Northern Colorado at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northern Colorado logo   Northern Colorado Bears at Colorado State Rams  Colorado State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -35.0 (52.5) (0)  Open: -35.0 | 52.5
Colorado State 21 - Northern Colorado: 17

 
Bears (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 17 - 21 (17 - 21 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -11  (SP+ CSU -16)
CSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 47%
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Northern Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/6 Northern Colorado at Colorado State+35.052.5L 17 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Colorado's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNCO0%170%000%000%210%0%0000
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)18.543% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)30.842% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNCO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNCO Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%
CSU Defense1330.827.142.4%41.5 - - - - - 49%51%42%43%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNCO Defense121210%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
CSU Offense1318.519.942.2%3.561.2163541621924.955%45%43%41%15%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Colorado10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Colorado State1328:4416.535%64%5.847.31.21.54.21.1227.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNCO Offense10%0%000000%0%0
CSU Defense1349% (51)42% (59) - - - - .1 (55)3.01 (70)69% (45)9% (91)1.02 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNCO Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
CSU Offense1355% (30)43% (80)33.4161.84.919 (73).03 (115)2.88 (96)55% (133)9% (46)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNCO Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
CSU Defense1351% (85)43% (94) - - - - - - 10 (66).22 (59)1.4 (16)30% (105)30% (64).27 (49)8% (22)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNCO Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
CSU Offense1345% (102)41% (81)16.226.4191.87.311.815 (98)8 (40).31 (43)1.7 (25)32% (75)34% (37).42 (33)7% (98)2 (92)

Northern Colorado's Power Ratings
Northern Colorado's Power Rating: NR
Northern Colorado's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Colorado's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Colorado's 2025 Expected Record: -
Northern Colorado's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Colorado:    Colorado State: -10.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Colorado:    Colorado State: -15.6




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.895  #106
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.48  #77
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.67  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #124
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #120
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northern Colorado Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Northern Colorado's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Northern Colorado 23
Colorado State 20

Projected Total Points: 43
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Colorado State21Northern Colorado17Colorado State -35.0Northern Colorado52.5Under
202409/07Colorado State38Northern Colorado17Colorado State -31Northern Colorado52.5Over
201609/17Colorado State47Northern Colorado21Colorado State -22Colorado State0
201109/10Colorado State33Northern Colorado14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State411 Overs
Northern Colorado021 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 01 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 42 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#) UNCO at (#106) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCOCSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #106
SP+SP+NR #124
Perf GradeGradeNR #135
OffenseOffNR #124
DefenseDefNR #135
Spec TeamsSTNR #132
TalentTalNR #87
Blue ChipsBC%NR #101
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Northern Colorado on Offense
CategoryCat
UNCO OffCSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #135
SuccessSucNR #78
ExplosiveExpNR #49
PPAPPANR #61
PowerPwrNR #126
SP+SP+NR #105
Pts POPPONR #88
HavocHavNR #59
Northern Colorado Run Game
CategoryCat
UNCO OffCSU Def
Run GameRunNR #134
Run SuccessRSucNR #59
Run ExplRExpNR #88
PPAExpNR #55
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #70
Stuff RateStuffNR #93
TackleTak -  #61
Northern Colorado Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNCO OffCSU Def
Pass GamePassNR #115
Pass SuccessPSucNR #94
Pass ExplPExlNR #16
PPAExpNR #59
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #135
F7 HavocF7NR #91
DB HavocDBNR #22
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffUNCO Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #124NR
SuccessSuc #76NR
ExplosiveExp #85NR
PPAPPA #90NR
PowerPwr #77NR
SP+SP+ #120NR
Pts POPPO #98NR
HavocHav #59NR
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffUNCO Def
Run GameRun #97NR
Run SuccessRSuc #80NR
Run ExplRExp #87NR
PPAExp #115NR
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #96NR
Stuff RateStuff #112NR
TackleTak - NR
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffUNCO Def
Pass GamePass #121NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81NR
Pass ExplPExl #25NR
PPAExp #43NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #124NR
F7 HavocF7 #46NR
DB HavocDB #98NR
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UNCO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Colorado State -35.0 (52.5)
Colorado State won vs Northern Colorado this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Northern Colorado last year (21-17)
Colorado State beat Northern Colorado in 2024 (38-17)

  
UNCO's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Eric Gibson Jr.23235565%250211117.0
Peter Costelli224154%272146.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mathias Price11048334.428
Brandon Johnson (Tr)8031964.030
Justin Guin5328415.459
Kieryus Boone2912824.435
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Carver Cheeks71929613.175
Brayden Munroe46696315.160
Charles Garrison27329212.236
Dawson Menegatti17190011.237

View Northern Colorado's Full Roster

UNCO's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Nowatzke100000
Ezra Ekuban92100
Darrell Bryant Jr.80001
Cam Chapa80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Ekuban92100
Zach Nowatzke100000
Brody Bliek10010
Mikhail Benner10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Smith00001
Mekhi Toms10001
Darrell Bryant Jr.80001

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205