Ohio at Ball State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ohio logo Ohio Bobcats at Ball State CardinalsBall State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio -14 (52.5) (-600)  Open: -17.5
Ball State 20 - Ohio: 14  (Mid-American)

 
Bobcats (3 - 3) (3 - 2 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 26 (18 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
BALL coming off BYE
OHIO is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -13  (SP+ OHIO -15)

Projected Score: OHIO: 32 - BALL: 19 (51)
OHIO Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
OHIO Travel: 186 miles
Cardinals (2 - 4) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 32 (27 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Ohio at Rutgers+11.546.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/6 Ohio vs West Virginia+3.558.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/13 Ohio at Ohio State+28.049.0L 9 - 37UY
Sat 9/20 Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.555.0W 52 - 35ON
Sat 9/27 Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.549.5W 35 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Ohio at Ball State-14.052.5L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.541.5
Sat 10/25 Ohio at Eastern Michigan-6
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Ohio vs Miami (OH)-4
Tue 11/11 Ohio at Western Michigan+3
Tue 11/18 Ohio vs Massachusetts-23.5
Fri 11/28 Ohio at Buffalo+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron-1.542.5
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+15
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-1.5
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+4
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+34
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#78 (.18)42% (86)26.340% (103)2.99 (70)19645% (56)2143.54 (102)#57 (.14)43% (90)2642% (76)44% (96)2.5 (7)48.311.3
BALL#131 (.03)36% (128)13.736% (127)2.57 (118)13236% (123)1243.61 (97)#128 (.28)46% (114)31.547% (116)45% (103)4 (80)34.810.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#40 (.24)46% (30)47% (35)3.1 (52)21445% (35)1934.15 (47)#23 (.1)37% (10)34% (3)40% (57)3.79 (68)44.91.61.5
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Offense626.31841.9%3.541224111962145.154%45%40%45%15%.18
BALL Defense631.521.545.8%40.5 - - - - - 47%52%47%45%16%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Defense62630.343%2.51.3 - - - - - 51%50%42%44%16%.14
BALL Offense613.72736.1%3.611142561321243.757%43%36%36%21%.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio631:142240%42%5.848.311.35.71.8129
Ball State628:181432%63%4.334.810.55.52.3024.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense654% (39)40% (103)38.5196.35.111 (61).13 (64)2.99 (70)74% (60)9% (56)1.19 (10)
BALL Defense647% (39)47% (116) - - - - .26 (127)2.93 (84)72% (77)10% (59)1.21 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense651% (78)42% (76) - - - - .11 (78)2.86 (68)67% (43)9% (91)1.04 (95)
BALL Offense657% (27)36% (127)35.2131.53.75 (115).06 (100)2.57 (118)58% (126)16% (135)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense645% (101)45% (56)17.327.3214.27.812.49 (73)4 (50).29 (66)1.4 (108)33% (93)34% (44).31 (75)6% (83)1.8 (116)
BALL Defense652% (98)45% (103) - - - - - - 1 (128).31 (96)1.5 (57)30% (98)33% (103).43 (120)5% (93)2.1 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense650% (59)44% (96) - - - - - - 7 (23).18 (48)1.5 (67)29% (106)28% (60).22 (45)7% (51)1.7 (11)
BALL Offense643% (111)36% (123)12.821.31245.89.75 (116)2 (11).05 (127)1.4 (118)33% (101)25% (112).12 (122)5% (48)1.7 (123)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -3.15  #84
Ohio's Offense Rating: 5.51  #102
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.66  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00  #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3  #100
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #102
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.5  #92

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -3.15   Ball State: -18.585

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -8.3   Ball State: -23.4




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.585  #132
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #134
Ball State's Defense Rating: 17.67  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.4  #135
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.8  #132
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9  #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Ohio Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 32
Ball State 19


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Ball State 28
Ohio 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 24
Ball State 24

Total Points: 48
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 13.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 31.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Ball State20Ohio14Ohio -14Ball State52.5Under
202411/29Ohio42Ball State21Ohio -17.5Ohio51.5Over
202211/15Ball State18Ohio32Ohio -3.5Ohio57.5Under
201910/26Ball State21Ohio34Ball State -1.5Ohio60.0Under
201810/25Ohio52Ball State14Ohio -10.5Ohio66.0Push
201511/17Ohio48Ball State31Ohio -7Ohio56.0Over
201211/14Ball State52Ohio27
201110/15Ohio20Ball State23
200910/31Ball State17Ohio20
200510/22Ohio38Ball State21
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State312 Overs
Ohio753 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 44 - 23 - 11 - 1
Road Teams4 - 62 - 41 - 11 - 3

(#84) OHIO at (#132) BALL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOHIOBALL
Power RatePwr #84 #132
SP+SP+ #100 #135
Perf GradeGrade #107 #135
OffenseOff #75 #131
DefenseDef #116 #125
Spec TeamsST #108 #125
TalentTal #101 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88

Ohio Notes
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
(5/5) Def OK LY, returns good prod. 8 portal adds
(5/5) HC Smith was OC/PGC for past 3 years
(5/5) LY HC Albin left Ohio for Charlotte? Bad sign
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, OK LY. Have depth

Ball State Notes
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
(3/26) New HC Uremovich 23-11 @ Butler
(3/26) OC Harmon a HS coach recently, history w/ HC
Ohio on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
Perf GradePerf #75 #125
SuccessSuc #86 #114
ExplosiveExp #48 #116
PPAPPA #78 #128
PowerPwr #102 #115
SP+SP+ #102 #131
Pts POPPO #102 #80
HavocHav #60 #73
Ohio Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #76 #130
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #116
Run ExplRExp #10 #131
PPAExp #64 #127
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #70 #84
Stuff RateStuff #35 #72
TackleTak -  #55
Ohio Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
OHIO OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #108 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #56 #103
Pass ExplPExl #108 #57
PPAExp #66 #96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #85 #33
F7 HavocF7 #56 #59
DB HavocDB #83 #93
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatBALL OffOHIO Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #116
SuccessSuc #128 #90
ExplosiveExp #85 #85
PPAPPA #131 #57
PowerPwr #134 #73
SP+SP+ #132 #92
Pts POPPO #97 #7
HavocHav #130 #73
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BALL OffOHIO Def
Run GameRun #103 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #76
Run ExplRExp #30 #95
PPAExp #100 #78
Run BlockR Blk #136 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #68
Stuff RateStuff #112 #51
TackleTak -  #128
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatBALL OffOHIO Def
Pass GamePass #111 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #96
Pass ExplPExl #118 #67
PPAExp #127 #48
Pass Block/RushP Blk #120 #83
F7 HavocF7 #135 #91
DB HavocDB #48 #51
Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84°
Rematch from Week 6
Ohio 14.0 (52.5)
Ball State won vs Ohio this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Ball State last year (42-21)
Ohio beat Ball State in 2022 (32-18)

  
OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro10015664%1266948.1
Nick Poulos4850%19002.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)9948144.932
Parker Navarro6539836.144
Duncan Brune5524144.433
Nick Poulos73204.619
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Hendricks37585415.867
Mason Williams1514029.319
Rodney Harris II11131111.934
Max Rodarte786012.324

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Molnar525223
Adonis Williams Jr.462000
Cameron Hollobaugh (Tr)372130
Jalen Thomeson353000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Crable186434
Anas Luqman (Tr)157221
Michael Molnar525223
Nehemiah Dukes (Tr)162102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Crable186434
Tank Pearson250004
Michael Molnar525223

BALL's OC Craig Harmon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly7612660%725425.8
Qian Magwood11100%191019.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)7033334.872
Kiael Kelly9527322.940
TJ Horton2810903.913
Eric Weatherly (Tr)54909.822
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood11200118.253
Eric Weatherly (Tr)1611807.428
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)10100010.022
Qua Ashley (Tr)157815.227

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)312002
Ashton Whitner (Tr)273000
Joey Stemler251021
Willizhuan Yates250004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis248610
DeJuan Echoles125301
Drew Hughes172200
Scott Hudson71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon131004
Willizhuan Yates250004
Alfred Chea (Tr)312002