Texas at Tennessee - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Neyland Stadium - Knoxville, TN  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (46 - 20)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
TENN 2nd straight Home Game
TENN is playing their 4th straight game
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -1.5  (SP+ TEX -1)
Projected Score: TEX: 30 - TENN: 29 (59)
TEX Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TEX Travel: 889 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (42 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#24)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas vs Texas State-23
Sat 9/12 Texas vs Ohio State+4.5
Sat 9/19 Texas vs UTSA-24.5
Sat 9/26 Texas at Tennessee-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Texas at Oklahoma+2.5
Sat 10/17 Texas vs Florida-15.5
Sat 10/24 Texas vs Ole Miss-2.5
Sat 10/31 Texas vs Mississippi State-20.5
Sat 11/7 Texas at Missouri-1
Sat 11/14 Texas at LSU-1
Sat 11/21 Texas vs Arkansas-20
Fri 11/27 Texas at Texas A&M+4

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Tennessee's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Tennessee vs Furman-42
Sat 9/12 Tennessee at Georgia Tech-7
Sat 9/19 Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-27.5
Sat 9/26 Tennessee vs Texas+1.5
Sat 10/3 Tennessee vs Auburn-6
Sat 10/10 Tennessee at Arkansas-11
Sat 10/17 Tennessee vs Alabama-2
Sat 10/24 Tennessee at South Carolina-7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Tennessee vs Kentucky-17
Sat 11/14 Tennessee at Texas A&M+8
Sat 11/21 Tennessee vs LSU-2
Sat 11/28 Tennessee at Vanderbilt+0

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#66 (.18)40% (96)30.542% (83)2.83 (87)13839% (100)2513.52 (88)#39 (.1)39% (44)20.340% (45)39% (42)3.77 (75)69.70.71.8
TENN#5 (.33)51% (5)39.852% (3)3.1 (40)17650% (9)2934.69 (9)#69 (.16)44% (107)28.848% (123)41% (67)4.09 (109)54.81.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense1330.519.840.5%3.520.7193891382514.247%51%42%39%16%.18
TENN Defense1328.82944.5%4.091.5 - - - - - 50%49%48%41%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1320.325.839.4%3.771.8 - - - - - 44%55%40%39%18%.1
TENN Offense1339.842.350.6%4.691.2254691762934.750%48%52%50%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1328:291939%53%8.369.70.71.86.33231.3
Tennessee1327:2225.250%76%6.254.81.21.56.62.7428.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1347% (91)42% (83)32.51384.217 (88).08 (83)2.83 (87)63% (116)10% (95)0.94 (79)
TENN Defense1350% (72)48% (123) - - - - .12 (79)2.89 (73)82% (126)12% (16)0.85 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1344% (13)40% (45) - - - - .01 (19)2.69 (30)57% (4)11% (20)0.84 (13)
TENN Offense1350% (65)52% (3)37.8176.24.735 (16).26 (9)3.1 (40)85% (2)8% (23)0.96 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1351% (48)39% (100)19.832.3250.77.812.628 (50)7 (60).29 (50)1.7 (11)33% (99)33% (38).43 (26)6% (55)2.2 (21)
TENN Defense1349% (78)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (75).22 (58)1.5 (54)31% (78)28% (45).26 (58)7% (32)2.1 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1355% (129)39% (42) - - - - - - 16 (12).2 (52)1.5 (38)33% (48)28% (37).22 (38)7% (38)1.8 (21)
TENN Offense1348% (74)50% (9)22.533.6292.88.71326 (14)10 (88).41 (19)1.6 (57)26% (10)34% (24).47 (16)5% (28)2.2 (10)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 28.59  #4
Texas's Offense Rating: 28.78  #4
Texas's Defense Rating: 0.41  #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1122.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 59%  #8
Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 28.59   Tennessee: 21.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 16.2   Tennessee: 15.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.015  #17
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 25.09  #8
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 8.06  #22
2026 Talent Rating: 1010.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 42  #13
Tennessee's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Tennessee's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #63

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 30
Tennessee 29

Projected Total Points: 59
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Tennessee's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee000 Overs
Texas000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#4) TEX at (#17) TENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTEXTENN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #4 #17
SP+SP+ #17 #19
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #5 #12
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #13
Texas Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Biggest expectations of UT since 2005
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/2) OL bad LY, 3 Portal starters added. Good exp
(1/29) LB Biles + Simmons both top 10 pass rusher LY
(1/29) CB duo looks great, McDonald @ S underrated
(1/28) RBs much better w R Brown & H Smothers added
(1/28) Def has a great F7, DL is big, good & exp'd
(1/28) Firing DC Kwiatkowski for Muschamp is a choice
(1/28) QB Manning improved LY, can he jump to elite?
(1/28) WRs Coleman & Wingo w/ depth. Best in CFB?
Texas Injury Report
Tennessee Notes
(2/17) Vibes: High w QB back, '26 could be magical
(2/11) Hired strength coach from Indiana
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/4) QB set if Aguilar is back, depth is talented/no exp
(2/2) Did not beat team w winning record LY.
(1/28) Def loaded, F7 looks great, best LB's in CFB?
(1/28) New DC Knowles (PSU) + 4 PSU Def Portals
(1/28) WR loaded w/ Matthews & Staley. David solid TE
(1/28) OL looks really good, Vols lines look tough
(1/28) RB Bishop is top 10 back, have depth as well
(1/28) Big crootin class, could help fill gaps early
Tennessee Injury Report
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffTENN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #96 #107
ExplosiveExp #14 #13
PPAPPA #66 #69
PowerPwr #4 #22
SP+SP+ #30 #63
Pts POPPO #88 #109
HavocHav #76 #19
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffTENN Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #123
Run ExplRExp #79 #15
PPAExp #83 #79
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #87 #73
Stuff RateStuff #120 #47
TackleTak - NR
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffTENN Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #67
Pass ExplPExl #11 #54
PPAExp #50 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #16
DB HavocDB #55 #32
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffTEX Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #5 #44
ExplosiveExp #51 #28
PPAPPA #5 #39
PowerPwr #8 #7
SP+SP+ #7 #18
Pts POPPO #9 #75
HavocHav #18 #24
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffTEX Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #45
Run ExplRExp #72 #13
PPAExp #9 #19
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #40 #30
Stuff RateStuff #12 #33
TackleTak - NR
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffTEX Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #42
Pass ExplPExl #57 #38
PPAExp #19 #52
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #20
DB HavocDB #28 #38
Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
MJ Morris (Tr)356058%304145.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown (Tr)186114146.188
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Arch Manning92399104.360
James Simon2912204.216
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
Cam Coleman (Tr)57725512.746
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)30416213.951
Emmett Mosley V28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Will Muschamp (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544
Jelani McDonald804013
Ty'Anthony Smith596111
Bo Mascoe (Tr)482004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544
Brad Spence216320
Lance Jackson162240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Graceson Littleton463006
Kade Phillips222006
Rasheem Biles (Tr)10017544

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Staub (Tr)305555%426347.7
George MacIntyre7978%69007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop1821076165.950
Javin Gordon (Tr)12851654.025
Daune Morris3513313.819
Justin Baker144303.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braylon Staley68837612.373
Mike Matthews53813415.362
Ian Duarte (Tr)46521311.3N/A
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Edwin Spillman814332
Jeremiah Telander806120
Edrees Farooq760003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Norman (Tr)278620
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Daevin Hobbs304322
Edwin Spillman814332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond4310011
DJ Burks (Tr)732005
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004