Bowling Green at Ohio - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio -7.5 (49.5) (-325) Open: -10.0
Ohio 35 - Bowling Green: 20 (Mid-American)

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

BGSU 2nd straight Road Game
OHIO 2nd straight Home Game
OHIO is playing their 5th straight game
BGSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -16.5 (SP+ OHIO -10)
Projected Score: BGSU: 17 - OHIO: 33 (50)
OHIO Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 163 miles

Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Bowling Green vs Lafayette	-21.0	53.0	W 26 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Bowling Green at Cincinnati	+21.5	46.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Bowling Green vs Liberty	+6.0	51.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Bowling Green at Louisville	+26.5	50.5	L 17 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Bowling Green at Ohio	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	45.5	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Bowling Green vs Central Michigan	-3.0	43.5	L 6 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/25	Bowling Green at Kent State	-7.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/8	Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan	+3.0	49.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18	Bowling Green vs Akron	-2.5	47.5	L 16 - 19	U	N
Tue 11/25	Bowling Green at Massachusetts	-14.0	44.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1.5	46.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-34.5	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	N
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	-7.0	44.5	W 31 - 26	O	N
Tue 12/23	Ohio vs UNLV	+6.5	64.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#128 (.02)	36% (128)	20.5	37% (125)	2.88 (78)	156	35% (124)	151	3.19 (118)	#61 (.15)	41% (56)	24.3	39% (40)	42% (68)	3.44 (48)	61	1.2	1.3
OHIO	#42 (.21)	45% (41)	27.8	45% (58)	3.32 (14)	228	46% (29)	184	3.55 (84)	#54 (.12)	41% (63)	21.9	42% (69)	40% (57)	2.83 (13)	48.3	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	24	35.6%	3.19	1.2	17	307	156	151	4	58%	40%	37%	35%	16%	.02
OHIO Defense	13	21.9	20	41.3%	2.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	42%	40%	15%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	29	40.6%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	42%	19%	.15
OHIO Offense	13	27.8	36.3	44.9%	3.55	1.5	22	412	228	184	5.4	60%	38%	45%	46%	12%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	12	31:18	16.6	37%	42%	6.7	61	1.2	1.3	6.2	1.8	1	31
Ohio	13	32:07	21.6	42%	59%	6.2	48.3	1.5	1.3	4.9	1.7	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	12	58% (15)	37% (125)	39.3	155.5	4	13 (119)	.03 (112)	2.88 (78)	58% (133)	10% (95)	0.95 (76)
OHIO Defense	13	50% (73)	42% (69)	-	-	-	-	.08 (56)	2.98 (87)	67% (32)	9% (86)	0.99 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	12	53% (105)	39% (40)	-	-	-	-	.06 (48)	2.74 (40)	59% (9)	13% (8)	1.06 (116)
OHIO Offense	13	60% (11)	45% (58)	42.5	228.2	5.4	32 (26)	.21 (23)	3.32 (14)	79% (23)	7% (17)	1.1 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	12	40% (122)	35% (124)	13.8	23.8	151.3	6.4	10.9	13 (106)	12 (119)	.07 (129)	1.6 (47)	34% (110)	25% (121)	.19 (114)	6% (66)	2.1 (50)
OHIO Defense	13	48% (65)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (31)	.21 (54)	1.6 (88)	31% (71)	28% (39)	.2 (26)	6% (75)	2 (55)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	12	46% (34)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.28 (82)	1.6 (95)	33% (49)	31% (86)	.32 (79)	7% (43)	2.1 (85)
OHIO Offense	13	38% (127)	46% (29)	14.8	24	184.2	7.7	12.5	14 (86)	11 (60)	.27 (60)	1.4 (119)	29% (31)	33% (35)	.24 (94)	5% (35)	1.6 (135)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -22.24 #132
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 0.09 #132
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 22.33 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.2 #115
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.8 #129
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #82

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -22.24 Ohio: -1.41

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -13.2 Ohio: -2.9

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -1.41 #79
Ohio's Offense Rating: 10.07 #86
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.99 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #82
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #88
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #67

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 33
Bowling Green 17

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio 30
Bowling Green 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 29
Bowling Green 22

Total Points: 51

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Ohio	35	Bowling Green	20	Ohio -7.5	Ohio	49.5	Over
2023	09/23	Bowling Green	7	Ohio	38	Ohio -13	Ohio	45.0	Push
2022	11/22	Ohio	38	Bowling Green	14	Ohio -5.5	Ohio	52.5	Under
2021	11/26	Bowling Green	21	Ohio	10	Ohio -6	Bowling Green	48.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ohio	52	Bowling Green	10	Ohio -22.5	Ohio	55.0	Over
2019	11/19	Bowling Green	24	Ohio	66	Ohio -21	Ohio	55.5	Over
2018	10/20	Ohio	49	Bowling Green	14	Ohio -16.5	Ohio	67.0	Under
2017	10/14	Bowling Green	30	Ohio	48	Ohio -9.5	Ohio	62.0	Over
2016	10/08	Ohio	30	Bowling Green	24	Ohio -15.5	Bowling Green	60.0	Under
2015	11/04	Bowling Green	62	Ohio	24	Bowling Green -13.5	Bowling Green	66.0	Over
2014	10/11	Ohio	13	Bowling Green	31	Ohio -2	Bowling Green	0
2013	11/12	Bowling Green	49	Ohio	0	Bowling Green -9	Bowling Green	0
2012	11/07	Ohio	14	Bowling Green	26
2011	11/16	Bowling Green	28	Ohio	29
2010	10/09	Ohio	49	Bowling Green	25
2009	10/03	Bowling Green	37	Ohio	44
2008	11/08	Ohio	3	Bowling Green	28
2007	10/27	Bowling Green	27	Ohio	38
2006	09/30	Ohio	9	Bowling Green	21
2005	10/08	Bowling Green	38	Ohio	14
2004	10/23	Ohio	16	Bowling Green	41
2002	10/05	Bowling Green	72	Ohio	21
2001	11/10	Ohio	0	Bowling Green	17
2000	11/10	Bowling Green	21	Ohio	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	13	7	5 Overs
Bowling Green	11	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	7 - 5	6 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 11	5 - 7	3 - 1	2 - 6

(#132) BGSU at (#79) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	#102	#62
Power RatePwr	#132	#79
SP+SP+	#115	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#73
OffenseOff	#104	#44
DefenseDef	#88	#91
Spec TeamsST	#77	#106
TalentTal	#112	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Bowling Green Notes(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report

Ohio Notes(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	#116	#77
Perf GradePerf	#104	#91
SuccessSuc	#128	#63
ExplosiveExp	#82	#75
PPAPPA	#128	#54
PowerPwr	#132	#77
SP+SP+	#129	#67
Pts POPPO	#118	#13
HavocHav	#80	#86

Bowling Green Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#101	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	#125	#69
Run ExplRExp	#76	#90
PPAExp	#112	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#87
Stuff RateStuff	#66	#72
TackleTak	-	#97

Bowling Green Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#124	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#88
PPAExp	#129	#54
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#86	#73
F7 HavocF7	#95	#86
DB HavocDB	#66	#75

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	#80	#43
Perf GradePerf	#44	#88
SuccessSuc	#41	#56
ExplosiveExp	#84	#105
PPAPPA	#42	#61
PowerPwr	#86	#124
SP+SP+	#88	#82
Pts POPPO	#84	#48
HavocHav	#17	#13

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#40
Run ExplRExp	#16	#116
PPAExp	#23	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#8
TackleTak	-	#62

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#95
PPAExp	#60	#82
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#47
F7 HavocF7	#17	#8
DB HavocDB	#35	#43

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79°

Rematch from Week 5
Ohio -7.5 (49.5)
Ohio won vs Bowling Green this year (35-20)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Bowling Green in 2023 (38-7)
Ohio beat Bowling Green in 2022 (38-14)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)	94	151	62%	882	4	5	5.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)	33	66	50%	473	5	4	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)	108	493	5	4.6	24
Cameron Pettaway	72	365	0	5.1	34
Chris McMillian	84	342	3	4.1	33
Kaderris Roberts	48	215	0	4.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)	37	466	2	12.6	38
RJ Garcia II	27	283	0	10.5	28
Finn Hogan	13	183	0	14.1	24
Jacob Harris	19	182	5	9.6	38

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Steve Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	0	5
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)	57	6	2	1	1
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Bradley	20	6	5	7	0
Eriq George (Tr)	26	5	4	2	0
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
David Afogho	37	4	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)	22	0	0	13
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	7
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	5

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	188	303	62%	2375	14	11	7.8
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	240	1392	15	5.8	49
Parker Navarro	161	886	9	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	120	585	8	4.9	66
Jake Bruno	1	48	0	48.0	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	71	1037	7	14.6	67
Rodney Harris II	30	419	2	14.0	49
Mason Williams	27	285	3	10.6	30
Caleb Gossett	12	162	0	13.5	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson	86	7	0	2	1
Adonis Williams Jr.	75	4	1	1	1
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	49	0	0	0	8
Jack Fries	54	3	1	1	5
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4