Texas State at Texas - 2026 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, TX

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 4.3 (#52)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)

Our Line: Texas -23 (SP+ TEX -14)
Projected Score: TXST: 19 - TEX: 42 (60)
TEX Win prob: 95% | Cover: 56%
TXST Travel: 29 miles

Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (46 - 20)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas State at Texas	+23
Sat 9/12	Texas State vs UTSA	-4
Sat 9/19	Texas State vs North Texas	+0
Sat 9/26	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-25.5
Sat 10/3	Texas State at San Diego State	+7.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15	Texas State vs Colorado State	-15
Sat 10/24	Texas State vs Utah State	-9.5
Sat 10/31	Texas State at Boise State	+4.5
Sat 11/7	Texas State at Oregon State	-10
Sat 11/14	Texas State vs Fresno State	-5
Sat 11/21	Texas State vs Washington State	-6

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Texas's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas vs Texas State	-23
Sat 9/12	Texas vs Ohio State	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Texas vs UTSA	-24.5
Sat 9/26	Texas at Tennessee	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Texas at Oklahoma	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Texas vs Florida	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas vs Ole Miss	-2.5
Sat 10/31	Texas vs Mississippi State	-20.5
Sat 11/7	Texas at Missouri	-1
Sat 11/14	Texas at LSU	-1
Sat 11/21	Texas vs Arkansas	-20
Fri 11/27	Texas at Texas A&M	+4

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#6 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (34)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9
TEX	#66 (.18)	40% (96)	30.5	42% (83)	2.83 (87)	138	39% (100)	251	3.52 (88)	#39 (.1)	39% (44)	20.3	40% (45)	39% (42)	3.77 (75)	69.7	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33
TEX Defense	13	20.3	17	39.4%	3.77	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	39%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18
TEX Offense	13	30.5	38.8	40.5%	3.52	0.7	19	389	138	251	4.2	47%	51%	42%	39%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4
Texas	13	28:29	19	39%	53%	8.3	69.7	0.7	1.8	6.3	3	2	31.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (34)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)
TEX Defense	13	44% (13)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.01 (19)	2.69 (30)	57% (4)	11% (20)	0.84 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)
TEX Offense	13	47% (91)	42% (83)	32.5	138	4.2	17 (88)	.08 (83)	2.83 (87)	63% (116)	10% (95)	0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)
TEX Defense	13	55% (129)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (12)	.2 (52)	1.5 (38)	33% (48)	28% (37)	.22 (38)	7% (38)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)
TEX Offense	13	51% (48)	39% (100)	19.8	32.3	250.7	7.8	12.6	28 (50)	7 (60)	.29 (50)	1.7 (11)	33% (99)	33% (38)	.43 (26)	6% (55)	2.2 (21)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 1.62 #72
Texas State's Offense Rating: 15.44 #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 18.82 #90
2026 Talent Rating: 624.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.7 - 4.3
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 673.75
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 1.62 Texas: 24.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3 Texas: 16.2

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.895 #4
Texas's Offense Rating: 28.78 #4
Texas's Defense Rating: 0.41 #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1122.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #8
Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2 #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 42
Texas State 19

Projected Total Points: 60

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	0	0	0 Overs
Texas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#72) TXST at (#4) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#72	#4
SP+SP+	#65	#17
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#91	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#8

Texas State Notes(3/1) Vibes: Off should be great, can Def improve?
(3/1) New DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, awful LY)?
(3/1) QB Brad Jackson back, was good LY, very mobile
(3/1) RB Burrell back, but depth behind him has 0 car
(3/1) WR Sparks + Dawn both 1K LY, top G5 duo?
(3/1) OL has 2 starters, 3 portals and lots of ? beyond
(3/1) DL 6 portals, not much returns, not sure here
(3/1) DB 6 w starting exp, 6 portals, best Def unit
(3/1) LY won last 3 to bowl, Def awful in 5 gm L streak
Texas State Injury Report

Texas Notes(2/17) Vibes: Biggest expectations of UT since 2005
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/2) OL bad LY, 3 Portal starters added. Good exp
(1/29) LB Biles + Simmons both top 10 pass rusher LY
(1/29) CB duo looks great, McDonald @ S underrated
(1/28) RBs much better w R Brown & H Smothers added
(1/28) Def has a great F7, DL is big, good & exp'd
(1/28) Firing DC Kwiatkowski for Muschamp is a choice
(1/28) QB Manning improved LY, can he jump to elite?
(1/28) WRs Coleman & Wingo w/ depth. Best in CFB?
Texas Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#24	#44
ExplosiveExp	#16	#28
PPAPPA	#6	#39
PowerPwr	#47	#7
SP+SP+	#15	#18
Pts POPPO	#21	#75
HavocHav	#15	#24

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#45
Run ExplRExp	#10	#13
PPAExp	#7	#19
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#33
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#38
PPAExp	#17	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#42	#20
DB HavocDB	#10	#38

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#96	#61
ExplosiveExp	#14	#110
PPAPPA	#66	#76
PowerPwr	#4	#90
SP+SP+	#30	#117
Pts POPPO	#88	#98
HavocHav	#76	#67

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#48
Run ExplRExp	#79	#110
PPAExp	#83	#58
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#87	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#10
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#97
PPAExp	#50	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#95	#25
DB HavocDB	#55	#114

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	10	19	53%	141	1	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell	100	671	3	6.7	61
Beau Sparks	6	74	1	12.3	49
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	7	1	0	0.1	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45
Greg Burrell	13	125	0	9.6	23

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2
Ayden Jones	52	1	2	0
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Cole Nilles	27	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donterry Russell	18	6	4	0	1
Chancellor Owens (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Tice Williams	5	1	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)	18	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	248	404	61%	3163	26	7	7.8
MJ Morris (Tr)	35	60	58%	304	1	4	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raleek Brown (Tr)	186	1141	4	6.1	88
Daylan Smothers	160	939	6	5.9	65
Arch Manning	92	399	10	4.3	60
James Simon	29	122	0	4.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	54	834	7	15.4	75
Cam Coleman (Tr)	57	725	5	12.7	46
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)	30	416	2	13.9	51
Emmett Mosley V	28	408	3	14.6	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Will Muschamp (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Jelani McDonald	80	4	0	1	3
Ty'Anthony Smith	59	6	1	1	1
Bo Mascoe (Tr)	48	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	43	16	12	15	2
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Brad Spence	21	6	3	2	0
Lance Jackson	16	2	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Graceson Littleton	46	3	0	0	6
Kade Phillips	22	2	0	0	6
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4