Massachusetts at Ohio - 2025 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Ohio -34.5 (53.5) (-100000) Open: -31.5 | 51.5
Ohio 42 - Massachusetts: 14 (Mid-American)

Minutemen (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#136)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Rain Predicted
Our Line: Ohio -30.5 (SP+ OHIO -33)
Projected Score: UMASS: 11 - OHIO: 42 (53)
OHIO Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
UMASS Travel: 542 miles

Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Massachusetts vs Temple	+3.0	51.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Massachusetts vs Bryant	-14.5	52.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/13	Massachusetts at Iowa	+35.5	44.5	L 7 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Massachusetts at Missouri	+44.5	57.5	L 6 - 42	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Massachusetts vs Western Michigan	+12.5	46.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/11	Massachusetts at Kent State	+1.5	49.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/18	Massachusetts vs Buffalo	+16.5	47.5	L 21 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Massachusetts at Central Michigan	+16.5	46.5	L 13 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Massachusetts at Akron	+12.5	51.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Wed 11/12	Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois	+8.5	43.5	L 3 - 45	O	N
Tue 11/18	Massachusetts at Ohio	+34.5	53.5	L 14 - 42	O	Y
Tue 11/25	Massachusetts vs Bowling Green	+14.0	44.5	L 14 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 7

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1.5	46.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-34.5	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	N
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	-7.0	44.5	W 31 - 26	O	N
Tue 12/23	Ohio vs UNLV	+6.5	64.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#135 (-.01)	34% (134)	11.1	33% (136)	2.05 (136)	82	34% (129)	165	2.17 (136)	#132 (.28)	48% (130)	38.6	49% (129)	48% (129)	4.64 (134)	41.4	1.3	0.8
OHIO	#42 (.21)	45% (42)	27.8	45% (57)	3.32 (15)	212	46% (30)	173	3.55 (82)	#55 (.12)	41% (62)	21.9	42% (68)	40% (56)	2.83 (13)	44.5	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	33.7%	2.17	1.3	16	248	82	165	2.8	45%	54%	33%	34%	20%	-.01
OHIO Defense	13	21.9	20	41.3%	2.83	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	42%	40%	15%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	48%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	49%	48%	9%	.28
OHIO Offense	13	27.8	36.3	44.9%	3.55	1.2	20	385	212	173	5.4	60%	38%	45%	46%	12%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	26:56	15.5	31%	23%	5.2	41.4	1.3	0.8	3.3	1.1	1	25.9
Ohio	13	29:39	20.2	43%	57%	5.8	44.5	1.2	1.2	4.4	1.5	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	45% (108)	33% (136)	29.3	82.4	2.8	6 (122)	-.03 (129)	2.05 (136)	60% (127)	13% (127)	1.12 (12)
OHIO Defense	13	50% (75)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	.08 (57)	2.98 (89)	67% (33)	9% (83)	0.99 (91)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	55% (126)	49% (129)	-	-	-	-	.2 (121)	3.53 (136)	77% (106)	6% (136)	0.84 (15)
OHIO Offense	13	60% (11)	45% (57)	39.2	212.2	5.4	30 (26)	.21 (27)	3.32 (15)	79% (25)	7% (18)	1.1 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	54% (26)	34% (129)	18.6	34.6	165.1	4.8	8.9	8 (134)	9 (88)	.02 (132)	1.3 (135)	38% (135)	25% (118)	.14 (125)	7% (110)	2 (74)
OHIO Defense	13	48% (63)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (31)	.21 (54)	1.6 (88)	31% (73)	28% (42)	.2 (30)	6% (76)	2 (57)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	43% (12)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (75)	.41 (128)	1.6 (102)	26% (134)	33% (107)	.42 (121)	3% (136)	2 (77)
OHIO Offense	13	38% (127)	46% (30)	13.9	22.8	173.2	7.6	12.4	14 (86)	10 (60)	.27 (60)	1.4 (118)	29% (31)	33% (36)	.24 (95)	5% (33)	1.6 (135)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -23.52 #136
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: -1.23 #134
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 22.29 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Massachusetts's 2025 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Massachusetts's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.2 #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 8.0 #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.6 #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -23.52 Ohio: 0.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -36.2 Ohio: -2.9

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: 0.45 #73
Ohio's Offense Rating: 6.67 #82
Ohio's Defense Rating: 7.87 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #82
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #88
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #67

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 42
Massachusetts 11

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio 36
Massachusetts 16

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 36
Massachusetts 16

Total Points: 52

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/18	Ohio	42	Massachusetts	14	Ohio -34.5	Massachusetts	53.5	Over
2018	09/29	Ohio	58	Massachusetts	42	Ohio -11.5	Ohio	70.0	Over
2017	09/30	Massachusetts	50	Ohio	58	Ohio -4.5	Ohio	53.0	Over
2013	11/29	Ohio	51	Massachusetts	23	Ohio -14	Ohio	0
2012	09/29	Massachusetts	34	Ohio	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	5	3	3 Overs
Massachusetts	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 2

(#136) UMASS at (#73) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	OHIO
Power RatePwr	#136	#73
SP+SP+	#136	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#79
OffenseOff	#136	#52
DefenseDef	#129	#82
Spec TeamsST	#120	#126
TalentTal	#109	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Massachusetts Notes(11/4) Killed by Akron, 169 total yds, 3 TOs. Worst FBS
(10/31) Worst program in CFB, but fair everyone is hurt
(10/31) UMass disgrace to MAC, should drop to FCS
(10/30) Only competitive in 2 games & 1 was L to Bryant
(10/24) 13 starters from Week 1 are out now.
(10/15) Have not scored 7+ points in any game over a month
(10/12) Blown out by Kent? UMass is worst team in CFB
(10/12) There is nothing here to like or fear. Mid FCS at best
(9/25) DBs are extremely banged up, moving CB to S
(9/25) 17 pts vs 2 FBS teams, 0 in the 2nd half
(9/25) QB1 B Rose is out, Hairston & Jordan playing
(8/30) Killed by Temple? Barely 300 yds, gave up 450+
Massachusetts Injury Report

Ohio Notes(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	OHIO Def
Perf GradePerf	#136	#82
SuccessSuc	#134	#62
ExplosiveExp	#80	#76
PPAPPA	#135	#55
PowerPwr	#134	#68
SP+SP+	#136	#67
Pts POPPO	#136	#13
HavocHav	#131	#84

Massachusetts Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#134	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#136	#68
Run ExplRExp	#12	#91
PPAExp	#129	#57
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#136	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#136	#73
TackleTak	-	#97

Massachusetts Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#135	#88
PPAExp	#132	#54
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#72
F7 HavocF7	#127	#83
DB HavocDB	#110	#76

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	UMASS Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#129
SuccessSuc	#42	#130
ExplosiveExp	#84	#22
PPAPPA	#42	#132
PowerPwr	#82	#134
SP+SP+	#88	#136
Pts POPPO	#82	#134
HavocHav	#17	#136

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#60	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#129
Run ExplRExp	#18	#15
PPAExp	#27	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#136
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#136
TackleTak	-	#96

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#30	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#102
PPAExp	#60	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#38
F7 HavocF7	#18	#136
DB HavocDB	#33	#136

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 41° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.004

Rematch from Week 13
Ohio -34.5 (53.5)
Ohio won vs Massachusetts this year (42-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UMASS's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Hairston	107	216	50%	957	4	4	4.4
Grant Jordan (Tr)	63	110	57%	595	3	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brandon Hood (Tr)	98	368	2	3.8	90
Rocko Griffin (Tr)	53	245	2	4.6	43
Elijah Faulkner	40	114	0	2.9	14
Juwuan Price	26	101	0	3.9	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquon Gibson	63	616	0	9.8	50
Donnie Gray (Tr)	27	260	0	9.6	41
Max Dowling (Tr)	20	199	3	10.0	77
Jake McConnachie (Tr)	16	144	0	9.0	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martin	97	3	0	0	2
Derrieon Craig	78	1	1	1	2
Zeraun Daniel (Tr)	75	3	0	0	2
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)	69	4	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques White	43	11	5	3	1
David Onuoha (Tr)	42	5	3	2	0
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)	69	4	2	2	2
Tim Grant-Randall	27	3	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martin	97	3	0	0	2
Zeraun Daniel (Tr)	75	3	0	0	2
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)	69	4	2	2	2

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	188	303	62%	2375	14	11	7.8
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	240	1392	15	5.8	49
Parker Navarro	161	886	9	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	120	585	8	4.9	66
Jake Bruno	1	48	0	48.0	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	71	1037	7	14.6	67
Rodney Harris II	30	419	2	14.0	49
Mason Williams	27	285	3	10.6	30
Caleb Gossett	12	162	0	13.5	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson	86	7	0	2	1
Adonis Williams Jr.	75	4	1	1	1
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Derek Reagans	8	2	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	49	0	0	0	8
Jack Fries	54	3	1	1	5
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4