Baylor at West Virginia Week 12 College Football Matchup Baylor at West Virginia Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Baylor✈ 1,111 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
49 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Baylor
34
West Virginia
27
P&R Line Baylor -6.5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Baylor -2 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
West Virginia wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Baylor -2
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Baylor · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Baylor Coming off BYE
Baylor 2024 Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.5W45–353.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Baylor at Utah+14.5L12–2352.5L12–23UY
Sat 9/14Baylor vs Air Force-17.5W31–340.5W31–3UY
Sat 9/21Baylor at Colorado+2.5L31–3852.5L31–38ON
Sat 9/28Baylor vs BYU-3.0L28–3447.0L28–34ON
Sat 10/5Baylor at Iowa State+13.0L21–4345.0L21–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Baylor at Texas Tech+4.5W59–3556.0W59–35OY
Sat 10/26Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.0W38–2864.5W38–28OY
Sat 11/2Baylor vs TCU-2.5W37–3464.0W37–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Baylor at West Virginia-2.0W49–3560.0W49–35OY
Sat 11/23Baylor at Houston-7.0W20–1051.0W20–10UY
Sat 11/30Baylor vs Kansas+2.5W45–1762.5W45–17UY
Tue 12/31Baylor vs LSU-3.0L31–4462.5L31–44ON
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Baylor PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Baylor #29
+0.549
West Virginia #63
+0.374
Baylor Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #21
+0.899
West Virginia #65
+0.520
Baylor Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Baylor #83
0.151
West Virginia #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Baylor Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #30
+9.022
West Virginia #16
+8.450
Baylor Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Baylor #23
+0.916
West Virginia #69
+0.819
Baylor Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Baylor #17
68.5
West Virginia #87
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Baylor Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Baylor Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Baylor
3.6
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Baylor
16.6
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Baylor
13.1
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Baylor #45
1.00
West Virginia #56
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #61
1.13
West Virginia #105
1.50
Baylor +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? West Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Baylor #1
46.6
West Virginia #1
47.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #48
34.8
West Virginia #85
35.2
West Virginia +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on West Virginia, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
23–25 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Jake Spavital Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Powledge Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself