Ball State at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -16.5 (50.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5 | 50.5
Purdue 31 - Ball State: 0

 
Cardinals (4 - 5) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 28 (7 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#105)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Purdue -17  (SP+ PUR -19)
Projected Score: BALL: 18 - PUR: 35 (53)
PUR Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BALL Travel: 81 miles
Boilermakers (2 - 8) (5 - 5 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (24 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+2.544.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.541.5L 7 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-3.048.5W 17 - 13UY
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+27
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+17

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+25
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+30

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#124 (.04)35% (131)16.436% (128)1.99 (131)12735% (127)1152.94 (128)#100 (.2)45% (109)27.946% (112)44% (97)3.65 (67)33.21.20.9
PUR#93 (.13)45% (43)20.946% (42)2.85 (67)12844% (51)2113.33 (109)#109 (.21)45% (114)27.746% (108)45% (109)3.55 (61)451.70.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense916.4735.3%2.941.2132421271153.858%40%36%35%20%.04
PUR Defense1027.725.745.1%3.550.7 - - - - - 55%44%46%45%17%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense927.933.444.7%3.650.9 - - - - - 51%49%46%44%15%.2
PUR Offense1020.923.844.8%3.331.7193391282114.347%52%46%44%15%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State925:4112.933%60%433.21.20.94.62.1126.5
Purdue1025:3118.839%65%4.6451.70.75.32.1027.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense958% (17)36% (128)33.2127.13.89 (88).07 (87)1.99 (131)56% (132)15% (135)1.15 (9)
PUR Defense1055% (119)46% (108) - - - - .12 (94)3.21 (124)76% (100)10% (54)0.81 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense951% (76)46% (112) - - - - .17 (114)3.02 (106)69% (51)10% (70)1.05 (108)
PUR Offense1047% (91)46% (42)29.7128.14.311 (78).18 (35)2.85 (67)63% (120)10% (80)1.04 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense940% (124)35% (127)10.919115.36.110.67 (114)5 (20).03 (129)1.5 (85)35% (120)26% (111).15 (114)5% (41)2 (64)
PUR Defense1044% (19)45% (109) - - - - - - 3 (123).36 (115)1.7 (120)29% (109)30% (73).22 (43)6% (55)1.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense949% (64)44% (97) - - - - - - 4 (100).28 (91)1.5 (60)29% (107)34% (120).39 (111)5% (98)2 (74)
PUR Offense1052% (47)44% (51)18.330.1210.7711.513 (86)10 (132).13 (113)1.4 (111)30% (59)37% (20).31 (72)5% (38)1.9 (93)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -14.90  #129
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #134
Ball State's Defense Rating: 13.80  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.8  #131
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #127
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7  #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -14.90   Purdue: -1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.8   Purdue: -2.0




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -1  #89
Purdue's Offense Rating: 6.21  #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 11.21  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.0  #75
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #75
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0  #75

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 16.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.4

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Purdue 35
Ball State 18


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Ball State 39
Purdue 26

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Purdue 26
Ball State 19

Total Points: 45
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.8
Defense: 27.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.7

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Purdue31Ball State0Purdue -16.5Purdue50.5Under
201009/18Purdue24Ball State13
200609/16Purdue38Ball State28
200409/11Purdue59Ball State7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue410 Overs
Ball State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 40 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#129) BALL at (#89) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLPUR
Power RatePwr #129 #89
SP+SP+ #131 #75
Perf GradeGrade #133 #112
OffenseOff #132 #92
DefenseDef #125 #121
Spec TeamsST #85 #20
TalentTal #97 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
Ball State Notes
(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report
Purdue Notes
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
(3/20) RB Mockobee starter LY, hopefully more TY
(3/20) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds (3 P4/2 G5)
Purdue Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #132 #121
SuccessSuc #131 #114
ExplosiveExp #25 #53
PPAPPA #124 #109
PowerPwr #134 #87
SP+SP+ #127 #75
Pts POPPO #128 #61
HavocHav #132 #57
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #122 #127
Run SuccessRSuc #128 #108
Run ExplRExp #9 #11
PPAExp #87 #94
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #124
Stuff RateStuff #119 #71
TackleTak -  #117
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BALL OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #113 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #127 #109
Pass ExplPExl #85 #120
PPAExp #129 #115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #99
F7 HavocF7 #135 #54
DB HavocDB #41 #55
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffBALL Def
Perf GradePerf #92 #125
SuccessSuc #43 #109
ExplosiveExp #78 #79
PPAPPA #93 #100
PowerPwr #90 #108
SP+SP+ #75 #124
Pts POPPO #109 #67
HavocHav #63 #87
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #69 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #112
Run ExplRExp #37 #108
PPAExp #35 #114
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #106
Stuff RateStuff #54 #80
TackleTak -  #116
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #63 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #97
Pass ExplPExl #111 #60
PPAExp #113 #91
Pass Block/RushP Blk #113 #25
F7 HavocF7 #80 #70
DB HavocDB #38 #98
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Purdue -16.5 (50.5)
Purdue won vs Ball State this year (31-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Craig Harmon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly11319757%1155855.9
Qian Magwood11100%191019.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)10752544.972
Kiael Kelly16247052.940
TJ Horton4014403.613
Eric Weatherly (Tr)65409.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood13238118.353
Eric Weatherly (Tr)2215807.228
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)13133010.222
Koby Gross (Tr)9133114.842

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)503003
Nathan Voorhis4114910
Joey Stemler401021
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)371000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis4114910
DeJuan Echoles215312
Drew Hughes252210
Darin Conley213221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates270006
Jahmad Harmon211004
Alfred Chea (Tr)503003

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)17328561%1898986.7
Malachi Singleton (Tr)203459%270327.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris4425125.741
Malachi Thomas (Tr)4322105.157
Ryan Browne (Tr)6019543.326
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)5347118.931
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)26368414.233
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960
Devin Mockobee18215111.929

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)9410412
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)913005
Charles Correa (Tr)698342
Myles Slusher582103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Nunnally338581
Mani Powell (Tr)9410412
Charles Correa (Tr)698342
Jamarrion Harkless112340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines292007
Smiley Bradford275015
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)913005