Northwestern State at South Alabama - 2024 Matchup Preview
Northwestern State logo   Northwestern State Demons at South Alabama Jaguars  South Alabama logo
Thursday, September 12th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Alabama -36.5 (60.5) (-7500)  Open: -38.0 | 60.5
South Alabama 87 - Northwestern State: 10

 
Demons (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 68 (0 - 68 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NWST coming off BYE
Our Line: South Alabama -2  (SP+ USA -3)
USA Win prob: 94% | Cover: 38%
Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northwestern State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Northwestern State at Tulsa+37.555.5L 28 - 62OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 9/12 Northwestern State at South Alabama+36.560.5L 10 - 87ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern State's Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 South Alabama vs North Texas-6.061.5L 38 - 52ON
Sat 9/7 South Alabama at Ohio-1.555.5L 20 - 27UN
Thu 9/12 South Alabama vs Northwestern State-36.560.5W 87 - 10OY
Thu 9/19 South Alabama at App State+8.062.5W 48 - 14UY
Sat 9/28 South Alabama at LSU+21.064.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/5 South Alabama at Arkansas State-2.562.5L 16 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 South Alabama vs Troy-10.053.0W 25 - 9UY
Sat 10/26 South Alabama vs UL Monroe-7.045.0W 46 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 South Alabama vs Georgia Southern-5.560.0L 30 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 South Alabama at Louisiana+6.560.0W 24 - 22UY
Sat 11/23 South Alabama at Southern Miss-24.054.0W 35 - 14UN
Fri 11/29 South Alabama vs Texas State+2.560.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 12/14 South Alabama vs Western Michigan-6.053.5W 30 - 23UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NWST0%00%000%000%680%0%0000
USA#31 (.28)43% (57)26.542% (80)3.24 (44)17245% (35)2684.67 (15)#34 (.14)37% (17)30.435% (8)40% (44)3.32 (21)57.71.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NWST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NWST Offense2000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
USA Defense1330.428.836.6%3.321.7 - - - - - 54%45%35%40%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NWST Defense268680%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
USA Offense1326.527.843%4.671.5234401722684.848%51%42%45%15%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northwestern State20:000NAN%0%0000000100
South Alabama1330:3022.643%63%6.757.71.51.75.82031.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NWST Offense20%0%000000%0%0
USA Defense1354% (116)35% (8) - - - - -.01 (12)2.69 (14)74% (74)11% (33)0.9 (27)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NWST Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
USA Offense1348% (81)42% (80)36171.94.828 (25).18 (49)3.24 (44)74% (71)10% (76)1.18 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NWST Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
USA Defense1345% (19)40% (44) - - - - - - 13 (26).36 (109)1.8 (124)36% (12)27% (29).28 (47)5% (106)2.2 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NWST Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
USA Offense1351% (55)45% (35)22.432.9268.28.11228 (23)11 (68).41 (26)1.7 (34)34% (104)39% (8).59 (7)5% (27)2.2 (34)

Northwestern State's Power Ratings
Northwestern State's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern State's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Northwestern State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Northwestern State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Northwestern State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southland Talent Rating is 93.74
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern State:    South Alabama: 2.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern State:    South Alabama: 2.8




South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 2.08  #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69  #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70  #78
2024 Talent Rating: 251.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8  #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9  #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Northwestern State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 68 PPG
Defense on Road: 68

Northwestern State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 32
Northwestern State 30

Projected Total Points: 61
South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/12South Alabama87Northwestern State10South Alabama -36.5South Alabama60.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Alabama111 Overs
Northwestern State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#) NWST at (#76) USA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNWSTUSA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #76
SP+SP+NR #61
Perf GradeGradeNR #59
OffenseOffNR #61
DefenseDefNR #65
Spec TeamsSTNR #111
TalentTalNR #95
Blue ChipsBC%NR #102
South Alabama Notes
(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
(9/8) Bad Ls vs N Tex & Ohio. QBs OK, D bad so far
South Alabama Injury Report
Northwestern State on Offense
CategoryCat
NWST OffUSA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #65
SuccessSucNR #17
ExplosiveExpNR #98
PPAPPANR #34
PowerPwrNR #78
SP+SP+NR #71
Pts POPPONR #21
HavocHavNR #65
Northwestern State Run Game
CategoryCat
NWST OffUSA Def
Run GameRunNR #45
Run SuccessRSucNR #8
Run ExplRExpNR #27
PPAExpNR #12
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #14
Stuff RateStuffNR #52
TackleTak -  #118
Northwestern State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NWST OffUSA Def
Pass GamePassNR #50
Pass SuccessPSucNR #44
Pass ExplPExlNR #124
PPAExpNR #109
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #109
F7 HavocF7NR #33
DB HavocDBNR #106
South Alabama on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUSA OffNWST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61NR
SuccessSuc #57NR
ExplosiveExp #6NR
PPAPPA #31NR
PowerPwr #16NR
SP+SP+ #47NR
Pts POPPO #15NR
HavocHav #61NR
South Alabama Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
USA OffNWST Def
Run GameRun #3NR
Run SuccessRSuc #80NR
Run ExplRExp #6NR
PPAExp #49NR
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #44NR
Stuff RateStuff #14NR
TackleTak - NR
South Alabama Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUSA OffNWST Def
Pass GamePass #84NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #35NR
Pass ExplPExl #34NR
PPAExp #26NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #39NR
F7 HavocF7 #76NR
DB HavocDB #27NR
Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

NWST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
South Alabama -36.5 (60.5)
South Alabama won vs Northwestern State this year (87-10)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Northwestern State in 2024 (87-10)

  
NWST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Northwestern State's Full Roster

NWST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Gotcher150000
Christian Williams110000
William White111000
Cadillac Rhone90000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Gotcher150000
Chancellor Owens40000
Myles Kitt-Denton10000
Isaiah Ybarra10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Mitchell61001
Blake Gotcher150000
Christian Hawkins30000

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Bishop Davenport487961%604317.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell112834137.459
Kentrel Bullock15283275.559
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Bishop Davenport3716114.450
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamaal Pritchett911126912.475
Jeremiah Webb36649518.052
Devin Voisin34407012.028
Shamar Sandgren19208110.921

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick1018232
Jaden Voisin844035
Darius McKenzie (Tr)724104
Jordan Scruggs705002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Courtney McBride3911530
Parker Shattuck113301
Tyler Thomas194300
Jordan Norman254322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amarion Fortenberry432006
Jaden Voisin844035
Darius McKenzie (Tr)724104