Ball State at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -16.5 (50.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5 | 50.5
Purdue 31 - Ball State: 0

 
Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Purdue -10.5  (SP+ PUR -14)
Projected Score: BALL: 21 - PUR: 32 (53)
PUR Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BALL Travel: 81 miles
Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+2.544.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.541.5L 7 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-3.048.5W 17 - 13UY
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2.548.5L 9 - 24UN
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+29.545.5L 9 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.540.5L 24 - 45ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5L 10 - 34UY
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+14.551.5L 13 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+28.553.5L 3 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (134)1382.71 (132)#80 (.18)44% (107)29.847% (115)44% (95)3.57 (60)38.81.31.1
PUR#103 (.11)43% (62)18.843% (72)2.94 (69)12643% (53)2173.06 (120)#125 (.27)48% (131)31.849% (128)48% (128)4.03 (105)46.81.80.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.732.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-
PUR Defense1231.83048.3%4.030.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.744.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
PUR Offense1218.820.942.8%3.061.819344126217447%52%43%43%16%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Purdue1228:0119.338%60%4.846.81.80.85.32027.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1255% (29)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (110)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (22)
PUR Defense1255% (125)49% (128) - - - - .18 (114)3.25 (122)78% (112)10% (68)0.86 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1252% (100)47% (115) - - - - .16 (97)2.97 (84)63% (18)9% (99)1.03 (101)
PUR Offense1247% (97)43% (72)31.3126.4411 (78).15 (53)2.94 (69)56% (136)10% (89)1.04 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1242% (111)31% (134)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (65)36% (132)22% (133).06 (131)5% (44)1.9 (88)
PUR Defense1243% (13)48% (128) - - - - - - 4 (123).4 (123)1.6 (101)28% (126)32% (98).26 (59)6% (76)1.9 (33)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1246% (38)44% (95) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (92)1.6 (72)30% (99)32% (103).33 (89)5% (90)2 (67)
PUR Offense1252% (37)43% (53)19.833.7217.26.51115 (86)13 (132).14 (117)1.4 (117)32% (87)36% (17).36 (50)6% (73)1.9 (97)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -13.46  #123
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #133
Ball State's Defense Rating: 12.36  #97
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.8  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #118

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -13.46   Purdue: -7.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -21.9   Purdue: -7.8




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -7.05  #114
Purdue's Offense Rating: 4.53  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.83  #116
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.8  #96
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #105
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Purdue 32
Ball State 21


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Ball State 39
Purdue 26

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Purdue 26
Ball State 22

Total Points: 48
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Purdue31Ball State0Purdue -16.5Purdue50.5Under
201009/18Purdue24Ball State13
200609/16Purdue38Ball State28
200409/11Purdue59Ball State7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue410 Overs
Ball State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 40 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#123) BALL at (#114) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLPUR
Power RatePwr #123 #114
SP+SP+ #132 #96
Perf GradeGrade #134 #125
OffenseOff #134 #113
DefenseDef #115 #130
Spec TeamsST #109 #6
TalentTal #97 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
Ball State Notes
(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report
Purdue Notes
(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #134 #130
SuccessSuc #136 #131
ExplosiveExp #36 #49
PPAPPA #134 #125
PowerPwr #133 #116
SP+SP+ #134 #94
Pts POPPO #132 #105
HavocHav #135 #77
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #128 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #128
Run ExplRExp #22 #18
PPAExp #110 #114
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLY #130 #122
Stuff RateStuff #122 #81
TackleTak -  #125
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #121 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #134 #128
Pass ExplPExl #65 #101
PPAExp #136 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #110 #116
F7 HavocF7 #136 #68
DB HavocDB #44 #76
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffBALL Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #115
SuccessSuc #62 #107
ExplosiveExp #75 #71
PPAPPA #103 #80
PowerPwr #94 #97
SP+SP+ #105 #118
Pts POPPO #120 #60
HavocHav #79 #105
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #97 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #115
Run ExplRExp #41 #101
PPAExp #53 #97
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #84
Stuff RateStuff #76 #43
TackleTak -  #120
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #77 #131
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #95
Pass ExplPExl #117 #72
PPAExp #117 #92
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #11
F7 HavocF7 #89 #99
DB HavocDB #73 #90
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Purdue -16.5 (50.5)
Purdue won vs Ball State this year (31-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Craig Harmon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly15327256%15601085.7
Ty Robinson2367%770025.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kiael Kelly21160852.956
Qua Ashley (Tr)11854744.672
TJ Horton6018003.013
Eric Weatherly (Tr)1311709.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood19320116.853
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)20244012.247
Eric Weatherly (Tr)2923818.235
Koby Gross (Tr)10141114.142

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Nathan Voorhis49161020
Joey Stemler442021
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)441001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis49161020
DeJuan Echoles276422
Drew Hughes272210
Darin Conley244221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Jahmad Harmon242005

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)19933859%21539106.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)386459%439526.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris6930524.441
Malachi Thomas (Tr)5324304.657
Ryan Browne (Tr)6620643.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)6357019.031
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
E.J. Horton (Tr)27289110.728
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Myles Slusher632103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
C.J. Nunnally4211581
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Jamarrion Harkless132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines322008
Smiley Bradford305026
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005