Ball State at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -16.5 (50.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5 | 50.5
Purdue 31 - Ball State: 0

 
Cardinals (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 12 - 34 (2 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.3 - 8.7 (#125)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Purdue -20.5   (SP+ PUR -20)
Projected Score: BALL: 13 - PUR: 34 (47)
PUR Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BALL Travel: 81 miles
Boilermakers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 17 (27 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.052.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+13.5
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+7
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+0.5
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+18
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-0
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+1.5
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+32.5
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+12

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+26.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+22.5
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+20
Sat 10/18 Purdue vs Northwestern+6.5
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers+11.5
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+29.5
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+31.5
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Purdue vs Indiana+22.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#107 (.09)35% (126)12.336% (117)2.52 (110)14035% (111)883 (116)#121 (.32)51% (128)3449% (117)52% (125)3.6 (70)43.710.3
PUR#78 (.17)49% (34)27.349% (43)2.69 (99)12050% (32)2723.58 (90)#90 (.18)43% (95)16.744% (92)43% (88)3.31 (60)38.31.30
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense312.31.535.3%311322814088464%35%36%35%22%.09
PUR Defense316.716.743.2%3.310 - - - - - 53%47%44%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense33436.550.6%3.60.3 - - - - - 41%59%49%52%20%.32
PUR Offense327.327.349.2%3.581.3253911202723.252%47%49%50%18%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State328:3613.332%67%5.343.710.37.33.3024.4
Purdue329:392551%83%3.338.31.3072.7028.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense364% (10)36% (117)35140.343 (95).12 (79)2.52 (110)86% (22)19% (134)1.25 (21)
PUR Defense353% (94)44% (92) - - - - .11 (92)3.16 (109)69% (66)12% (42)0.79 (34)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense341% (14)49% (117) - - - - .35 (130)2.94 (85)83% (110)14% (23)1.19 (111)
PUR Offense352% (61)49% (43)37119.73.25 (62).14 (68)2.69 (99)65% (95)13% (121)0.91 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense335% (128)35% (111)9.715.787.75.69.12 (102)1 (23).1 (116)1.4 (107)36% (118)18% (127).04 (121)3% (16)2 (73)
PUR Defense347% (47)43% (88) - - - - - - 0.26 (85)1.7 (96)32% (81)26% (45).22 (59)4% (106)2.2 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense359% (127)52% (125) - - - - - - 0.29 (100)1.3 (24)30% (99)35% (111).28 (73)6% (66)1.6 (30)
PUR Offense347% (77)50% (32)19.330.3271.7914.15 (54)4 (121).24 (77)1.6 (43)31% (66)41% (26).3 (78)5% (65)1.9 (82)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.98 #133
Ball State's Offense Rating: 1.18 #130
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.48 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.3 - 8.7
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.2 #134
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #127
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.9 #132

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.98   Purdue: -1.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.2   Purdue: -3.2




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -1.72 #92
Purdue's Offense Rating: 10.07 #82
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.31 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.9 - 9.1
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #78
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 12.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 1.5
Defense: 34 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Purdue 34
Ball State 13


Total Points: 47

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 16.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.7

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Purdue31Ball State0PurduePurdue -16.5Purdue50.5Under
201009/18Purdue24Ball State13Purdue
200609/16Purdue38Ball State28Purdue
200409/11Purdue59Ball State7Purdue
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue410 Overs
Ball State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 40 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#133) Ball State Info
Power Rating: -20.98 #133
Offense Rating: 1.18 #130
Defense Rating: 22.48 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.2 #134
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.9 #132
Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 3.3 - 8.7

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 51%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.6 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 2 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Ball State Notes
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
(3/26) New HC Uremovich 23-11 @ Butler
(3/26) OC Harmon a HS coach recently, history w/ HC

Ball State Highlights
Ball State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ball State Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Ball State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Ball State Deficiencies
Ball State has a really bad Offense
Ball State offense is really bad (#126)
Ball State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#120)
Ball State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#116)
Ball State run game is really bad (#117)
Ball State pass game is really bad (#111)
Ball State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Ball State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Ball State has a bad defense (#128)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatPURBALL
OverallOver#58#107
OffenseOff#48#106
DefenseDef#75#99
Special TeamsST#29#92
PassingPass#32#109
RushingRush#55#51
Run BlockRBLK#74#112
Pass BlockPBLK#103#77
Route RunningWR Rt#37#100
TacklingTkl#69#93
Run DefenseR Def#75#109
Pass Rush DefPRush#100#15
Coverage DefCov#59#103

Rematch from Week 1
Purdue -16.5 (50.5)
Purdue won vs Ball State this year (31-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BALL | PUR
Depth Chart: BALL | PUR
Rosters: BALL | PUR
(#92) Purdue Info
Power Rating: -1.72 #92
Offense Rating: 10.07 #82
Defense Rating: 15.31 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #78
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 2.9 - 9.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 49%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Good Pass Success 50%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.31 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 1 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Purdue Notes
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
(3/20) RB Mockobee starter LY, hopefully more TY
(3/20) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds (3 P4/2 G5)
(3/20) OL rebuild 0/5 back. 3 UNLV portals w/ Odom
(3/20) Def awful LY, 11 portals. New DC (UNLV)
(3/20) New OC Henson was USC's OC past 2 yrs
(3/20) New DC Scherer from UNLV w/ Odom

Purdue Highlights
Purdue offense is good on 3rd downs
Purdue commits very few Penalties (#13)
Purdue defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Purdue Deficiencies
Purdue Can Not Run the Ball (#107)
Purdue throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Purdue Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Purdue has a bad defensive line (#109)


  
Ball State's OC Craig Harmon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly294762%263215.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)3420926.172
Kiael Kelly5014312.940
TJ Horton113303.08
Eric Weatherly (Tr)32107.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Weatherly (Tr)76008.616
Elijah Jackson (Tr)137037.037
Qua Ashley (Tr)73314.727
TJ Horton32809.314

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Whitner (Tr)132000
Willizhuan Yates130004
Alfred Chea (Tr)132000
Jack Beebe120000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeJuan Echoles115301
Nathan Voorhis104300
Drew Hughes82200
Caden Johnson92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates130004
Jahmad Harmon71004
Jackson Wiegold60002

Purdue's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)568864%786548.9
Malachi Singleton (Tr)2367%29009.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee5823034.017
Ryan Browne (Tr)255922.426
Antonio Harris93604.017
Malachi Thomas (Tr)102102.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Arhmad Branch7167223.949
Michael Jackson III (Tr)14149110.631
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)8130216.333
E.J. Horton (Tr)10125012.521

View Purdue's Full Roster
Purdue's DC Michael Scherer
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
Myles Slusher181001
Mani Powell (Tr)172101
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)171000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
C.J. Nunnally42240
Jamarrion Harkless41200
Mani Powell (Tr)172101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines91002
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
Mani Powell (Tr)172101