Ohio at Ball State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ohio logo Ohio Bobcats at Ball State CardinalsBall State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio -14 (52.5) (-600)  Open: -17.5
Ball State 20 - Ohio: 14  (Mid-American)

 
Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
BALL coming off BYE
OHIO is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -14.5  (SP+ OHIO -19)

Projected Score: OHIO: 32 - BALL: 18 (50)
OHIO Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
OHIO Travel: 186 miles
Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Ohio at Rutgers+11.546.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/6 Ohio vs West Virginia+3.558.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/13 Ohio at Ohio State+28.049.0L 9 - 37UY
Sat 9/20 Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.555.0W 52 - 35ON
Sat 9/27 Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.549.5W 35 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Ohio at Ball State-14.052.5L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.541.5W 48 - 21OY
Sat 10/25 Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.560.5W 28 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.550.5W 24 - 20UY
Tue 11/11 Ohio at Western Michigan+1.546.5L 13 - 17UN
Tue 11/18 Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.553.5W 42 - 14ON
Fri 11/28 Ohio at Buffalo-7.044.5W 31 - 26ON
Tue 12/23 Ohio vs UNLV+6.564.5W 17 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+2.544.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.541.5L 7 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-3.048.5W 17 - 13UY
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2.548.5L 9 - 24UN
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+29.545.5L 9 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.540.5L 24 - 45ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#40 (.24)46% (30)27.847% (35)3.1 (52)21445% (35)1934.15 (47)#23 (.1)37% (10)21.934% (3)40% (57)3.79 (68)44.91.61.5
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)15.844% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)29.846% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Offense1427.82145.8%4.151.6224062141935.259%41%47%45%14%.24
BALL Defense1229.821.646.5%4.811.3 - - - - - 47%52%46%47%13%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Defense1421.925.836.9%3.791.5 - - - - - 45%54%34%40%20%.1
BALL Offense1215.824.442.1%3.941.2203481032453.442%58%44%41%19%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio1432:4321.948%60%5.544.91.61.56.32.5327.9
Ball State1230:5820.342%46%4.945.31.21.34.61.7230.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense1459% (13)47% (35)40.7213.55.235 (8).24 (18)3.1 (52)78% (31)9% (52)1.12 (13)
BALL Defense1247% (34)46% (103) - - - - .22 (116)3.17 (90)74% (72)9% (103)1.08 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense1445% (15)34% (3) - - - - -.03 (6)2.49 (8)74% (69)13% (13)1 (72)
BALL Offense1242% (120)44% (70)30.8103.43.410 (122).1 (91)3.06 (61)80% (23)11% (99)0.87 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense1441% (119)45% (35)15.524.7192.57.812.415 (98)12 (85).23 (80)1.4 (128)29% (32)37% (13).45 (23)5% (43)1.8 (120)
BALL Defense1252% (100)47% (121) - - - - - - 8 (93).44 (128)1.8 (119)33% (55)40% (133).57 (131)5% (115)2.2 (115)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense1454% (121)40% (57) - - - - - - 11 (52).22 (60)1.5 (53)35% (22)24% (2).18 (19)7% (40)2.2 (107)
BALL Offense1258% (16)41% (72)23.336.6244.76.710.526 (26)11 (72).19 (98)1.6 (73)33% (93)28% (101).29 (88)8% (123)2.2 (15)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -4.92  #79
Ohio's Offense Rating: 10.07  #86
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.99  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00  #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0  #84
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2  #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.92   Ball State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.0   Ball State: -23.0




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -19.115  #131
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #136
Ball State's Defense Rating: 19.13  #98
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 32
Ball State 18


Projected Total Points: 50
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Ball State20Ohio14Ohio -14Ball State52.5Under
202411/29Ohio42Ball State21Ohio -17.5Ohio51.5Over
202211/15Ball State18Ohio32Ohio -3.5Ohio57.5Under
201910/26Ball State21Ohio34Ball State -1.5Ohio60.0Under
201810/25Ohio52Ball State14Ohio -10.5Ohio66.0Push
201511/17Ohio48Ball State31Ohio -7Ohio56.0Over
201211/14Ball State52Ohio27
201110/15Ohio20Ball State23
200910/31Ball State17Ohio20
200510/22Ohio38Ball State21
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State312 Overs
Ohio753 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 44 - 23 - 11 - 1
Road Teams4 - 62 - 41 - 11 - 3

(#79) OHIO at (#131) BALL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOHIOBALL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #79 #131
SP+SP+ #84 #132
Perf GradeGrade #73 #133
OffenseOff #44 #133
DefenseDef #91 #123
Spec TeamsST #106 #120
TalentTal #101 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Ohio Notes
(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report
Ball State Notes
(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report
Ohio on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #44 #123
SuccessSuc #30 #118
ExplosiveExp #92 #126
PPAPPA #40 #128
PowerPwr #86 #98
SP+SP+ #98 #115
Pts POPPO #47 #133
HavocHav #42 #116
Ohio Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #48 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #103
Run ExplRExp #13 #110
PPAExp #18 #116
Run BlockR Blk #19 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #90
Stuff RateStuff #61 #77
TackleTak -  #117
Ohio Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #102 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #35 #121
Pass ExplPExl #128 #119
PPAExp #80 #128
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #70 #21
F7 HavocF7 #52 #103
DB HavocDB #43 #115
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffOHIO Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #91
SuccessSuc #78 #10
ExplosiveExp #81 #92
PPAPPA #98 #23
PowerPwr #136 #77
SP+SP+ #134 #61
Pts POPPO #65 #68
HavocHav #119 #14
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffOHIO Def
Run GameRun #130 #97
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #3
Run ExplRExp #117 #72
PPAExp #91 #6
Run BlockR Blk #106 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #8
Stuff RateStuff #8 #13
TackleTak -  #97
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffOHIO Def
Pass GamePass #132 #77
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #57
Pass ExplPExl #73 #53
PPAExp #98 #60
Pass Block/RushP Blk #108 #73
F7 HavocF7 #99 #13
DB HavocDB #123 #40
Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84°
Rematch from Week 6
Ohio 14.0 (52.5)
Ball State won vs Ohio this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Ohio last year (20-14)
Ohio beat Ball State in 2024 (42-21)

  
OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro18830362%237514117.8
Nick Poulos4850%19002.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)2401392155.849
Parker Navarro16188695.544
Duncan Brune12058584.966
Jake Bruno148048.048
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Hendricks711037714.667
Rodney Harris II30419214.049
Mason Williams27285310.630
Caleb Gossett12162013.535

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Thomeson867021
Adonis Williams Jr.754111
Charlie Christopher633222
Michael Molnar625223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Crable288644
Anas Luqman (Tr)339452
Joseph Marsh (Tr)82200
Derek Reagans82230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tank Pearson490008
Jack Fries543115
Jay Crable288644

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly15327256%15601085.7
Ty Robinson2367%770025.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kiael Kelly21160852.956
Qua Ashley (Tr)11854744.672
TJ Horton6018003.013
Eric Weatherly (Tr)1311709.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood19320116.853
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)20244012.247
Eric Weatherly (Tr)2923818.235
Koby Gross (Tr)10141114.142

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Nathan Voorhis49161020
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)441001
Joey Stemler442021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis49161020
DeJuan Echoles276422
Drew Hughes272210
Darin Conley244221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Jahmad Harmon242005