Ohio State at Texas - 2026 Matchup Preview

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, TX

Buckeyes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (82 - 12)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (31 - 8 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)

TEX 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ohio State -4.5 (SP+ OSU -14)
Projected Score: OSU: 26 - TEX: 21 (47)
OSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
OSU Travel: 1066 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (46 - 20)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
OSU Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Ohio State vs Ball State	-53.5
Sat 9/12	Ohio State at Texas	-4.5
Sat 9/19	Ohio State vs Kent State	-49
Sat 9/26	Ohio State vs Illinois	-19
Sat 10/3	Ohio State at Iowa	-10.5
Sat 10/10	Ohio State vs Maryland	-30
Sat 10/17	Ohio State at Indiana	+2.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Ohio State at USC	-6.5
Sat 11/7	Ohio State vs Oregon	-5
Sat 11/14	Ohio State vs Northwestern	-28.5
Sat 11/21	Ohio State at Nebraska	-21
Sat 11/28	Ohio State vs Michigan	-13

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Texas's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas vs Texas State	-23
Sat 9/12	Texas vs Ohio State	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Texas vs UTSA	-24.5
Sat 9/26	Texas at Tennessee	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Texas at Oklahoma	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Texas vs Florida	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas vs Ole Miss	-2.5
Sat 10/31	Texas vs Mississippi State	-20.5
Sat 11/7	Texas at Missouri	-1
Sat 11/14	Texas at LSU	-1
Sat 11/21	Texas vs Arkansas	-20
Fri 11/27	Texas at Texas A&M	+4

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#10 (.31)	52% (2)	33.4	45% (47)	2.99 (61)	155	58% (1)	268	4.83 (5)	#3 (-.02)	34% (6)	9.3	31% (3)	38% (32)	2.64 (8)	38.5	0.8	1
TEX	#66 (.18)	40% (96)	30.5	42% (83)	2.83 (87)	138	39% (100)	251	3.52 (88)	#39 (.1)	39% (44)	20.3	40% (45)	39% (42)	3.77 (75)	69.7	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Offense	14	33.4	30.6	51.7%	4.83	0.8	23	423	155	268	4.6	48%	51%	45%	58%	11%	.31
TEX Defense	13	20.3	17	39.4%	3.77	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	39%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Defense	14	9.3	8.2	34.4%	2.64	1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	31%	38%	16%	-.02
TEX Offense	13	30.5	38.8	40.5%	3.52	0.7	19	389	138	251	4.2	47%	51%	42%	39%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio State	14	33:00	22.6	53%	67%	4.1	38.5	0.8	1	5.6	2.5	1	29
Texas	13	28:29	19	39%	53%	8.3	69.7	0.7	1.8	6.3	3	2	31.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Offense	14	48% (80)	45% (47)	33.6	154.8	4.6	25 (60)	.08 (89)	2.99 (61)	73% (61)	7% (14)	0.78 (133)
TEX Defense	13	44% (13)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.01 (19)	2.69 (30)	57% (4)	11% (20)	0.84 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Defense	14	48% (50)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (4)	2.5 (10)	59% (9)	11% (17)	0.82 (7)
TEX Offense	13	47% (91)	42% (83)	32.5	138	4.2	17 (88)	.08 (83)	2.83 (87)	63% (116)	10% (95)	0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Offense	14	51% (54)	58% (1)	22.4	29.1	268.2	9.2	12	33 (22)	8 (20)	.54 (3)	1.4 (117)	24% (2)	39% (7)	.5 (12)	4% (17)	1.9 (90)
TEX Defense	13	55% (129)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (12)	.2 (52)	1.5 (38)	33% (48)	28% (37)	.22 (38)	7% (38)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Defense	14	50% (89)	38% (32)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.05 (5)	1.2 (1)	36% (12)	23% (5)	.08 (5)	5% (108)	1.7 (7)
TEX Offense	13	51% (48)	39% (100)	19.8	32.3	250.7	7.8	12.6	28 (50)	7 (60)	.29 (50)	1.7 (11)	33% (99)	33% (38)	.43 (26)	6% (55)	2.2 (21)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 29.17 #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 32.14 #2
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -4.12 #1
2026 Talent Rating: 1078.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 68% #1
Ohio State's 2026 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 30.1 #2
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #13
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.7 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 29.17 Texas: 24.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 30.1 Texas: 16.2

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.895 #4
Texas's Offense Rating: 28.78 #4
Texas's Defense Rating: 0.41 #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1122.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #8
Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2 #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.2

Ohio State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 26
Texas 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Ohio State	14	Texas	7	Ohio State -1.5	Ohio State	46.5	Under
2024	01/10	Texas	14	Ohio State	28	Ohio State -6.5	Ohio State	51.5	Under
2008	01/05	Texas	24	Ohio State	21
2006	09/09	Texas	7	Ohio State	24
2005	09/10	Ohio State	22	Texas	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	2	0	0 Overs
Ohio State	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#2) OSU at (#4) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OSU	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#2	#4
SP+SP+	#2	#17
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#6	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#1	#8

Ohio State Notes(2/15) Vibes: High, although expectations are extreme
(2/26) Day wants more tempo, is that OC Smith’s style?
(2/15) DBs great S adds (Moore, Little). CB could be ?
(2/15) 10 portal adds were starters (8 from P4)
(2/7) Shocking that OSU has not won B1G since '20
(2/6) QB Sayin back, most accurate QB in CFB, depth?
(1/29) New OC Smith (Steelers/Atl HC). More NFL guys?
(1/29) RB Jackson a revelation LY. Have depth + portal
(1/29) WR Smith best in CFB + Inniss, 2 good Portal adds
(1/29) OL has 4 starters back, lots of talented options
(1/29) DL big boost w/ Jackson & Atkinson back. Deep
(1/29) DT has depth + 2 portal starters. Have options
Ohio State Injury Report

Texas Notes(2/17) Vibes: Biggest expectations of UT since 2005
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/2) OL bad LY, 3 Portal starters added. Good exp
(1/29) LB Biles + Simmons both top 10 pass rusher LY
(1/29) CB duo looks great, McDonald @ S underrated
(1/28) RBs much better w R Brown & H Smothers added
(1/28) Def has a great F7, DL is big, good & exp'd
(1/28) Firing DC Kwiatkowski for Muschamp is a choice
(1/28) QB Manning improved LY, can he jump to elite?
(1/28) WRs Coleman & Wingo w/ depth. Best in CFB?
Texas Injury Report

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#2	#44
ExplosiveExp	#124	#28
PPAPPA	#10	#39
PowerPwr	#2	#7
SP+SP+	#13	#18
Pts POPPO	#5	#75
HavocHav	#6	#24

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#45
Run ExplRExp	#133	#13
PPAExp	#89	#19
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#33
TackleTak	-	NR

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#117	#38
PPAExp	#3	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#14	#20
DB HavocDB	#17	#38

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#96	#6
ExplosiveExp	#14	#2
PPAPPA	#66	#3
PowerPwr	#4	#1
SP+SP+	#30	#1
Pts POPPO	#88	#8
HavocHav	#76	#57

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#3
Run ExplRExp	#79	#7
PPAExp	#83	#4
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#87	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#14
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#32
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#1
PPAExp	#50	#5
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#95	#17
DB HavocDB	#55	#108

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'26 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Texas last year (14-7)
Ohio State beat Texas in 2024 (28-14)

OSU's OC Arthur Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	301	391	77%	3610	32	8	9.2
Tavien St. Clair	0	2	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	179	1090	6	6.1	64
Isaiah West	59	310	2	5.3	38
Ja'Kobi Jackson (Tr)	27	98	0	3.6	27
Jeremiah Smith	3	21	1	7.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	87	1243	12	14.3	87
Devin Mccuin (Tr)	65	726	8	11.2	52
Kyle Parker (Tr)	31	330	4	10.6	43
Hunter Welcing (Tr)	28	296	2	10.6	36

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Earl Little II	76	2	0	2
Jaylen McClain	53	0	0	3
Christian Alliegro (Tr)	48	8	4	1
Payton Pierce	44	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenyatta Jackson	28	11	7	2	2
Christian Alliegro (Tr)	48	8	4	0	1
Eddrick Houston	21	4	3	1	0
James Smith (Tr)	26	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Dominick Kelly (Tr)	3	0	3
Jaylen McClain	53	0	3
Earl Little II	76	2	2

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	248	404	61%	3163	26	7	7.8
MJ Morris (Tr)	35	60	58%	304	1	4	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raleek Brown (Tr)	186	1141	4	6.1	88
Daylan Smothers	160	939	6	5.9	65
Arch Manning	92	399	10	4.3	60
James Simon	29	122	0	4.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	54	834	7	15.4	75
Cam Coleman (Tr)	57	725	5	12.7	46
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)	30	416	2	13.9	51
Emmett Mosley V	28	408	3	14.6	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Will Muschamp (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Jelani McDonald	80	4	0	1	3
Ty'Anthony Smith	59	6	1	1	1
Bo Mascoe (Tr)	48	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	43	16	12	15	2
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Brad Spence	21	6	3	2	0
Lance Jackson	16	2	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Graceson Littleton	46	3	0	0	6
Kade Phillips	22	2	0	0	6
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4