&R Line Kansas -2
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas West Virginia -1.5 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors West Virginia, while Game Control favors Kansas. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
West Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -1.5
O/U 56.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2024 Schedule
Kansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Kansas vs Lindenwood-48.5W48–362.5W48–3UN
Sat 9/7Kansas at Illinois-4.5L17–2358.5L17–23UN
Fri 9/13Kansas vs UNLV-7.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 9/21Kansas at West Virginia+1.5L28–3256.0L28–32ON
Sat 9/28Kansas vs TCU-1.5L27–3858.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/5Kansas at Arizona State+2.5L31–3550.0L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Kansas vs Houston-4.5W42–1445.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/26Kansas at Kansas State+10.0L27–2956.5L27–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Kansas vs Iowa State+2.5W45–3650.5W45–36OY
Sat 11/16Kansas at BYU+3.0W17–1355.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/23Kansas vs Colorado+2.5W37–2159.0W37–21UY
Sat 11/30Kansas at Baylor-2.5L17–4562.5L17–45UN
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #9
+0.620
West Virginia #63
+0.431
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #17
+0.908
West Virginia #65
+0.561
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #54
0.171
West Virginia #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #11
+9.425
West Virginia #16
+8.428
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #16
+0.929
West Virginia #69
+0.870
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #132
74.7
West Virginia #87
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
West Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #64
0.00
West Virginia #56
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #20
0.50
West Virginia #105
2.00
West Virginia +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
57.7
West Virginia #1
45.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #13
19.8
West Virginia #85
36.7
Kansas +11.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
West Virginia
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kansas
28.3 — 40.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
17–21 (45%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself