Florida at Texas - 2026 Matchup Preview
Florida logo

Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns

Texas logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, TX  (SEC)

 
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#70)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
FLA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas -15.5  (SP+ TEX -13)
Projected Score: FLA: 17 - TEX: 32 (49)
TEX Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FLA Travel: 921 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (46 - 20)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20
Sat 9/12 Florida vs Campbell-33
Sat 9/19 Florida at Auburn+8
Sat 9/26 Florida vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 10/3 Florida at Missouri+12
Sat 10/10 Florida vs South Carolina-3
Sat 10/17 Florida at Texas+15.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida at Georgia+20
Sat 11/7 Florida vs Oklahoma+10.5
Sat 11/14 Florida at Kentucky-3
Sat 11/21 Florida vs Vanderbilt+4
Fri 11/27 Florida at Florida State+1

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Texas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas vs Texas State-23
Sat 9/12 Texas vs Ohio State+4.5
Sat 9/19 Texas vs UTSA-24.5
Sat 9/26 Texas at Tennessee-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Texas at Oklahoma+2.5
Sat 10/17 Texas vs Florida-15.5
Sat 10/24 Texas vs Ole Miss-2.5
Sat 10/31 Texas vs Mississippi State-20.5
Sat 11/7 Texas at Missouri-1
Sat 11/14 Texas at LSU-1
Sat 11/21 Texas vs Arkansas-20
Fri 11/27 Texas at Texas A&M+4

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#87 (.14)42% (83)21.647% (36)3.26 (18)13738% (112)2054 (41)#84 (.18)43% (90)2443% (71)44% (109)3.46 (53)43.71.51.4
TEX#66 (.18)40% (96)30.542% (83)2.83 (87)13839% (100)2513.52 (88)#39 (.1)39% (44)20.340% (45)39% (42)3.77 (75)69.70.71.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1221.61341.6%41.5193411372054.347%52%47%38%15%.14
TEX Defense1320.31739.4%3.771.8 - - - - - 44%55%40%39%18%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense122430.443.3%3.461.4 - - - - - 53%45%43%44%15%.18
TEX Offense1330.538.840.5%3.520.7193891382514.247%51%42%39%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1229:461934%42%5.143.71.51.452.1027.7
Texas1328:291939%53%8.369.70.71.86.33231.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1247% (87)47% (36)32136.84.310 (122).14 (55)3.26 (18)76% (42)10% (74)0.8 (129)
TEX Defense1344% (13)40% (45) - - - - .01 (19)2.69 (30)57% (4)11% (20)0.84 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1253% (106)43% (71) - - - - .08 (57)2.79 (50)79% (115)9% (86)0.93 (52)
TEX Offense1347% (91)42% (83)32.51384.217 (88).08 (83)2.83 (87)63% (116)10% (95)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (41)38% (112)19.531.2204.66.610.518 (61)14 (127).17 (110)1.5 (82)30% (42)27% (103).24 (93)6% (55)1.9 (97)
TEX Defense1355% (129)39% (42) - - - - - - 16 (12).2 (52)1.5 (38)33% (48)28% (37).22 (38)7% (38)1.8 (21)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1245% (27)44% (109) - - - - - - 10 (38).3 (94)1.6 (86)31% (86)28% (48).3 (72)5% (90)2.3 (131)
TEX Offense1351% (48)39% (100)19.832.3250.77.812.628 (50)7 (60).29 (50)1.7 (11)33% (99)33% (38).43 (26)6% (55)2.2 (21)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.34  #22
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.84  #30
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.50  #21
2026 Talent Rating: 960.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 50%  #10
Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 15.34   Texas: 24.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 3.5   Texas: 16.2




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.895  #4
Texas's Offense Rating: 28.78  #4
Texas's Defense Rating: 0.41  #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1122.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 59  #8
Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 32
Florida 17

Projected Total Points: 49
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Florida29Texas21Texas -4.5Florida42.5Over
202411/09Texas49Florida17Texas -24.5Texas48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas112 Overs
Florida110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#22) FLA at (#4) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLATEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #22 #4
SP+SP+ #63 #17
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #20 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #8
Florida Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Excited for Sumrall era, Faulkner offense
(1/29) New staff under Sumrall. Good OC/DC combo
(1/29) Added 15 portals on Offense, 8 on Defense
(1/29) QB Philo worked w OC Faulkner at GT. Very green
(1/29) RB Baugh one of CFBs best. Great depth w portals
(1/29) WR good w Singleton (GT). Some real talent here
(1/29) OL 1 back, 3 portal starters. Pass Block looks ?
(1/29) DL loaded w exp & production. Looks really good
(1/29) S looks good, CBs exp'd but Cov grades not great
Florida Injury Report
Texas Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Biggest expectations of UT since 2005
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/2) OL bad LY, 3 Portal starters added. Good exp
(1/29) LB Biles + Simmons both top 10 pass rusher LY
(1/29) CB duo looks great, McDonald @ S underrated
(1/28) RBs much better w R Brown & H Smothers added
(1/28) Def has a great F7, DL is big, good & exp'd
(1/28) Firing DC Kwiatkowski for Muschamp is a choice
(1/28) QB Manning improved LY, can he jump to elite?
(1/28) WRs Coleman & Wingo w/ depth. Best in CFB?
Texas Injury Report
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #83 #44
ExplosiveExp #130 #28
PPAPPA #87 #39
PowerPwr #30 #7
SP+SP+ #89 #18
Pts POPPO #41 #75
HavocHav #61 #24
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #36 #45
Run ExplRExp #129 #13
PPAExp #55 #19
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #18 #30
Stuff RateStuff #22 #33
TackleTak - NR
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #112 #42
Pass ExplPExl #82 #38
PPAExp #110 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #20
DB HavocDB #55 #38
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffFLA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #96 #90
ExplosiveExp #14 #68
PPAPPA #66 #84
PowerPwr #4 #21
SP+SP+ #30 #43
Pts POPPO #88 #53
HavocHav #76 #98
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffFLA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #71
Run ExplRExp #79 #52
PPAExp #83 #57
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #87 #50
Stuff RateStuff #120 #91
TackleTak - NR
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffFLA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #109
Pass ExplPExl #11 #86
PPAExp #50 #94
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #86
DB HavocDB #55 #90
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida beat Texas last year (29-21)
Texas beat Florida in 2024 (49-17)

  
FLA's OC Buster Faulkner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Aaron Philo (Tr)212875%3731113.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
London Montgomery (Tr)15674274.851
Evan Pryor (Tr)7652236.946
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)146104.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)5853439.248
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
Micah Mays Jr. (Tr)18302216.852
Evan Chieca (Tr)3125548.234

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Brad White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Aaron Chiles523111
Jaden Robinson514243
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett404310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Myles Graham767274

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
MJ Morris (Tr)356058%304145.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown (Tr)186114146.188
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Arch Manning92399104.360
James Simon2912204.216
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
Cam Coleman (Tr)57725512.746
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)30416213.951
Emmett Mosley V28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Will Muschamp (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544
Jelani McDonald804013
Ty'Anthony Smith596111
Bo Mascoe (Tr)482004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544
Brad Spence216320
Lance Jackson162240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Graceson Littleton463006
Kade Phillips222006
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544