Ball State at UConn - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UConn -21 (53.5) (-1800) Open: -18.5
UConn 31 - Ball State: 25

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

CONN is playing their 4th straight game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UConn -25 (SP+ CONN -28)
Projected Score: BALL: 14 - CONN: 39 (54)
CONN Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BALL Travel: 675 miles

Huskies (9 - 4) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ball State at Purdue	+16.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/6	Ball State at Auburn	+43.0	52.5	L 3 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ball State vs New Hampshire	-3.0	46.5	W 34 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Ball State at UConn	+21.0	53.5	L 25 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Ball State vs Ohio	+14.0	52.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Ball State at Western Michigan	+9.5	43.5	L 0 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/18	Ball State vs Akron	+2.5	44.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+6.5	41.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Ball State vs Kent State	-3.0	48.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Ball State vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	48.5	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/22	Ball State at Toledo	+29.5	45.5	L 9 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Ball State at Miami (OH)	+16.5	40.5	L 24 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

UConn's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UConn vs Central Connecticut	-29.5	51.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UConn at Syracuse	+7.0	57.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	UConn at Delaware	-8.5	52.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/20	UConn vs Ball State	-21.0	53.5	W 31 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/27	UConn at Buffalo	-3.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/4	UConn vs Florida International	-7.0	52.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	UConn at Boston College	-2.5	58.5	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/25	UConn at Rice	-10.5	48.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/1	UConn vs UAB	-10.0	61.5	W 38 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/8	UConn vs Duke	+7.5	63.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/15	UConn vs Air Force	-7.5	64.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/22	UConn at Florida Atlantic	-6.0	64.0	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/27	UConn vs Army	+5.5	41.5	L 16 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	15.8	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	29.8	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)	35.3	43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)	27	42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CONN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14
CONN Defense	13	27	19.5	39.4%	3.36	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	37%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32
CONN Offense	13	35.3	40.3	41.8%	4.09	1.2	19	371	184	187	5.2	54%	46%	43%	40%	13%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3
UConn	13	27:16	19.1	37%	47%	5	50.4	1.2	1.1	5.2	1.6	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)
CONN Defense	13	49% (45)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.05 (29)	2.76 (31)	63% (18)	10% (78)	0.89 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)
CONN Offense	13	54% (39)	43% (82)	35.7	184.1	5.2	22 (55)	.18 (40)	3.07 (58)	77% (39)	7% (13)	1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)
CONN Defense	13	51% (84)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.17 (35)	1.5 (37)	32% (72)	26% (17)	.28 (57)	7% (23)	2.1 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)
CONN Offense	13	46% (96)	40% (84)	15.8	28.6	186.8	6.5	11.8	23 (41)	9 (48)	.23 (85)	1.5 (114)	30% (47)	30% (88)	.29 (86)	6% (87)	2 (82)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.23 #132
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10 #137
Ball State's Defense Rating: 19.13 #99
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4 #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.23 UConn: 3.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0 UConn: 5.1

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 3.435 #76
UConn's Offense Rating: 18.99 #34
UConn's Defense Rating: 22.22 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #53
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #38
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #76

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 39
Ball State 14

Projected Total Points: 54

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	UConn	31	Ball State	25	UConn -21	Ball State	53.5	Over
2022	10/15	Ball State	25	UConn	21	Ball State -9.5	UConn	47.5	Under
2002	09/28	UConn	21	Ball State	24
2001	10/27	UConn	5	Ball State	10
2000	11/17	Ball State	29	UConn	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	1	1	1 Overs
Ball State	4	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#132) BALL at (#76) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	CONN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#132	#76
SP+SP+	#132	#53
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#33
OffenseOff	#133	#14
DefenseDef	#123	#94
Spec TeamsST	#120	#86
TalentTal	#97	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#65

Ball State Notes(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report

UConn Notes(12/6) Hires Jason Candle (Toledo HC), Mora to Col St
(10/25) Bad L vs Rice, Def mauled for 300 yds rushing
(10/18) Great W at BC, QB Fagano balled out, 5-2 and rolling
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well
UConn Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CONN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#94
SuccessSuc	#78	#37
ExplosiveExp	#81	#26
PPAPPA	#98	#25
PowerPwr	#137	#124
SP+SP+	#134	#76
Pts POPPO	#65	#26
HavocHav	#119	#53

Ball State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#130	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#63
Run ExplRExp	#117	#28
PPAExp	#91	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#26
TackleTak	-	#105

Ball State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#132	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#37
PPAExp	#98	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#96
F7 HavocF7	#99	#78
DB HavocDB	#123	#23

UConn on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#14	#123
SuccessSuc	#82	#118
ExplosiveExp	#99	#126
PPAPPA	#67	#128
PowerPwr	#34	#99
SP+SP+	#38	#115
Pts POPPO	#51	#133
HavocHav	#30	#116

UConn Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#29	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#103
Run ExplRExp	#45	#110
PPAExp	#40	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#77
TackleTak	-	#117

UConn Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#114	#119
PPAExp	#85	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#21
F7 HavocF7	#13	#103
DB HavocDB	#87	#115

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
UConn -21.0 (53.5)
UConn won vs Ball State this year (31-25)

Previous Matchups
UConn beat Ball State last year (31-25)

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	153	272	56%	1560	10	8	5.7
Ty Robinson	2	3	67%	77	0	0	25.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kiael Kelly	211	608	5	2.9	56
Qua Ashley (Tr)	118	547	4	4.6	72
TJ Horton	60	180	0	3.0	13
Eric Weatherly (Tr)	13	117	0	9.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	19	320	1	16.8	53
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)	20	244	0	12.2	47
Eric Weatherly (Tr)	29	238	1	8.2	35
Koby Gross (Tr)	10	141	1	14.1	42

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alfred Chea (Tr)	59	4	0	1	5
Nathan Voorhis	49	16	10	2	0
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)	44	1	0	0	1
Joey Stemler	44	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathan Voorhis	49	16	10	2	0
DeJuan Echoles	27	6	4	2	2
Drew Hughes	27	2	2	1	0
Darin Conley	24	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	6
Alfred Chea (Tr)	59	4	1	5
Jahmad Harmon	24	2	0	5

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Fagnano	284	412	69%	3441	28	1	8.4
Ksaan Farrar	11	18	61%	84	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Jayden Brown	32	262	2	8.2	49
Victor Rosa	30	155	2	5.2	31
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman	23	138	1	6.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell	101	1276	13	12.6	80
Reymello Murphy (Tr)	39	446	3	11.4	61
John Neider	27	422	2	15.6	45
Javonte Vereen (Tr)	21	305	5	14.5	50

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Malachi McLean	79	2	1	1	2
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Donovan Branch	30	5	4	7	1
Tyquan King (Tr)	41	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Mon Brinson	59	7	0	0	6
Tyrece Mills (Tr)	25	2	0	1	5
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4